by Chuck Sommers
Thursday, Dec 08, 2022
Time: 1 p.m. ET
Venue: Highmark Stadium, Buffalo, NY
Where to watch: CBS
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Bills -9.5; Bills -425, Jets +340; O/U 43.5
FanDuel: Bills -9.5; Bills -430, Jets +340; O/U 43.5
BetMGM: Bills -9.5; Bills -455, Jets +333; O/U 44
Caesars: Bills -9.5; Bills -455, Jets +345; O/U 44
Season record
Jets: 7-5
Bills: 9-3
Week 14 is here in the NFL season and things are starting to heat up. Teams you didn’t expect to be in the hunt this late in the season are surely cashing in now, and you’re ready to enjoy the ride, I’m sure. What will this week hold with division races tightening up and playoff races hitting the first quarter mark? One thing you can surely count on is our champion handicappers making things happen. Brian Bitler has been killing it the last 30 days with a 16-8-0 mark. Matt Fargo has been just as efficient over the last month with a 17-10-1 run in the NFL. Both went 4-2-0 this past weekend in what was an entertaining slate of football. You’re going to want to be tuned in to bigal.com to find out what our champion handicappers are doing to get you across the finish line!
Jets - Bills preview, analysis and prediction
Last week
Jets: lost 27-22 at Vikings
Bills: won 24-10 at Patriots (Thursday night)
Jets analysis
Jets analysis
Not the greatest time for the New York Jets to falter here. Not only have they lost two of three, but alternating wins and losses in the last six has pushed the Jets further away from the playoff picture. Even getting 3 points against the Minnesota Vikings, the Jets couldn’t overcome the one-score loss curse against the Vikings, losing 27-22. The good news for the Jets is they appear to have a quarterback. Mike White threw for 369 yards, but also tossed two interceptions. They had a balanced attack going and had over 450 yards of total offense, but just weren’t able to get that last score.
“We stared adversity straight in the face and responded,” White said. "Just got to respond better.”
The Jets’ run against the spread has coincided with their straight-up record. They’re 6-4 in their last 10 straight up and ATS. Those losses have come when the Jets are underdogs and have been decided by three points or less (with the exception of the Sept. 25 loss to Cincinnati). Trying to gauge where this team is at is annoying, but you can see just how much White has changed this offense. In Zach Wilson’s last three starts before being benched, he went from 355 yards (completing below 50% of his passes), then 154 and 77 yards, respectively. Who knows if White is the answer, but so far, that’s the way the Jets have to go if they want to make a last-minute run into the playoffs.
Bills analysis
The Buffalo Bills have won five of seven and are back atop the AFC East with a month to go. On the books, though, it’s been a different story. The Bills are 3-4 against the spread during that run of seven games that started against the Kansas City Chiefs on Oct. 16. Since that night, reminding the world that the Bills are back, a couple oof losses to the Jets and Vikings have soured things a bit, but the Bills have gotten back on track and are returning to the field after a few extra days off since their 24-10 Thursday night win against the New England Patriots last week. Josh Allen threw for 223 yards and two touchdowns in what was a rather pedestrian outing for the MVP candidate.
“We know these games that are coming up, they matter,” Allen said. “The ones in December and January, they matter. We’ve got to find ways to go win some football games.”
It’s going to be an uphill climb for the Bills the rest of the way. Leading sack getter Von Miller is out for the rest of the year due to a torn ACL. He finished with 8 sacks in his first year off a mega deal with the Bills in the offseason. Buffalo’s defense will have to find ways to fill that void, but the scoring shouldn’t be an issue. The under is 6-1 in the Bills’ last seven conference games and is 4-0 following an ATS. The under has also cashed in five of the last seven meetings.
Prediction
The Jets, being an inconsistent spread team, are just 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Buffalo. That’s ranged from plenty of quarterbacks from both sides. The Jets getting 9.5 points is a tough call because the Bills are looking for revenge, but they’ve also failed to cover in four of their last six. Ultimately, losing that first meeting in MetLife is going to have a lasting effect and should lead the Bills to a two-score win. Bills by 13, take the under
Betting trends
The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
Jets are 4-0 ATS in their last four following a straight-up loss.
Jets are 5-0 ATS in their last five following an ATS loss.
The under is 5-0 in the Bills' last five after allowing 90 rushing yards or fewer in the last game.
Statistical leaders
Jets:
Passing: Zach Wilson -- 1,279 yards, 4 TD, 5 INT
Rushing: Breece Hall -- 463 yards, 4 TD
Receiving: Garrett Wilson -- 790 yards, 4 TD
Defense: Quinnen Williams -- 9 sacks
Bills:
Passing: Josh Allen -- 3,406 yards, 25 TD, 11 INT
Rushing: Devin Singletary -- 603 yards, 4 TD
Receiving: Stefon Diggs -- 1,202 yards, 10 TD
Defense: Von Miller -- 8 sacks
Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert football picks today. And if you enjoyed this New York Jets - Buffalo Bills prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily NFL projections and previews.
Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
