by Rod Pearson
Tuesday, Oct 03, 2023
Game Time: 1:00 pm ET, Sunday, October 8, 2023
Venue: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
Where to Watch: CBS
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Saints +1.5, Patriots -1.5; Over/Under: 40.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Saints +1.5, Patriots -1.5; Over/Under: 40.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Saints +1.5, Patriots -1.5; Over/Under: 40 points
Season Record
New Orleans Saints: 2-2 (3rd place, NFC South)
New England Patriots: 1-3 (3rd place, AFC East)
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New Orleans Saints: lost their last game at home against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26-9.
New England Patriots: lost their last game on the road against the Dallas Cowboys 38-3.
New Orleans Saints vs New England Patriots Preview and Analysis
The Saints are entering this game with a 2-2 record overall and they have a 1-1 record in their divisional games too. They are 1-1 in their home games, 1-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26-9. Derek Carr was the starting QB and he completed 23/37 passes for 127 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Alvin Kamara led the team in rushing yards with 51. Michael Thomas led the receivers with 53 receiving yards on 4 receptions. Pete Werner led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while Bryan Bresee led the defense in sacks with 1. Isaac Yiadom came away with the only interception for them in that game.
The Patriots are entering this game with a 1-3 record overall and they have a 1-1 record in their divisional games too. They are 0-2 in their home games, 1-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against the Dallas Cowboys 38-3. Mac Jones was the starting QB and he completed 12/21 passes for 150 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. Rhamondre Stevenson led the team in rushing yards with 30. Hunter Henry led the receivers with 51 receiving yards on 4 receptions. Kyle Dugger led the defense in that game with 12 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while Jahlani Tavai, Deatrich Wise Jr., and Josh Uche each led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception in that game.
Saints vs Patriots Prediction
The current betting odds have the Patriots listed as a 1.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Patriots are 1-3 this season and their offense has been terrible in their games but they are back at home after a blowout loss in Dallas and they will be looking to bounce back in this game. The Patriots are 0-2 in their home games this season but their defense has been good in those losses against tough offenses. They will have an easier time against the Saints here who haven't been putting up a ton of points in their games and were just held to no touchdowns at home by the Bucs in their last game. The Saints also have a good defense so the Patriots offense will struggle in this game but the Saints also gave up 26 points to the Bucs in their last game so the Patriots will be able to move the ball at home here. The Patriots are going to be desperate in this home game and they will find a way to win it. The best way to place a bet here is on the Patriots to cover the spread in this game.
Saints Patriots Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Sunday, October 8, 2023 (1:00 pm ET start time) is Patriots 13 Saints 6.
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NFL Betting Trends
New Orleans Saints: 9-16 ATS off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite. 8-14 ATS in games played on turf. 25-13 UNDER in all games. 14-6 UNDER as an underdog. 13-6 UNDER in road games. 13-3 UNDER in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points.
New England Patriots: 13-7 ATS as a favorite. 18-7 ATS after allowing 35 points or more last game. 44-25 ATS after a loss by 10 or more points. 13-7 UNDER in games where the line is +3 to -3. 14-7 UNDER against NFC South division opponents. 23-13 UNDER after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse.
Key Injuries
New Orleans Saints: J. Johnson (TE) day-to-day - Calf. L. Johnson Jr. (CB) day-to-day - Undisclosed. J. Howden (DB) day-to-day - Finger. C. Ruiz (C) day-to-day - Concussion. P. Adebo (CB) day-to-day - Hamstring. F. Moreau (TE) day-to-day - Ankle. J. Williams (RB) Out indefinitely - Hamstring. M. Maye (S) Elig Week 6 - Suspension. P. Turner (DE) Out indefinitely - Toe. J. Haener (QB) Elig Week 7 - Suspension. E. Benjamin (RB) I-R - Achilles. A. Dowell (LB) I-R - Knee. T. Turner (G) I-R - Quadricep.
New England Patriots: C. Gonzalez (CB) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. M. Judon (LB) Out indefinitely - Bicep. C. Strange (OL) day-to-day - Knee. J. Jones (DB) day-to-day - Ankle. K. Boutte (WR) day-to-day - Hamstring. D. Ekuale (DL) Out indefinitely - Bicep. M. Jones (DB) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. J. Jones (DB) Out indefinitely - Hamstring. R. Reiff (OL) Out indefinitely - Knee. T. Thornton (WR) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. T. Flowers (DE) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. C. Davis (DB) Out indefinitely - Knee. I. Bolden (CB) I-R - Neck. R. McMillan (LB) I-R - Achilles.
Notable Quotes
“I’ve got to make sure we put a better product on the field the next time we show up. When you get beat like that, you’ve got to look at it all. If you just said it was all in the execution then that would look like a freakin’ cop out, right? So, I think we’ve got to be better in a lot of areas.” - Dennis Allen after his team’s loss against the Bucs in their last game.
“We’re a lot better team than we showed out there tonight. Need to do a better job playing, coaching. Not much to say.” - Bill Belichick after his team’s loss against the Cowboys in their last game.
Starting Lineups
New Orleans Saints
WR THOMAS, MICHAEL
WR Shaheed, Rashid
WR Olave, Chris
TE Johnson, Juwan
QB CARR, DEREK
RB Kamara, Alvin
FB Prentice, Adam
New England Patriots
WR PARKER, DEVANTE
WR Bourne, Kendrick
WR Smith-Schuster, JuJu
TE Henry, Hunter
QB Jones, Mac
RB Stevenson, Rhamondre
Statistical Leaders
New Orleans Saints
Passing: D. Carr (763)
Rushing: T. Hill (101)
Receiving: C. Olave (306)
Touchdowns: T. Jones Jr. (2)
New England Patriots
Passing: M. Jones (898)
Rushing: R. Stevenson (164)
Receiving: H. Henry (176)
Touchdowns: K. Bourne (2)
Coaches:
New Orleans Saints: Dennis Allen (2nd season)
New England Patriots: Bill Belichick (24th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
