by Rod Pearson
Saturday, Oct 05, 2024
Game Time: 8:15 pm ET, Monday, October 7, 2024
Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Where to Watch: ESPN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Saints +5.5, Chiefs -5.5; Over/Under: 43.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Saints +5.5, Chiefs -5.5; Over/Under: 43.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Saints +5.5, Chiefs -5.5; Over/Under: 43 points
Season Record
New Orleans Saints: 2-2 (3rd place, NFC South)
Kansas City Chiefs: 4-0 (1st place, AFC West)
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Recent Form
New Orleans Saints: lost their last game on the road against the Atlanta Falcons 26-24.
Kansas City Chiefs: won their last game on the road against the Los Angeles Chargers 17-10.
New Orleans Saints vs Kansas City Chiefs Preview and Analysis
The Saints are entering this game with a 2-2 record overall and they have a 1-1 record in their divisional games too. They are 1-1 in their home games, 1-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against the Atlanta Falcons 26-24. Derek Carr was the starting QB and he completed 28/36 passes for 239 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Alvin Kamara led the team in rushing yards with 77 and 1 TD. Chris Olave led the receivers with 87 receiving yards on 8 receptions. Paulson Adebo led the defense in that game with 10 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Payton Turner led the defense in sacks with 1. Paulson Adebo came away with the only interception for them in that one.
The Chiefs are entering this game with a 4-0 record overall and they have a 1-0 record in their divisional games too. They are 2-0 in their home games, 2-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against the Los Angeles Chargers 17-10. Patrick Mahomes was the starting QB and he completed 19/29 passes for 245 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. Kareem Hunt led the team in rushing yards with 69. Travis Kelce led the receivers with 89 receiving yards on 7 receptions. Drue Tranquill led the defense in that game with 7 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while Chris Jones led the defense in sacks with 2. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
Saints vs Chiefs Prediction
The current betting odds have the Chiefs listed as a 5.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Chiefs have looked really good in their games this season with their 4-0 record overall. Their offense hasn't looked that great, but their defense has and they have been keeping teams off the board all year. They continue to pick up injuries on offense, but they are finding ways to win their games with Mahomes and the defense. Meanwhile, the Saints haven't looked bad in their games this season with their 2-2 record overall. They are coming off a tough division loss to the Falcons in their last one, but their offense has also died down after their first 2 games which they put up a ton of points in. They still have a great defense, but this Chiefs offense is always difficult to defend, especially in their home games. The Chiefs will be looking to stay undefeated and prove that they are still the best team in the NFL this year, even with all of their injuries piling up. The best way to place a bet here is on the Chiefs to cover the spread in this game.
Saints Chiefs Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Monday, October 7, 2024 (8:15 pm ET start time) is Chiefs 24 Saints 14.
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NFL Betting Trends
New Orleans Saints: 5-11 ATS in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points. 3-6 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record. 4-7 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65 yards/play or more. 23-15 UNDER in all games. 12-7 UNDER in road games. 13-5 UNDER after playing their last game on the road.
Kansas City Chiefs: 10-3 ATS in non-conference games. 10-5 ATS after 3 or more consecutive wins. 7-1 ATS versus good rushing teams - averaging 130 rushing yards/game or more. 27-18 under in all games. 16-5 under in home games. 8-4 under in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points. 10-2 under after playing a division game.
Key Injuries
New Orleans Saints: L. Patrick (OL) Injured - Groin. A. Kamara (RB) Injured - Hip. T. Hill (TE) Injured - Rib. C. Wilson (WR) Injured - Ankle. B. Grupe (K) Injured - Hip. P. Turner (DE) Injured - Knee. C. Ruiz (OL) Injured - Knee. W. Gay (LB) Injured - Hand. S. Lemieux (G) Injured - Ankle. J. Johnson (TE) Injured - Forearm. C. Olave (WR) Injured - Hamstring. A. Perry (WR) Injured - Hamstring. B. Bresee (DT) Injured - Ankle. K. Miller (RB) Injured - Hamstring. T. Fuaga (OT) Injured - Back.
Kansas City Chiefs: C. Edwards-Helaire (RB) Injured - Illness. K. Hunt (RB) Injured - Shoulder. D. Nnadi (DT) Injured - Triceps. M. Danna (DE) Injured - Calf. M. Hardman (WR) Injured - Knee. N. Bolton (LB) Injured - Hamstring.
Notable Quotes
“Those are the kind (of losses) that rip your heart out. I know we’ve got a good football team in that locker room. Now, we have to play better. We can’t spot a team 14 points — a good team — and expect to win those type of games.” - Dennis Allen after his team’s loss against the Falcons in their last game.
“I’m proud of our guys for hanging in there. Easily could have gone a different direction there, but the guys supported each other." - Andy Reid after his team’s win against the LA Chargers in their last game.
Starting Lineups
New Orleans Saints
WR Olave, Chris
WR Tipton, Mason
WR Shaheed, Rashid
TE Moreau, Foster
QB Carr, Derek
RB Kamara, Alvin
FB Prentice, Adam
Kansas City Chiefs
WR Watson, Justin
WR Worthy, Xavier
WR Smith-Schuster, JuJu
TE Kelce, Travis
QB Mahomes, Patrick
RB Hunt, Kareem
Statistical Leaders
New Orleans Saints
Passing: D. Carr (824)
Rushing: A. Kamara (362)
Receiving: C. Olave (265)
Touchdowns: A. Kamara (6)
Kansas City Chiefs
Passing: P. Mahomes (904)
Rushing: I. Pacheco (135)
Receiving: R. Rice (288)
Touchdowns: X. Worthy (3)
Coaches:
New Orleans Saints: Dennis Allen (3rd season)
Kansas City Chiefs: Andy Reid (12th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
