by Rod Pearson
Friday, Nov 24, 2023
Game Time: 1:00 pm ET, Sunday, November 25, 2023
Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Where to Watch: FOX
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Saints -1.5, Falcons +1.5; Over/Under: 41.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Saints -1.5, Falcons +1.5; Over/Under: 41.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Saints -1.5, Falcons +1.5; Over/Under: 41.5 points
Season Record
New Orleans Saints: 5-5 (1st place, NFC South)
Atlanta Falcons: 4-6 (2nd place, NFC South)
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Recent Form
New Orleans Saints: lost their last game on the road against the Minnesota Vikings 27-19.
Atlanta Falcons: lost their last game on the road against the Arizona Cardinals 25-23.
New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons Preview and Analysis
The Saints are entering this game with a 5-5 record overall and they have a 1-1 record in their divisional games too. They are 2-2 in their home games, 3-3 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against the Minnesota Vikings 27-19. Derek Carr was the starting QB and he completed 13/18 passes for 110 passing yards before leaving injured and getting replaced by Jameis Winston who completed 13/25 passes for 122 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. Alvin Kamara led the team in rushing yards with 42. Chris Olave led the receivers with 94 receiving yards on 6 receptions and 1 TD. Tyrann Mathieu led the defense in that game with 7 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle while Demario Davis led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that game.
The Falcons are entering this game with a 4-6 record overall and they have a 2-0 record in their divisional games too. They are 3-2 in their home games, 1-3 in their road games, and they are also 0-1 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against the Arizona Cardinals 25-23. Taylor Heinicke was the starting QB and he completed 8/15 passes for 55 passing yards and 1 TD before getting replaced by Desmond Ridder who completed 4/6 passes for 39 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Bijan Robinson led the team in rushing yards with 95 and 1 TD. Drake London led the receivers with 36 receiving yards on 3 receptions. Jessie Bates III led the defense in that game with 11 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Nate Landman and Kaden Elliss each led the defense in sacks with 1. Nate Landman came away with the only interception for them in that game.
Saints vs Falcons Prediction
The current betting odds have the Saints listed as a 1.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Saints haven't looked great in their games this season but they are 5-5 overall and have the best record in the NFC South right now. They are only 3-3 in their road games too but they just lost their last game in Minnesota and will be looking to bounce back here. Derek Carr did get injured in that loss but he will be back in this game and they have had an extra week to prepare since they are coming out of their bye week. Meanwhile, the Falcons are 4-6 overall this year and are 3-2 in their home games, but they haven't looked as good in their games lately as they have been regressing from their hot start to the season. The Falcons are also coming out of their bye week but they have had QB problems all season and with Carr back healthy in this game, the Saints will have a big edge on both defense and offense. The best way to place a bet here is on the Saints to cover the spread in this game.
Saints Falcons Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Sunday, November 25, 2023 (1:00 pm ET start time) is Saints 24 Falcons 16.
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NFL Betting Trends
New Orleans Saints: 23-15 ATS as a road favorite of 3 points or less. 6-2 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. 28-16 UNDER in all games. 15-8 UNDER in road games. 15-5 UNDER in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points.
Atlanta Falcons: 2-8 ATS in all games. 6-15 ATS in home games. 4-11 ATS in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points. 26-18 UNDER in all games. 17-9 UNDER as an underdog. 5-1 UNDER after 2 straight losses by 3 or less points.
Key Injuries
New Orleans Saints: J. Hurst (OL) Prob Sun - Illness. R. Ramczyk (OT) Ques Sun - Knee. D. Carr (QB) Prob Sun - Concussion. M. Thomas (WR) Out indefinitely - Knee. M. Lattimore (CB) Ques Sun - Ankle. K. Miller (RB) Ques Sun - Ankle. I. Foskey (DE) Ques Sun - Quadricep. J. Graham (TE) Ques Sun - Illness. P. Turner (DE) Out indefinitely - Toe. E. Benjamin (RB) I-R - Achilles. A. Dowell (LB) I-R - Knee. T. Turner (G) I-R - Quadricep.
Atlanta Falcons: Y. Koo (K) Ques Sun - Back. T. Heinicke (QB) Ques Sun - Hamstring. D. Onyemata (DL) Ques Sun - Ankle. M. Hollins (WR) Ques Sun - Ankle. D. Alford (CB) Ques Sun - Ankle. L. London (DL) Out indefinitely - Knee. G. Jarrett (DL) I-R - Knee. J. Ali (WR) Out indefinitely - Ankle. T. Andersen (LB) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. M. Hennessy (OL) I-R - Knee. A. Ogundeji (LB) I-R - Ankle. F. Franks (TE) I-R - Lower Body. E. Greenidge (OL) I-R - Leg. I. Enechukwu (DL) I-R - Undisclosed. A. Williams (RB) I-R - Knee.
Notable Quotes
“We can’t keep digging ourselves into these holes.” - Dennis Allen after his team’s loss against the Vikings in their last game.
“We're frustrated — anybody would be when you come up short. We have to fix what's been our issues and find a way to get back in the win column.” - Arthur Smith after his team’s loss against the Cardinals in their last game.
Starting Lineups
New Orleans Saints
WR Perry, A.T.
WR Olave, Chris
WR Shaheed, Rashid
TE Johnson, Juwan
QB Carr, Derek
RB Kamara, Alvin
Atlanta Falcons
WR London, Drake
WR Jefferson, Van
TE Pitts, Kyle
TE Smith, Jonnu
QB Ridder, Desmond
RB Robinson, Bijan
FB Smith, Keith
Statistical Leaders
New Orleans Saints
Passing: D. Carr (2231)
Rushing: A. Kamara (388)
Receiving: C. Olave (657)
Touchdowns: T. Hill (4)
Atlanta Falcons
Passing: D. Ridder (1740)
Rushing: B. Robinson (612)
Receiving: D. London (474)
Touchdowns: D. Ridder (4)
Coaches:
New Orleans Saints: Dennis Allen (2nd season)
Atlanta Falcons: Arthur Smith (3rd season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
