by Rod Pearson
Wednesday, Sep 25, 2024
Game Time: 1:00 pm ET, Sunday, September 29, 2024
Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Where to Watch: FOX
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Saints +2, Falcons -2; Over/Under: 42 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Saints +2, Falcons -2; Over/Under: 42.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Saints +2.5, Falcons -2.5; Over/Under: 42.5 points
Season Record
New Orleans Saints: 2-1 (1st place, NFC South)
Atlanta Falcons: 1-2 (3rd place, NFC South)
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Recent Form
New Orleans Saints: lost their last game at home against the Philadelphia Eagles 15-12.
Atlanta Falcons: lost their last game at home against the Kansas City Chiefs 22-17.
New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons Preview and Analysis
The Saints are entering this game with a 2-1 record overall and they have a 1-0 record in their divisional games too. They are 1-1 in their home games, 1-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against the Philadelphia Eagles 15-12. Derek Carr was the starting QB and he completed 14/25 passes for 142 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. Alvin Kamara led the team in rushing yards with 87. Chris Olave led the receivers with 86 receiving yards on 6 receptions and 1 TD. Paulson Adebo led the defense in that game with 10 solo tackles and 0 assisted tackles while Bryan Bresee led the defense in sacks with 2. Bryan Bresee came away with the only interception for them in that one.
The Falcons are entering this game with a 1-2 record overall and they have a 0-0 record in their divisional games too. They are 0-2 in their home games, 1-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-1 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against the Kansas City Chiefs 22-17. Kirk Cousins was the starting QB and he completed 20/29 passes for 230 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. Tyler Allgeier led the team in rushing yards with 32. Drake London led the receivers with 67 receiving yards on 6 receptions and 1 TD. Troy Andersen led the defense in that game with 7 solo tackles and 5 assisted tackles while no one on the defense recorded a sack for them. Justin Simmons came away with the only interception for them in that one.
Saints vs Falcons Prediction
The current betting odds have the Falcons listed as a 2 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Falcons haven't looked great in their games this season with their 1-2 record overall, but they have been getting better in each game. They won their first game of the season against the Eagles in a shocking upset, but they looked a lot better in their game against the Chiefs last week, even though they lost that game. Kirk Cousins is finally understanding the new offense better and the defense has played really well in their first 3 games too. Meanwhile, the Saints have looked good in their games this season with their 2-1 record overall and their 1-0 record in the division. They started the season 2-0 and looked great on offense, putting up over 40 points in both games, but they came back down to Earth in their last one as they lost at home to the Eagles in a low scoring 15-12 game. Now that the Eagles have shown how to beat them, the Falcons have the path to shut down this Saints offense that doesn't look as scary anymore. The Saints do have a really good defense too, but the Falcons are getting better in each game on offense and they are due for a big game at home after losing their first 2 games there. The best way to place a bet here is on the Falcons to cover the spread in this game.
Saints Falcons Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Sunday, September 29, 2024 (1:00 pm ET start time) is Falcons 27 Saints 20.
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NFL Betting Trends
New Orleans Saints: 6-3 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less. 4-0 ATS versus poor rushing defenses - allowing 130 rushing yards/game or more. 4-1 ATS vs. poor offensive teams - scoring 17 or less points/game. 12-6 UNDER in road games. 9-1 UNDER in a road game where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points. 10-2 UNDER versus division opponents.
Atlanta Falcons: 5-12 ATS as a favorite. 4-13 ATS in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points. 2-8 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game. 15-8 UNDER in games where the line is +3 to -3. 8-4 UNDER after a loss by 6 or less points. 7-0 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record.
Key Injuries
New Orleans Saints: T. Hill (TE) Out - Chest. W. Harris (CB) Questionable - Shin. A. Perry (WR) Questionable - Illness. C. Wilson (WR) Injured - Abdomen. L. Young (T) Questionable - Foot. T. Mathieu (SAF) Injured - Heel. R. Shaheed (WR) Injured - Hip. T. Fuaga (OT) Injured - Back. D. Jackson (LB) Questionable - Calf. K. Saunders (DT) Out - Calf. J. Ford (LB) Injured - Hamstring. M. Lattimore (CB) Injured - Hamstring.
Atlanta Falcons: G. Jarrett (DL) Injured - NIR - Rest. J. Matthews (T) Injured - NIR - Rest. D. Onyemata (DL) Injured - NIR - Rest. J. Smith-Williams (DL) Injured - Hip. T. Allgeier (RB) Injured - Hip. A. Hamilton (CB) Injured - Groin.
Notable Quotes
“I was trying to win the game and I felt like we needed to be able to get a yard. They did a better job up front than we did.” - Dennis Allen after his team’s loss against the Eagles in their last game.
“I feel like we’ve left a lot of opportunities out there on the field. I look forward to getting better.” - Kirk Cousins after their loss against the Chiefs in their last game.
Starting Lineups
New Orleans Saints
WR Olave, Chris
WR Tipton, Mason
WR Shaheed, Rashid
TE Moreau, Foster
QB Carr, Derek
RB Kamara, Alvin
FB Prentice, Adam
Atlanta Falcons
WR Mooney, Darnell
WR London, Drake
WR McCloud III, Ray-Ray
TE Pitts, Kyle
QB Cousins, Kirk
RB Robinson, Bijan
Statistical Leaders
New Orleans Saints
Passing: D. Carr (585)
Rushing: A. Kamara (285)
Receiving: C. Olave (178)
Touchdowns: A. Kamara (5)
Atlanta Falcons
Passing: K. Cousins (626)
Rushing: B. Robinson (196)
Receiving: D. Mooney (169)
Touchdowns: D. London (2)
Coaches:
New Orleans Saints: Dennis Allen (3rd season)
Atlanta Falcons: Raheem Morris (1st season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
