by Rod Pearson
Tuesday, Dec 30, 2025
Game Time: 1:00 pm ET, Sunday, January 4, 2026
Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Where to Watch: FOX
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Saints +3, Falcons -3; Over/Under: 43.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Saints +3, Falcons -3; Over/Under: 43.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Saints +3, Falcons -3; Over/Under: 43.5 points
Season Record
New Orleans Saints: 6-10 (4th place, NFC South)
Atlanta Falcons: 7-9 (3rd place, NFC South)
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Recent Form
New Orleans Saints: won their last game on the road against the Tennessee Titans 34-26.
Atlanta Falcons: won their last game at home against the Los Angeles Rams 27-24.
New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons Preview and Analysis
The Saints are entering this game with a 6-10 record overall and they have a 3-2 record in their divisional games too. They are 3-5 in their home games, 3-5 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against the Tennessee Titans 34-26. Tyler Shough was the starting QB and he completed 22/27 passes for 333 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Audric Estime led the team in rushing yards with 94 and 1 TD. Chris Olave led the receivers with 119 receiving yards on 8 receptions and 1 TD. Alontae Taylor led the defense in that game with 7 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Chase Young led the defense in sacks with 1.5. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
The Falcons are entering this game with a 7-9 record overall and they have a 2-3 record in their divisional games too. They are 3-4 in their home games, 4-4 in their road games, and they are also 0-1 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against the Los Angeles Rams 27-24. Kirk Cousins was the starting QB and he completed 13/20 passes for 126 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. Bijan Robinson led the team in rushing yards with 195 and 1 TD. David Sills led the receivers with 37 receiving yards on 3 receptions. Divine Deablo led the defense in that game with 7 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while Ruke Orhorhoro, Brandon Dorlus, and Leonard Floyd each led the defense in sacks with 1. Xavier Watts came away with 2 interceptions while Jessie Bates III came away with 1 INT for them in that one.
Saints vs Falcons Prediction
The current betting odds have the Falcons listed as a 3 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Falcons haven't looked good in their games this season with their 7-9 record overall which has them right near the bottom of the NFC South. They haven't looked great on their home field either with their 3-4 home record this season. Meanwhile, the Saints haven't looked good in their games this season with their 6-10 record overall which has them right at the bottom of the NFC South. They haven't been a great road team either with their 3-5 road record this year. The Saints are off a 34-26 win over the Titans in their last one and they have looked a lot better lately. They have won 4 games in a row now with a lot of momentum on their side, and Tyler Shough is starting to show that he could be the answer for this franchise. The Falcons have also been really hot lately though. They have won 3 games in a row now and they are off a 27-24 win over the Rams in their last one, a game where they were the better team from start to finish. As good as the Saints have looked lately, the Falcons have looked just as good and they do have a lot more talent on their team right now. The Falcons also have a QB in Kirk Cousins who is playing for a job next year, whether it is with the Falcons or not, and the team still has something to play for as they can keep the Buccaneers out of the playoffs with a win. The best way to place a bet here is on the Falcons to cover the spread in this game.
Saints Falcons Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Sunday, January 4, 2026 (1:00 pm ET start time) is Falcons 24 Saints 20.
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NFL Betting Trends
New Orleans Saints: 5-0 ATS revenging a same season loss against an opponent. 4-1 ATS on the road versus division opponents. 5-2 ATS on the road vs. bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game. 31-19 UNDER in all games. 16-7 UNDER after playing their last game on the road.
Atlanta Falcons: 19-29 ATS in all games. 5-11 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less. 6-11 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record. 7-4 UNDER after a win by 6 or less points. 19-11 UNDER in games where the line is +3 to -3.
Key Injuries
New Orleans Saints: C. Smyth (K) Questionable - Illness. A. Kamara (RB) Out - Knee. D. Godchaux (DL) Injured - NIR - Rest. N. Shepherd (DL) Injured - Ankle. C. Ruiz (OG) Out - Ankle. C. Olave (WR) Questionable - Back. A. Richards (OG) Injured - Ankle. B. Bresee (DL) Out - Knee. Z. Mitchell-Paden (TE) Out - Knee. M. Tipton (WR) Questionable - Groin. T. Shough (QB) Injured - Hip.
Atlanta Falcons: J. Matthews (OT) Injured - Rest. D. Onyemata (DL) Injured - Rest. L. Floyd (DL) Injured - Rest. J. Bates III (S) Injured - Rest. C. Woerner (TE) Injured - Rest. K. Elliss (LB) Injured - Rest. K. Pitts Sr. (TE) Injured - Knee. S. Roberts (DL) Out - Knee. R. Orhorhoro (DL) Injured - Knee. M. Hughes (CB) Out - Ankle. T. Quitoriano (TE) Injured - Hamstring. D. London (WR) Questionable - Knee. C. Phillips III (CB) Out - Triceps. J. Pearce Jr. (DL) Injured - Neck.
Notable Quotes
“He’s obviously having a special season. I know he doesn’t start the season as the starter, but just the way he’s handled himself through this whole journey, I think really, really special.” - Kellen Moore on Tyler Shough after his team’s win against the Titans in their last game.
“I think the defensive staff did a great job again, limiting a great football player.” - Raheem Morris after his team’s win against the LA Rams in their last game.
Starting Lineups
New Orleans Saints
WR Tipton, Mason
WR Austin Jr., Kevin
WR Olave, Chris
TE Johnson, Juwan
QB Shough, Tyler
RB Estimé, Audric
Atlanta Falcons
WR Mooney, Darnell
WR Sills V, David
WR London, Drake
TE Pitts Sr., Kyle
QB Cousins, Kirk
RB Robinson, Bijan
Statistical Leaders
New Orleans Saints
Passing: Tyler Shough (2,125)
Rushing: Alvin Kamara (471)
Receiving: Chris Olave (1,163)
Touchdowns: Chris Olave (9)
Atlanta Falcons
Passing: Michael Penix Jr. (1,982)
Rushing: Bijan Robinson (1,445)
Receiving: Kyle Pitts Sr. (870)
Touchdowns: Bijan Robinson (11)
Coaches:
New Orleans Saints: Kellen Moore (1st season)
Atlanta Falcons: Raheem Morris (2nd season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
