by Chuck Sommers
Monday, Jan 17, 2022
Time: 12:30 p.m. ET
Venue: TD Garden, Boston, MA
Where to watch: NBCSB, BSNO
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Celtics -5.5
BetMGM: Celtics -5.5
Caesars: Celtics -6.5
Season record
Celtics: 22-22 (11th place, Eastern Conference)
Pelicans: 16-27 (13th place, Western Conference)
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Celtics - Pelicans preview, analysis and prediction
It’s been a process for the Boston Celtics to crawl back to a .500 team, but I like them to win outright and cover in this Martin Luther King Day matchup against the New Orleans Pelicans at home on Monday.
It’s been a process for the Celtics to get back to competitive form this season, but they’ve won four of five and have begun to hover around the .500 mark entering the second half of the season.
But the Celtics, who are coming off a 114-112 win Saturday against the Chicago Bulls, are 2-6 against the spread in their last eight with the only covers against the Indiana Pacers and the New York Knicks. Boston is 6-3 straight up in the last nine.
"We've been in a lot of tough games like this and the guys have been growing from it," Celtics coach ime Udoka said following the tough win against the Conference-leading Bulls. "To the credit of our guys, they got down a little bit and never hung their heads, continued to fight and dug their way back out of it."
The Celtics have had to go most of this season without one, or sometimes, both of All-Star forwards Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. When both are in the lineup, the Celtics will have enough to be a contender in the East. Tatum led the Celtics with 23 points and 12 rebounds despite shooting 8 of 24, while Brown had 19 points and 19 rebounds.
Boston has been able to take care of business at home over the past three seasons, going 60-33 straight up and 14-8 outright this season. Against the spread is a different story; the Celtics are just 10-12 ATS and a .500 team on the books over the past three seasons.
I think it’s safe to think the Pelicans wish something like that for themselves, but the past five games have been great. The Pels are 3-2 outright and have covered in four of their past five; they had a run of four in a row ATS end on Saturday in a 15-point loss to the shorthanded Brooklyn Nets.
Brandon Ingram had 22 points but took 21 shots to get there, and all five starters reached double figures for the Pelicans. Despite only facing Kevin Durant for 12 minutes, James Harden and Patty Mills did enough damage to fend off New Orleans.
The Pelicans are just 7-15 ATS on the road this season but are 40-46 over the past three seasons; keep in mind that’s happened without a full, healthy roster. New Orleans still doesn’t have Zion Williamson and he’s the main reason why the Pelicans are on this MLK Day marquee.
New Orleans has not been good when the line is lower; when a road dog of six points or less, the Pelicans are just 1-4 this season and 14-14 in their last 28. Ingram will have his hands full trying to slow down Tatum or Brown, and I don’t see New Orleans’ depth making enough of an impact to keep this close. Celtics by 12
Betting trends
The Pelicans are 4-1 ATS in their last five after scoring 100 points the previous game.
The under is 4-1 in the Pelicans' last five.
The Celtics are 1-7 ATS in their last eight as a favorite.
The Celtics are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games against teams with a losing road record.
The under is 14-6 in the last 20 meetings in Boston.
Projected starting lineup
Pelicans:
PG: Devonte' Graham
SG: Brandon Ingram
SF: Josh Hart
PF: Herbert Jones
C: Jonas Valanciunas
SF: Josh Hart
PF: Herbert Jones
C: Jonas Valanciunas
Celtics:
PG: Payton Pritchard
SG: Jaylen Brown
SF: Jayson Tatum
PF: Al Horford
C: Robert Williams
SF: Jayson Tatum
PF: Al Horford
C: Robert Williams
Key injuries
Pelicans: Zion Williamson (foot, out)
Celtics: Marcus Smart (COVID, out)
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
