by Amedeus Mastrangelo
Monday, Sep 27, 2021
Game Time: 10:30 pm ET, Saturday, October 2, 2021
Venue: CEFCU Stadium, San Jose, CA
Where to Watch: TBD
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: NMSU +27.5, SJSU -27.5; Over/Under: 52.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: NMSU +27.5, SJSU -27.5; Over/Under: 51 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: NMSU NL, SJSU NL; Over/Under: 51.5 points
Season Record
New Mexico State Aggies: 1-4 (5th place, FBS Independents)
San Jose State Spartans: 2-2 (2nd place, MW West)
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New Mexico State Aggies vs San Jose State Spartans Preview and Analysis
Recent Form
New Mexico State Aggies: lost at home on Sep. 25 against the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 41-21.
San Jose State Spartans: lost on the road on Sep. 25 against the Western Michigan Broncos 23-3.
New Mexico State Aggies Analysis
New Mexico State is coming into this game with a 1-4 record overall and they are 0-2 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. Their lone win this season came against the South Carolina State Bulldogs. Their 4 losses came against the UTEP Miners, the San Diego State Aztecs, the New Mexico Lobos, and the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors in their last game. Jonah Johnson did not have the best game in that one as he completed 28/47 passes for 280 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. Juwaun Price led the team in rushing with 72 yards on 9 carries but they did not really have much of a run game in that one. The receiving corps did have a nice day as Jared Wyatt led the team in receiving with 114 yards on 9 receptions while Thomaz Whitford had 6 catches for 88 yards. Trevor Brohard led the defense with 7 solo tackles and 2 assisted ones. Chris Ojoh led the defense in sacks with 2 while Donovan King also recorded 1 but it was Syrus Dumas who came away with the only interception for them in that game. They have scored 102 points in their first 5 games and they have allowed their opponents to score 168 points against them. The Aggies’ offense is averaging 347.4 YPG while New Mexico State’s defense is allowing 458.8 YPG.
San Jose State Spartans Analysis
SJSU is coming into this game with a 2-2 record overall and they are 1-0 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. This will be their last non-conference game of the regular season as their conference schedule will begin the week after this on their upcoming schedule. Their 2 wins this season came against the Southern Utah Thunderbirds and the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors while their 2 losses came against the USC Trojans and WMU in their last game. Nick Starkel had an awful game in that one as he completed 6/14 passes for 55 total yards and 1 interception. He left that game early with an injury. Tyler Nevens led the team in rushing with 94 yards on 15 carries but he was really the only thing this offense had going for them in that game. Their receiving corps were very quiet as Isaiah Hamilton led the team in receiving yards with 27 yards on 3 grabs but no touchdown passes. Kyle Harmon led the defense with 7 solo tackles and 3 assisted ones while Nehemiah Shelton was right behind him with 7 solo tackles and 1 assisted one. Junior Fehoko led the defense in sacks with 2 while Christian Webb and Rico Tolefree both had 1 sack each themselves. No one on the defense came away with an interception in that game or any turnovers. They have scored 72 points in their first 4 games and they have allowed their opponents to score 80 points against them. Their offense is averaging 332.3 YPG while their defense is allowing 345.5 YPG.
New Mexico State vs San Jose State Prediction
SJSU has not been that good on offense this year as they have scored no more than 17 points in a game against an FBS team this season. The game they scored 45 in was against an FCS opponent and even then they barely won that game by 30 points. The spread is very large in this one and although New Mexico State has been really bad this year, they have not lost any games by more than 20 points except for their season-opener but that was their first game back in a while and they only lost that game by 27, covering this specific +27.5 point spread against every team they have played this year. The best bet to make in this game is on New Mexico State to cover the spread here as SJSU has not been amazing on offense so it is unlikely that they win this game by over 30 points.
New Mexico State San Jose State Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, October 2, 2021 (10:30 pm ET start time) is SJSU 37 NMSU 20.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
New Mexico State Aggies: 111-146 ATS in all games. 60-83 ATS in road games. 19-43 ATS off a home loss.
San Jose State Spartans: 146-136 ATS in all games. 63-55 ATS in home games.
Key Injuries
New Mexico State Aggies: W. Eget (QB) day-to-day - Knee injury. D. Gicinto (WR) out for season - Wrist injury.
San Jose State Spartans: N. Starkel (QB) Ques. - Left Arm injury.
Players to Watch
New Mexico State Aggies: Juwaun Price is one player to watch here as he has a team-high in rushing and in touchdowns this season. His team has not played well this season but if their offense is to move the ball here he will be involved in some way. Look for him to get the carries and try and find the end zone in this one.
San Jose State Spartans: Tyler Nevens is one player to watch here. He leads his team in rushing yards and in touchdowns. With Starkel possibly unable to play here he will have to pick up the slack a bit in this game to relieve the pressure so look for him to be a focal point of the offense in this game.
Notable Quotes
"It still comes down to just players making plays and taking advantage of opportunities. We made some good things happen in the second half too, but just not enough. It's just learning how to finish games." - Doug Martin after his team lost by 20 points at home to Hawaii.
“It’s big, I’m not going to lie to you.” - Tyler Nevens on losing quarterback Nick Starkel in their last game as he went out with an injury.
Starting Lineups
New Mexico State Aggies
WR Wyatt, Jared
WR Garcia-Castaneda, Isaiah
WR Harrity, Cole
TE Whitford, Thomaz
QB Maldonado, Dino
RB Samuels, O'Maury
San Jose State Spartans
WR Ross, Charles
WR Hamilton, Isaiah
WR Braddock, Jermaine
TE Deese Jr., Derrick
QB Starkel, Nick
RB Nevens, Tyler
Statistical Leaders
New Mexico State Aggies
Passing: J. Johnson (721)
Rushing: J. Price (228)
Receiving: J. Wyatt (256)
Touchdowns: J. Price (2)
Sacks: C. Ojoh (4)
Tackles: M. Bowe Jr. (16)
San Jose State Spartans
Passing: N. Starkel (992)
Rushing: T. Nevens (243)
Receiving: I. Hamilton (195)
Touchdowns: T. Nevens (2)
Sacks: V. Fehoko (3)
Tackles: N. Shelton (19)
Coaches:
New Mexico State Aggies: Doug Martin (9th season)
San Jose State Spartans: Brent Brennan (5th season)
Weather Forecast
76 degrees F mostly sunny, 39% humidity, 0% chance of rain, up to 10 mph wind speeds N.
Amedeus Mastrangelo
About the Author:
Amedeus Mastrangelo has been heavily wagering on all sports for years and plays just about everything, including sides, totals, favorites, underdogs, against the spread, alternative spreads, first half, second half, player props, and futures. The bottom line is, if Mastrangelo can see an edge in any way shape or form, then he's going to take advantage.
