New Mexico State Aggies vs New Mexico Lobos Prediction, Odds and Preview - 09/10/2021

by Amedeus Mastrangelo

Game Time: 7:00 pm ET, Saturday, September 11, 2021
Venue:  University Stadium, Albuquerque, NM
Where to Watch:  Stadium 

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Aggies +19, Lobos -19; Over/Under:  55.5 points
Bet365:  Point Spread:  Aggies +19, Lobos -19; Over/Under:  56 points
BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Aggies +19, Lobos -19; Over/Under:  56 points

Season Record

New Mexico State Aggies:  0-2 (7th place, Independents)
New Mexico Lobos:  1-0 (2nd place, MW Mountain)
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New Mexico State Aggies vs New Mexico Lobos Preview and Analysis

Recent Form
New Mexico State Aggies:  lost 2
New Mexico Lobos:  won 1

Offensive Analysis

Last season the New Mexico State Aggies averaged a 61.8% completion percentage, 209.5 passing yards, and 1 touchdown per game through the air. They also averaged 212.5 rushing yards and 1.5 touchdowns per game on the ground. The New Mexico Lobos were averaging a 56.7% completion percentage, 198 passing yards, and 1.1 touchdowns per game through the air. They also averaged 195.7 rushing yards and 1.7 touchdowns per game on the ground.

Defensive Analysis

Last season the New Mexico State Aggies were allowing teams a 60.6% completion percentage, 305.5 passing yards, and 1.5 touchdowns per game through the air. They also allowed 199.5 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns per game on the ground. The New Mexico Lobos were allowing teams a 65.3% completion percentage, 283 passing yards, and 2.6 touchdowns per game through the air. They also allowed 164.3 rushing yards and 1.3 touchdowns per game on the ground.


Aggies vs Lobos Prediction

New Mexico State University is coming into this college football game sitting in 7th place of the Independents NCAA division with a 0-2 record and they have not had a tough schedule so far. The New Mexico State football schedule has been weak as they lost their first game of the college football season to UTEP at Aggie Memorial Stadium and their last game to the San Diego State Aztecs 28-10. They have played in 2 games now and have only been able to score 13 points total. Jonah Johnson was the only quarterback who played for them in the last game and he struggled a lot completing 34/56 passes for 326 yards, 1 touchdown and 3 interceptions. They did not have much of a run game either as O'Maury Samuels led the team with 35 rushing yards on 6 carries. Terrell Warner had an alright day receiving for 79 yards on 10 receptions as well as Jared Wyatt who had 74 yards on 5 receptions. Dominic Gicinto had 64 receiving yards on 7 catches and has the only touchdown scored for them all season. Joshua Ferguson and Eric Marsh both led the defense with 4 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles each. Chris Ojoh and De'Shawn Johnson both recorded 1 sack each in the game and Caleb Mills caught the only interception for them.

The New Mexico football team are coming into this matchup sitting in 2nd place of the Mountain West Mountain rankings with a 1-0 record. They won their season opener but it was against HBU in the FCS not an FBS opponent. Terry Wilson Jr played great in their last game completing 20/26 passes for 174 yards and 3 touchdowns. Aaron Dumas led the running game with 57 rushing yards on 15 carries. Ken Lanier led the receivers with 72 yards and 1 touchdown on 3 receptions. Kyle Jarvis and Trace Bruckler also each found the end zone for a touchdown pass each. Tavian Combs led the way on defense with 8 solo tackles, 4 assisted tackles, and 1 interception. Reco Hannah, Dion Hunter, Langston Murray, Jake Saltonstall, and Justin Harris all recorded 1 sack each in the game and Ray Leutele also had 1 interception as well.

New Mexico State has been awful so far but they are not that bad of a team and it is bound to turn around even a bit. New Mexico barely beat a very weak HBU team by 10 points and is now the favorite by 19. This is a big rivalry game so neither team will take this game lightly. There is some value to bet on New Mexico State to cover such a large spread in this game. 

Aggies Lobos Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Sep 11, 2021 (7:00 pm ET start time) is Lobos 24 Aggies 13.
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NCAAF Betting Trends

New Mexico State Aggies: 1-4 ATS as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points. 4-8 ATS as an underdog.
New Mexico Lobos: 3-1 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56.

Key Injuries

New Mexico State Aggies:  D. Gicinto (WR) Ques Sat - Wrist injury.
New Mexico Lobos:  I. Chavez (QB) Ques Sat - Concussion injury. B. Cole (RB) Ques Sat - Ankle injury.

Players to Watch

New Mexico State Aggies: Jonah Johnson is one player to watch in this one as no other players really stood out in the last game. He did play alright gaining a lot of passing yards but he will need to cut down on the turnovers if he wants to give his team a chance for an upset here.
New Mexico Lobos: Terry Wilson Jr is one player to watch in these home games. He played well in the last game throwing for over 150 yards and 3 touchdowns. He will have to keep that up in this game as the Aggies will be coming for their first win. Watch for him to make the big plays that may or may not lead his team to victory here.

Notable Quotes

“Anytime you play an in-state rivalry game it’s special. You know, like a UTEP deal, it’s not an in-state deal. We’re close together. The in-state games always have more weight to them. It’s a big game.” - Doug Martin on the meaning of this rivalry game coming up.
“This is our state. It might be bulletin board material; that’s fine. This is a rivalry. They shouldn’t need to read something on a board to figure out how important this game is.” - Head football coach Danny Gonzales on his team’s mentality coming into this battle of Nevada.

Starting Lineups

New Mexico State Aggies
WR Wyatt, Jared 
WR Garcia-Castaneda, Isaiah 
WR Harrity, Cole 
TE Whitford, Thomaz 
QB Johnson, Jonah 
RB Samuels, O'Maury 
New Mexico Lobos
WR Erickson, Andrew 
WR Lanier, Keyonta 
WR Logan-Greene, Mannie 
TE Jarvis, Kyle 
QB Wilson, Terry 
RB Cole, Bobby 

Statistical Leaders

New Mexico State Aggies
Passing: J. Johnson (408)
Rushing: O. Samuels (63)
Receiving: D. Gicinto (95)
Touchdowns: D. Gicinto (1)
Sacks: C. Ojoh (1)
Tackles: J. Ferguson (9)
New Mexico Lobos
Passing: T. Wilson (174)
Rushing: A. Dumas (57)
Receiving: K. Lanier (72)
Touchdowns: K. Lanier (1)
Sacks: R. Hannah (1)
Tackles: P. Peek (3)
New Mexico State Aggies: Doug Martin (9th season)
New Mexico Lobos: Danny Gonzales (2nd season)

Weather Forecast

89 degrees F mostly sunny, 22% humidity, 0% chance of rain, up to 9 mph wind speeds SW.

Amedeus Mastrangelo

About the Author:

Amedeus Mastrangelo has been heavily wagering on all sports for years and plays just about everything, including sides, totals, favorites, underdogs, against the spread, alternative spreads, first half, second half, player props, and futures. The bottom line is, if Mastrangelo can see an edge in any way shape or form, then he's going to take advantage.

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