New Mexico State Aggies vs Nevada Wolf Pack Game Preview and Prediction - 10/09/2021

by Amedeus Mastrangelo

Game Time: 10:30 pm ET, Saturday, October 9, 2021
Venue:  Mackay Stadium, Reno, NV
Where to Watch:  CBS Sports


Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  New Mexico State +33.5, Nevada -33.5; Over/Under:  61.5 points
Bet365:  Point Spread:  New Mexico State +33.5, Nevada -33.5; Over/Under:  61.5 points
BetMGM:  Point Spread:  New Mexico State +33.5, Nevada -33.5; Over/Under:  61.5 points

Season Record

New Mexico State Aggies:  1-5 (5th place, FBS Independents)
Nevada Wolf Pack:  3-1 (1st place, MW West)
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New Mexico State Aggies vs Nevada Wolf Pack Preview and Analysis

Recent Form
New Mexico State Aggies:  lost on the road on Oct. 2 against the San Jose State Spartans 37-31.
Nevada Wolf Pack:  won on the road on Oct. 2 against the Boise State Broncos 41-31.

New Mexico State Aggies Analysis

New Mexico State is coming into this game with a 1-5 record overall and they are 0-3 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. Their 1 win came against the South Carolina State Bulldogs while their 5 losses came against the UTEP Miners, the SDSU Aztecs, the New Mexico Lobos, the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors, and against SJSU in their last game. Jonah Johnson played a pretty good game for them at the quarterback position in their last one as he completed 30/44 passes for 300 yards, 3 touchdown passes, and 1 interception. They did not have much of a run game though as O'Maury Samuels led the team in rushing with 57 yards on 11 carries. Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda led the receivers with 90 yards and 2 touchdowns on 6 carries. The ball was spread around quite a bit in this offense as no other one player stood out heavily in that game for them. Nick Giacolone led the defense with 6 solo tackles and 5 assisted ones while Caleb Mills was right behind him with 4 solo tackles and 5 assisted ones. No one on the defense recorded a sack in that game or had an interception either. They have scored 133 points in their first 6 games and they have allowed their opponents to score 205 points against them. Their offense is averaging 353.8 YPG while their defense is allowing 449.8 YPG.

Nevada Wolf Pack Analysis

Nevada is coming into this game with a 3-1 record overall and they are 1-0 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are 1-0 in their conference games this season but this will be their last non-conference game on their schedule this year. Their 1 loss came against the Kansas State Wildcats while their 3 wins came against the California Golden Bears, the Idaho State Bengals, and against BSU in their last game. Carson Strong had a very strong performance in their last game as he completed 25/38 passes for 263 yards and 1 touchdown. Toa Taua had a massive day on the ground as he led the team in rushing with 124 yards and 2 touchdowns on 12 carries. Devonte Lee also found the end zone on the ground once in that game but had just 24 rushing yards as Taua was the entire running game for them. Justin Lockhart led the team in receiving with 94 yards on 5 receptions while Cole Turner was right behind him with 67 yards receiving and 1 TD on 6 receptions. Jordan Lee led the defense with 7 solo tackles and 1 assisted one while Lawson Hall was right behind with 6 solo tackles and 3 assisted ones. Daiyan Henley also had a great game with 6 solo tackles, 1 assisted one and 1 interception in that game. That was the only interception for them in that game while Dom Peterson and Tristan Nichols both led the team in sacks with 2 each. AJ King and Sam Hammond also had 1 sack each as well. They have scored 129 points in their first 4 games and they have allowed their opponents to score 96 points against them. Their offense is averaging 420.8 YPG while their defense is allowing 365.3 YPG.


New Mexico State vs Nevada Prediction

Nevada is not as good as their record suggests them to be. They got a big win against Boise State last week but that would have been their most impressive win of the season. They have also not beat a single opponent from the FBS this year by more than 10 points and they are favored by 33.5 here. New Mexico State has been a 30 point or more underdog in a few different games this year but they have not lost a single game by that amount. Their largest margin of defeat was by 27 points to UTEP and that was back in their first game of the season. They have been getting better each week as the season goes on and they have played much closer to their opponents in their last few games. They were a 30 point underdog last week against SJSU and they scored 31 points themselves in that game losing by just 6 on the road. They will be competitive here and keep this one a close game. The best bet to make in this game is on New Mexico State to cover the spread.
New Mexico State Nevada Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, October 9, 2021 (10:30 pm ET start time) is Nevada 42 New Mexico State 27.
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NCAAF Betting Trends

New Mexico State Aggies: 112-146 ATS in all games. 26-45 ATS when the total is between 56.5 and 63. 90-111 ATS as an underdog. 61-83 ATS in road games. 
Nevada Wolf Pack: 142-133 ATS in all games. 73-53 ATS in home games. 72-59 ATS after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers.

Key Injuries

New Mexico State Aggies:  W. Eget (QB) Out indefinitely - Knee injury. D. Gicinto (WR) out for season - Wrist injury.
Nevada Wolf Pack:  T. Williams (DB) Out indefinitely - Knee injury. E. Cooks (WR) out for season - Foot injury.

Players to Watch

New Mexico State Aggies: Jonah Johnson is one player to watch in this game. He is the leader of this offense and leads them in passing yards this season. He has looked much better in their recent games so look for him to keep improving here and keep his team competitive for the win in this game.
Nevada Wolf Pack: Toa Taua is one player to watch in this game. He leads his team in rushing yards and he is coming off of a big game where he rushed for over 100 yards. They have found success with him on the ground all year so they will try to use him to control the ground game in this one. Look for him to get a lot of touches here. 

Notable Quotes

"I was really proud of the effort our guys played with tonight. We battled back from multiple deficits and cut it to a two-point game in the fourth quarter. I thought Jonah [Johnson] played remarkably well. He threw for 300 yards, three touchdowns and had just the one turnover. We played our best offensive game of the season against one of the top defenses in the Mountain West. Our guys played with a lot of character and heart tonight. Nobody can question this team's effort. We'll keep battling. I told our guys in the lockerroom that they have no reason to hang their heads at all, and every reason to be proud of the effort they gave. We just came up a little short against a really good team." - Doug Martin after a close loss to SJSU in their last game.
“This is the first game this season where we’ve really complemented each other. When the defense made a big play, the offense scored, and vice versa. That’s the style of football we like to play — physical and hard, fearless. That’s what we want, and now we want to build on that.” - Jay Norvell on his team’s performance in their win over BSU.

Starting Lineups

New Mexico State Aggies
WR Wyatt, Jared 
WR Garcia-Castaneda, Isaiah 
WR Harrity, Cole 
TE Whitford, Thomaz 
QB Johnson, Jonah 
RB Samuels, O'Maury  
Nevada Wolf Pack
WR Cooks, Elijah 
WR Doubs, Romeo 
WR Stovall, Melquan 
TE Turner, Cole 
QB Strong, Carson 
RB Taua, Toa 

Statistical Leaders

New Mexico State Aggies
Passing: J. Johnson (1021)
Rushing: J. Price (233)
Receiving: J. Wyatt (308)
Touchdowns: I. Garcia-Castaneda (4)
Sacks: C. Ojoh (4)
Tackles: M. Bowe Jr. (19)
Nevada Wolf Pack
Passing: C. Strong (1218)
Rushing: T. Taua (279)
Receiving: R. Doubs (304)
Touchdowns: E. Cooks (4)
Sacks: D. Grzesiak (2)
Tackles: D. Henley (22)
New Mexico State Aggies: Doug Martin (9th season)
Nevada Wolf Pack: Jay Norvell (5th season)

Weather Forecast

62 degrees F sunny, 45% humidity, 0% chance of rain, up to 7 mph wind speeds N.

Amedeus Mastrangelo

About the Author:

Amedeus Mastrangelo has been heavily wagering on all sports for years and plays just about everything, including sides, totals, favorites, underdogs, against the spread, alternative spreads, first half, second half, player props, and futures. The bottom line is, if Mastrangelo can see an edge in any way shape or form, then he's going to take advantage.

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