New Mexico State Aggies vs Minnesota Golden Gophers Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 09/01/2022

Game Time: 9:00 pm ET, Thursday, September 1, 2022

Venue:  Huntington Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN

Where to Watch:  Big Ten Network

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  NM State +36.5, Minnesota -36.5; Over/Under:  56 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  NM State +37, Minnesota -37; Over/Under:  56 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  NM State +37.5, Minnesota -37.5; Over/Under:  55.5 points

 

New Mexico State Aggies:  0-1 (7th place, FBS Independents)

Minnesota Golden Gophers:  0-0 (Big Ten West)

 

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New Mexico State Aggies:  lost their last game at home 23-12 against the Nevada Wolf Pack.

Minnesota Golden Gophers:  N/A

 

NM State is entering this game with a 0-1 record overall to start their college football season and they will be playing their 1st road game of the season here. They lost to the Nevada Wolf Pack in their last game at home 23-12 in Week 0. Diego Pavia started in that game at QB but he completed 9/20 passes for 75 yards and 3 interceptions which got him pulled for Gavin Frakes. Gavin Frakes ended up completing 9/13 passes for 143 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. Pavia led the team in rushing yards with 36 on 5 rushing attempts while Justice Powers led the team in receiving yards with 74 on 2 receptions. Bryce Jackson led the defense in that game with 7 solo tackles and 1 assist while no one on the defense had a sack or an interception. 

 

 

 

Minnesota is playing their season opener here on Thursday and this will also be their first home game on the college football schedule this season. They finished last season with a 9-4 record overall and were 4-3 in their home games. They were also 6-3 with their conference record and finished in 2nd place in the Big Ten West. They ended their season off with an 18-6 win against West Virginia in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl. Their offense was averaging 361.3 YPG and 25.5 PPG while their defense was allowing 279 YPG and 17.3 PPG against them. Tanner Morgan led the team in passing with 2,044 passing yards, Ky Thomas led the team in rushing with 824 rushing yards, and Chris Autman-Bell led the team in receiving with 506 receiving yards. 

The current betting odds have NM State listed as a 36.5 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. NM State had an awful season last year as they finished 2-10 and they are already off to a losing start this year with a loss in their first game last week. They do have a bit of an advantage though since they have actually played in a game this season and had a chance to test out some different players and see how their team works together on the field. Minnesota is a much better team but they still have not played a game yet this season and they were not even that great at home last season either, coming off of a pretty bad season overall for them. A lot of their players have returned for this season but that does not help much when these are the same players who played in a lot of tight games last season, including a very close win over Miami-Ohio and an awful loss to BGSU. Minnesota is almost a 40 point favorite here but not only did they not win a single game by that many points last season, they only scored over 40 points in 1 game all year. NM State has been improving a lot though and their defense was actually good in their last game as they did not allow too many points and really get blown out. They will continue to improve in this game since they have already played and know what changes they need to make, and even if they do not score a single point here, Minnesota does not have the offense to even cover this spread by scoring that many points in the game. The best way to place a bet here is on NM State to cover the spread in this game.

 

New Mexico State Minnesota Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Thursday, September 1, 2022 (9:00 pm ET start time) is Minnesota 35 NM State 14.

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New Mexico State Aggies: 14-8 ATS as an underdog of 31 or more points. 33-21 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56. 16-9 OVER after allowing 125 or less passing yards in their last game.

Minnesota Golden Gophers: 27-20 ATS in the first two weeks of the season. 19-13 OVER in a home game where the total is between 52.5 and 56. 

 

 

New Mexico State Aggies:  D. Maldonado (QB) out for season - Shoulder.

Minnesota Golden Gophers:  None.

 

 

"He coached with me, but after that, he changed a lot. I’ll just be honest with you guys. People that have known him before — When he got with [Greg] Schiano, his personality changed a lot. And I knew his first wife, and he just changed a bunch. And then once he became a head coach, I mean, I helped him get the job at Western Michigan, and I just think sometimes, ego gets carried away." - Jerry Kill on P.J. Fleck before his team’s game against Minnesota on Thursday.

 

 

"There's a tradition that goes 100 years ago of coaches meeting at midfield. It has nothing to do with this, but I've been a head coach [for] 10 years and I haven't not shaken one head coach's hand in my entire career." - P.J. Fleck on Jerry Kill before his team’s season opener on Thursday.

 

 

 

WR Powers, Justice

WR David, Kordell

WR Parker, Jordin 

TE Whitford, Thomaz

TE Marsh, Eric

QB Pavia, Diego

RB Jones, Jamoni 

 

WR Wright, Dylan

WR Autman-Bell, Chris

WR Brown-Stephens, Michael 

TE Spann-Ford, Brevyn

QB Morgan, Tanner

RB Ibrahim, Mohamed 

 

 

Passing: G. Frakes (143)

Rushing: D. Pavia (36)

Receiving: J. Powers (74)

Touchdowns: K. David (1)

 

Passing: N/A

Rushing: N/A

Receiving: N/A

Touchdowns: N/A

 

Coaches:

New Mexico State Aggies: Jerry Kill (1st season)

Minnesota Golden Gophers: P.J. Fleck (6th season)