by Rod Pearson
Monday, Oct 23, 2023
Game Time: 7:00 pm ET, Tuesday, October 24, 2023
Venue: Joe Aillet Stadium, Ruston, LA
Where to Watch: CBS Sports
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: NMSU +3, LA Tech -3; Over/Under: 52 points
Bet365: Point Spread: NMSU +3, LA Tech -3; Over/Under: 51.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: NMSU +3, LA Tech -3; Over/Under: 51.5 points
Season Record
New Mexico State Aggies: 5-3 (3-1) (3rd place, C-USA)
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs: 3-5 (2-2) (5th place, C-USA)
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Recent Form
New Mexico State Aggies: won their last game on the road against the UTEP Miners 28-7.
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs: lost their last game on the road against the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 31-23.
New Mexico State Aggies vs Louisiana Tech Bulldogs Preview and Analysis
New Mexico State is entering this game with a 5-3 record overall and they have a 3-1 record in their conference games too. They are 3-1 in their home games, 2-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against UTEP 28-7. Diego Pavia was the starting QB and he completed 15/25 passes for 186 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Ahmonte Watkins led the team in rushing yards with 109. Eli Stowers led the receivers with 80 receiving yards on 5 receptions. Keyshaun Elliott led the defense in that game with 3 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Buddha Peleti led the defense in sacks with 2. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that game.
Louisiana Tech is entering this game with a 3-5 record overall and they have a 2-2 record in their conference games too. They are 2-2 in their home games, 1-3 in their road games, and they are also 0-1 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against Middle Tennessee State 31-23. Jack Turner was the starting QB and he completed 14/23 passes for 162 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception before getting replaced by Hank Bachmeier who completed 16/24 passes for 178 yards and 1 TD. Tyre Shelton led the team in rushing yards with 39. Smoke Harris led the receivers with 129 receiving yards on 11 receptions. Zach Zimos led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 8 assisted tackles while Deshon Hall led the defense in sacks with 1.5. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that game.
New Mexico State vs Louisiana Tech Prediction
The current betting odds have New Mexico State listed as a 3 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. New Mexico State didn't have a great start to their season but they are 5-3 now and have looked a lot better in their games lately. They have been doing well since their conference play started as they are 3-1 in the Conference USA and they have the momentum behind them now with their string of wins lately. LA Tech is only 3-5 this season and they have struggled a lot in their games as they have been switching between starting QBs all year, still trying to find an answer at the position on offense. They have also struggled more in their conference games with their 2-2 record and they haven't been that great in their home games either as they are 2-2 in those. Diego Pavia has been playing a lot better in their games now and New Mexico State clearly has a lot more consistency at the QB position this season than LA Tech does. The best way to place a bet here is on New Mexico State to cover the spread in this game.
New Mexico State Louisiana Tech Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Tuesday, October 24, 2023 (7:00 pm ET start time) is NM State 28 LA Tech 24.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
New Mexico State Aggies: 20-12 ATS in all games. 10-3 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56. 14-5 ATS after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers. 6-1 OVER off a double digit road win. 12-4 OVER after playing their last game on the road. 5-0 OVER after 4 or more consecutive wins against the spread.
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs: 5-10 ATS as a favorite. 6-14 ATS against conference opponents. 7-12 ATS off 1 or more straight overs. 20-10 OVER in all games. 12-2 OVER in home games. 17-4 OVER off 2 straight losses against conference rivals.
Key Injuries
New Mexico State Aggies: None.
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs: N. Jones (TE) Ques Tues - Undisclosed. T. Shelton (RB) Ques Tues - Undisclosed. B. Randle (LB) Out indefinitely - Suspension. M. Crosby (RB) Out indefinitely - Leg. K. Willis Jr. (RB) Out indefinitely - Ankle.
Notable Quotes
“He’s playing at a good level right now and playing with some confidence. You have to let him be himself, but he still has to be coached.” - Jerry Kill on Diego Pavia ahead of their win against UTEP in their game last week.
"Until we decide to focus and concentrate when we don't false start, it is going to make it hard to score. They were heavy up front. We knew it was going to be hard to run the football. We were not focused in those situations. Those were not the end-all-be-all plays, but it was not winning football. We did not play well enough. When you are knocking on the door for a touchdown and you throw an interception or settle for a field goal. We were not good enough in the goal line area." - Sonny Cumbie after his team’s loss against MTSU in their last game.
Starting Lineups
New Mexico State Aggies
WR Bellamy, Chris
WR David, Kordell
WR Brady, Jonathan
TE Whitford, Thomaz
QB Pavia, Diego
RB Jones, Jamoni
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
WR Edwards, Tru
WR Allen, Cyrus
WR Harris, Smoke
TE Jones, Nate
QB Bachmeier, Hank
RB Thornton, Charvis
Statistical Leaders
New Mexico State Aggies
Passing: D. Pavia (1801)
Rushing: D. Pavia (527)
Receiving: J. Brady (355)
Touchdowns: S. Thomas (5)
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
Passing: J. Turner (1011)
Rushing: T. Shelton (475)
Receiving: S. Harris (614)
Touchdowns: T. Shelton (5)
Coaches:
New Mexico State Aggies: Jerry Kill (2nd season)
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs: Sonny Cumbie (2nd season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
