New Mexico State Aggies vs Liberty Flames Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 12/01/2023

Game Time: 7:00 pm ET, Friday, December 1, 2023

Venue:  Williams Stadium, Lynchburg, VA

Where to Watch:  CBS Sports

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  NMSU +10.5, Liberty -10.5; Over/Under:  54 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  NMSU +10.5, Liberty -10.5; Over/Under:  53.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  NMSU +10.5, Liberty -10.5; Over/Under:  53.5 points

New Mexico State Aggies:  10-3 (7-1) (2nd place, C-USA)

Liberty Flames:  12-0 (8-0) (1st place, C-USA)

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New Mexico State Aggies:  won their last game at home against the Jacksonville State Gamecocks 20-17.

Liberty Flames:  won their last game on the road against the UTEP Miners 42-28.

New Mexico State is entering this game with a 10-3 record overall and they have a 7-1 record in their conference games too. They are 5-1 in their home games, 5-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against Jacksonville State 20-17. Diego Pavia was the starting QB and he completed 23/34 passes for 269 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions. Diego Pavia led the team in rushing yards with 68. Trent Hudson led the receivers with 70 receiving yards on 5 receptions and 1 TD. Keyshaun Elliott led the defense in that game with 8 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle while Gabe Peterson and Izaiah Reed each led the defense in sacks with 1. Dylan Early and Myles Rowser each came away with 1 interception for them in that game.

 

 

 

Liberty is entering this game with a 12-0 record overall and they have a 8-0 record in their conference games too. They are 7-0 in their home games, 5-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against UTEP 42-28. Kaidon Salter was the starting QB and he completed 4/11 passes for 22 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. Quinton Cooley led the team in rushing yards with 83 and 3 TDs. CJ Daniels led the receivers with 12 receiving yards on 2 receptions and 1 TD. Tyren Dupree led the defense in that game with 4 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle while Jay Hardy, Jaylon Jimmerson, and Eliyt Nairne each led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that game.

The current betting odds have New Mexico State listed as a 10.5 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This game will be the Conference USA Championship between New Mexico State and Liberty with Liberty getting the home advantage for this game. Liberty put together a really good season this year with their 12-0 record overall and their 8-0 conference record. They also looked a lot better in their home games this season with their 7-0 home record. New Mexico State has also looked really good in their games this season though with their 10-3 record overall. They played an extra game this season having played in week 0 and most of their struggles came at the beginning of the year as they have been rolling in their games lately, going 7-1 in conference play too. They have also looked good in their road games with their 5-2 road record. Liberty did beat NM State at home 33-17 earlier this season but that was also in NM State's 3rd game of the season when they weren't at their best. New Mexico State has been playing a lot better since then and they are going to bring their best effort here in the Conference Championship to at least keep this close and make it a game if they can't pull off the upset win. The best way to place a bet here is on New Mexico State to cover the spread in this game. 

New Mexico State Liberty Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Friday, December 1, 2023 (7:00 pm ET start time) is Liberty 27 NM State 24.

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New Mexico State Aggies: 2-10 ATS off an extremely close win by 3 points or less over a conference rival. 12-28 ATS after a game where they committed 4 or more turnovers. 8-2 UNDER after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread. 6-1 UNDER in road games. 16-9 UNDER as an underdog.

Liberty Flames: 8-4 ATS in all games. 11-3 ATS off 2 or more consecutive overs. 9-0 ATS after 2 straight games where 70 total points or more were scored. 11-5 UNDER off 1 or more straight overs. 13-3 UNDER after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers. 

New Mexico State Aggies:  None.

Liberty Flames:  J. Jenkins (TE) out for season - Eligibility. V. Jones Jr. (WR) out for season - Knee. R. Smith (WR) out for season - Knee.

"It took a while for our team to trust in one another but once they did and once they believed in us, we have been playing well. Ethan Albertson made a tough kick into the wind and he's been great for us during his career. Our offensive coaches said let's go win after Jacksonville State tied it and our kids executed. Jacksonville State is a good team and my hat is off to their coach Rich Rodriguez." - Jerry Kill after his team’s win against JSU in their last game.

“Making history like that is just something you didn’t start out to do. As coaches, you’re, ‘All right, what’s next. I’m thinking about next week.’ We’ll look back on it and just how special it was, especially being new.” - Jamey Chadwell after his team’s win against UTEP in their last game. 

WR Bellamy, Chris  

WR David, Kordell 

WR Brady, Jonathan 

TE Whitford, Thomaz 

QB Pavia, Diego 

RB Jones, Jamoni 

WR Daniels, CJ  

WR Frith, Noah 

WR Smoot, Elijah  

TE Henderson, Austin 

QB Salter, Kaidon 

RB Bedgood, Aaron  

RB Cooley, Quinton

Passing: D. Pavia (2727)

Rushing: D. Pavia (808)

Receiving: J. Brady (518)

Touchdowns: T. Hudson (8)

Passing: K. Salter (2431)

Rushing: Q. Cooley (1251)

Receiving: C. Daniels (831)

Touchdowns: Q. Cooley (13)

Coaches:

New Mexico State Aggies: Jerry Kill (2nd season)

Liberty Flames: Jamey Chadwell (1st season)