by Amedeus Mastrangelo
Monday, Nov 15, 2021
Game Time: 12:00 pm ET, Saturday, November 20, 2021
Venue: Kroger Field, Lexington, KY
Where to Watch: SEC Network
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: NMST +36, Kentucky -36; Over/Under: 59.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: NMST +36, Kentucky -36; Over/Under: 59.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: NMST +35.5, Kentucky -35.5; Over/Under: 60.5 points
Season Record
New Mexico State Aggies: 1-9 (6th place, FBS Independents)
Kentucky Wildcats: 7-3 (2nd place, SEC East)
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New Mexico State Aggies vs Kentucky Wildcats Preview and Analysis
Recent Form
New Mexico State Aggies: lost on the road on Nov. 13 against the Alabama Crimson Tide 59-3.
Kentucky Wildcats: won on the road on Nov. 13 against the Vanderbilt Commodores 34-17.
New Mexico State Aggies Analysis
New Mexico State is coming into this game with a 1-9 record overall and they are 0-6 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They only have 1 win all season and they have lost 6 straight games since then, coming into this one off of another loss in their last game. Jonah Johnson did not play well in that game as he completed 19/30 passes for 129 yards. He also led the team in rushing with 5 yards on 14 carries, they did nothing at all with their running game in that one. Cole Harrity led the receivers with 30 yards on 3 receptions while Terrell Warner led the team in receptions with 4 for 29 yards. Chris Ojoh led the defense in that game with 9 solo tackles and 4 assisted ones. Ojoh and Lezeric Bailey recorded the only sacks in that game with 1 each while no one on the defense was able to come away with an interception for them in that one. They have scored 211 points in their 10 games this season averaging 21.1 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 402 points against them allowing 40.2 PPG. Their offense is averaging 354.5 YPG while their defense is allowing 475.7 YPG.
Kentucky Wildcats Analysis
Kentucky is coming into this game with a 7-3 record overall and they are 5-1 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They have lost 3 of their last 4 games but they are coming into this one off of a win in their last game which snapped a 3 game losing streak that they were on. Will Levis played alright in that game but still struggled at times as he completed 14/22 passes for 177 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception. Chris Rodriguez had a nice day on the ground as he led the team in rushing with 114 yards and 1 touchdown on 16 carries while JuTahn McClain had 69 yards on 10 carries. Wan'Dale Robinson led the receivers with 75 yards and 1 touchdown on 6 receptions while Izayah Cummings caught the other touchdown pass. Yusuf Corker led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 2 assisted ones. Joshua Paschal led the defense in sacks in that game with 2 while Jalen Geiger came away with the only interception for them in that one. They have scored 292 points in their 10 games this season averaging 29.2 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 228 points against them allowing 22.8 PPG. Their offense is averaging 395.5 YPG while their defense is allowing 341.2 YPG.
New Mexico State vs Kentucky Prediction
New Mexico State is coming into this game as a 36 point underdog with the current betting odds according to Draftkings Sportsbook. New Mexico State has been bad all season but recently they have been playing much better in their games and keeping them closer than the spreads suggest. Kentucky has scored 36 or more points in 3 games this season and they allowed their opponent to score over 20 points against them in 2 of those games. Their largest margin of victory all season was by 35 points against ULM in week 1. New Mexico State will keep this game closer than 36 points, they might not keep it within reach of actually winning, but they are not going to get blown out by that much against a team like Kentucky. The best bet to place in this game is New Mexico State to cover the spread here.
New Mexico State Kentucky Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, November 20, 2021 (12:00 pm ET start time) is Kentucky 35 NM State 21.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
New Mexico State Aggies: 101-90 O/U in all games. 43-30 O/U when the total is between 56.5 and 63. 87-76 O/U as an underdog. 52-44 O/U as a road underdog. 58-47 O/U in road games. 53-37 O/U after playing a non-conference game.
Kentucky Wildcats: 163-180 ATS in all games. 0-4 ATS as a favorite of 31 or more points. 21-35 ATS when the total is between 56.5 and 63. 91-96 ATS in home games. 105-128 ATS after playing a conference game.
Key Injuries
New Mexico State Aggies: D. Gicinto (WR) out for season - Wrist injury.
Kentucky Wildcats: J. Wright (LB) day-to-day - Ankle injury. D. Crowdus (WR) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed injury. K. Upshaw (TE) out for season - Undisclosed injury.
Notable Quotes
"Offensively we really played hard. We were just really overmatched up front. But as far as the attitude and effort that our players had out there on both sides of the ball, it was really what you're looking for." - Doug Martin on his team’s loss to Alabama in their last game.
"We played more complimentary football in the first half than we have in some time. We did what we had to do to win. You know this was big for us coming on the road and getting another SEC East win." - Mark Stoops on his team’s win against Vandy in their last game.
Starting Lineups
New Mexico State Aggies
WR Wyatt, Jared
WR Garcia-Castaneda, Isaiah
WR Harrity, Cole
TE Whitford, Thomaz
QB Johnson, Jonah
RB Price, Juwaun
Kentucky Wildcats
WR Ali, Josh
WR Robinson, Wan'Dale
TE Bates, Brenden
QB Levis, Will
RB Rodriguez Jr., Chris
Statistical Leaders
New Mexico State Aggies
Passing: J. Johnson (2101)
Rushing: J. Price (463)
Receiving: J. Wyatt (486)
Touchdowns: J. Price (6)
Kentucky Wildcats
Passing: W. Levis (2025)
Rushing: C. Rodriguez Jr. (1031)
Receiving: W. Robinson (886)
Touchdowns: C. Rodriguez Jr. (7)
Coaches:
New Mexico State Aggies: Doug Martin (9th season)
Kentucky Wildcats: Mark Stoops (9th season)
Amedeus Mastrangelo
About the Author:
Amedeus Mastrangelo has been heavily wagering on all sports for years and plays just about everything, including sides, totals, favorites, underdogs, against the spread, alternative spreads, first half, second half, player props, and futures. The bottom line is, if Mastrangelo can see an edge in any way shape or form, then he's going to take advantage.
