by Rod Pearson
Tuesday, Dec 12, 2023
Game Time: 5:45 pm ET, Saturday, December 16, 2023
Venue: University Stadium, Albuquerque, NM
Where to Watch: ESPN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: NMSU -3.5, Fresno +3.5; Over/Under: 51 points
Bet365: Point Spread: NMSU -3.5, Fresno +3.5; Over/Under: 51 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: NMSU -3.5, Fresno +3.5; Over/Under: 51.5 points
Season Record
New Mexico State Aggies: 10-4 (7-2) (2nd place, C-USA)
Fresno State Bulldogs: 8-4 (4-4) (6th place, MWC)
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Recent Form
New Mexico State Aggies: lost their last game on the road against the Liberty Flames 49-35.
Fresno State Bulldogs: lost their last game on the road against the San Diego State Aztecs 33-18.
New Mexico State Aggies vs Fresno State Bulldogs Preview and Analysis
New Mexico State is entering this game with a 10-4 record overall and they have a 7-1 record in their conference games too. They are 5-1 in their home games, 5-3 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at a neutral site for this game. They lost their last game against Liberty 49-35. Diego Pavia was the starting QB and he completed 11/16 passes for 188 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions before leaving injured and getting replaced by Blaze Berlowitz who completed 10/19 passes for 134 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT. Diego Pavia led the team in rushing yards with 45 and 1 TD. Trent Hudson led the receivers with 112 receiving yards on 7 catches and 2 TDs. Jeremiah Dervil led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 6 assisted tackles while no one on the defense recorded a sack in that one. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that game.
Fresno State is entering this game with an 8-4 record overall and they have a 4-4 record in their conference games too. They are 5-1 in their home games, 3-3 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at a neutral site for this game. They lost their last game against SDSU 33-18. Mikey Keene was the starting QB and he completed 21/36 passes for 190 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Malik Sherrod led the team in rushing yards with 138 and 2 TDs. Erik Brooks led the receivers with 53 receiving yards on 5 receptions. Malachi Langley led the defense in that game with 7 solo tackles and 6 assisted tackles while Levelle Bailey led the defense in sacks with 1.5. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that game.
New Mexico State vs Fresno State Prediction
The current betting odds have New Mexico State listed as a 3.5 point favorite in this game for the New Mexico Bowl according to Draftkings Sportsbook. New Mexico State has looked really good in their games all season with their 10-4 record overall. They were really good in their conference too with a 7-1 conference record and ended up in the Conference USA Championship just to lose to Liberty. They still had a great season though and they are going to be feeling like there is some unfinished business here after the way they lost in the Conference Championship. Meanwhile, Fresno State has also looked good in their games this season with their 8-4 record overall. A lot of their struggles came in their conference games as they were 4-4 in the MWC, but they also haven't looked good in their games lately as they were falling apart down the stretch. Fresno State isn't going to be as motivated here as they had much higher hopes of going to the MWC Championship and now their coach is going to miss this game too due to health concerns. Fresno State is in a bad situation here with no head coach and the way they ended the season while NMSU will be looking to end things on a positive note here. The best way to place a bet here is on New Mexico State to cover the spread in this game.
New Mexico State Fresno State Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, December 16, 2023 (5:45 pm ET start time) is NM State 35 Fresno State 17.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
New Mexico State Aggies: 25-13 ATS in all games. 11-2 ATS as a favorite. 8-3 ATS against Mountain West conference opponents. 9-5 UNDER in all games. 9-2 UNDER after a game where they forced no turnovers. 10-5 UNDER after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game.
Fresno State Bulldogs: 4-8 ATS in all games. 1-8 ATS after a game where they forced no turnovers. 1-6 ATS off 1 or more straight overs. 9-3 UNDER when the total is between 49.5 and 56. 8-3 UNDER after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers.
Key Injuries
New Mexico State Aggies: D. Pavia (QB) Prob Sat - Shoulder. B. Berlowitz (QB) Ques Sat - Undisclosed. E. Stowers (QB) Prob Sat - Undisclosed.
Fresno State Bulldogs: E. Edwards (WR) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. D. Moore (RB) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. T. Carr (TE) Out indefinitely - Lower Body.
Notable Quotes
“He’s the toughest kid I’ve ever been around, and you can quote me on that.” - Jerry Kill on Diego Pavia after his team’s loss against Liberty in the Conference USA Championship.
"The entire Fresno State community sends its thoughts and prayers to Coach Tedford and wish him a speedy recovery." - Athletic Director Terry Tumey on Jeff Tedford stepping away from the team due to health concerns.
Starting Lineups
New Mexico State Aggies
WR Bellamy, Chris
WR David, Kordell
WR Brady, Jonathan
TE Whitford, Thomaz
QB Pavia, Diego
RB Jones, Jamoni
Fresno State Bulldogs
WR Dalena, Mac
WR Gill, Jaelen
WR Brooks, Erik
TE Watson, Tre
QB Keene, Mikey
RB Sherrod, Malik
Statistical Leaders
New Mexico State Aggies
Passing: D. Pavia (2915)
Rushing: D. Pavia (853)
Receiving: J. Brady (613)
Touchdowns: T. Hudson (10)
Fresno State Bulldogs
Passing: M. Keene (2596)
Rushing: M. Sherrod (878)
Receiving: E. Brooks (694)
Touchdowns: M. Sherrod (10)
Coaches:
New Mexico State Aggies: Jerry Kill (2nd season)
Fresno State Bulldogs: Jeff Tedford (5th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
