by Chuck Sommers
Thursday, Mar 17, 2022
NCAA Tournament 1st Round
Time: 6:50 p.m. ET
Time: 6:50 p.m. ET
Venue: KeyBank Center, Buffalo, NY
Where to watch: TNT
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: UConn -6.5
BetMGM: UConn -6.5
Caesars: UConn -6.5
Season record
New Mexico State: 26-6
UConn: 23-9
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New Mexico State - UConn preview and analysis
New Mexico State analysis
Death, taxes, the New Mexico State Aggies as the kings of the Western Athletic Conference once again. For the first time in three years, the Aggies are back in March Madness after winning the WAC title after winning 66-52 over Abilene Christian last week in Las Vegas.
It was an overall easy type of matchup for the Aggies, who needed just four players in double figures and to shoot a combined 37 percent from the floor to get the win. Clayton Henry finished with a team-high 15 points and eight rebounds on 6 of 11 shooting, while SirJabari Rice had just 11 points but took 11 shots to get there.
Along with Rice, he and Teddy Allen are a pretty big backcourt that's able to get a lot of good looks when needed. New Mexico State has clearly shown it's not the best shooting team of them all but at the very least they dominated the WAC with efficient guard play and strong defense. The Aggies held ACU to just 32.7 percent from the floor and went only 6 of 22 from 3-point range.
With the exception of the pandemic year last season, New Mexico State has long been a constant visitor to March Madness. They made the tourney in seven out of eight seasons from 2012-19 and won at least 25 games in five of those campaigns. After a 26-6 season this time around and another conference championship, the Aggies are one of those teams that will hang around for a while, but they always seem to flame out toward the end because they're just not that great of a team against top-tier competition.
And no disrespect to them, but facing a team like UConn doesn't bode well for them.
UConn analysis
It seems right when the UConn Huskies are in the NCAA Tournament. The birds are singing, the flowers are in bloom, and the time-space continuum just seems to rotate at the right axis when UConn is among the competitive nature in college basketball.
But normally when UConn has these kinds of seasons, it results in a conference championship or something of the sort. Turns out, the Big East decided to be as ridiculously good as possible this year with six teams making the tournament. That includes against the likes of Providence and Villanova with the latter being who UConn lost in the Big East semis, 63-60, to last week.
Tyrese Martin had 19 points on 7 of 17 shooting, but the biggest issue for UConn was the big-time players did not step up when they needed to. R.J. Cole, their leading scorer, finished with just 11 points on 3 of 9 shooting but made up for it with eight assists and just three turnovers. One sign of being a really good player is to know your limitations and adapt. That's exactly what Cole did.
UConn shot 38 percent from the floor, another indication in which that group is a streaky shooting team. Where they can dominate is on the offensive glass, hence the 15 offensive boards against Villanova, and winning the second-chance point battle. If New Mexico State is going to have any chance in this game, they have to find a way to keep Adamo Sanogo in check. The big man had 15 points and 13 rebounds, including seven offensive boards, in the loss to Villanova.
This is a group that went 3-4 against top-25 teams this season, but the one thing about UConn was that it is a consistent group and tends to play well to the competition. Should they get past NMSU, the consensus is they will be a tough out for the second-round opponent. And we all know about teams of UConn past that have been dominant in the tournament and have gone on to do big things. Kemba Walker and Shabazz Napier smile right now.
Prediction
For all the hope of New Mexico State playing some solid basketball, I can't overlook UConn. This is a group that may not be as good as those teams years ago, but they will be a tough out and can dominate enough on the glass to make things interesting as a No. 5 seed. I have them going as far as the Sweet 16 because of that defensive structure, and it'll be on display against New Mexico State, which would love a spot in the Sweet 16 at some point. UConn by 15
Betting trends
New Mexico State is 51-30 ATS in March dating back to 1997.
New Mexico State is 4-0 ATS as an underdog this season.
UConn is 35-28 ATS as a favorite the past three seasons.
UConn is 77-70 ATS in March since 1997.
Projected starting lineup
New Mexico State:
PG: Jabari Rice
SG: Clayton Henry
SF: Teddy Allen
PF: Johnny McCants
C: William McNair Jr.
UConn:
PG: R.J. Cole
SG: Andre Jackson
SF: Tyrese Martin
PF: Adama Sanogo
C: Isaiah Whaley
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
