New Mexico State Aggies vs Arkansas Razorbacks Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 03/19/2022

by Amedeus Mastrangelo

Game Time: 8:40 pm ET, Saturday, March 19, 2022
Venue:  KeyBank Center, Buffalo, NY
Where to Watch:  TNT

 

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  NM State +6.5, Arkansas -6.5; Over/Under:  139.5 points
Bet365:  Point Spread:  NM State +6.5, Arkansas -6.5; Over/Under:  139.5 points
BetMGM:  Point Spread:  NM State +6.5, Arkansas -6.5; Over/Under:  139.5 points
 

Season Record

New Mexico State Aggies:  27-6 (1st place, WAC)
Arkansas Razorbacks:  26-8 (4th place, SEC)
 
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New Mexico State Aggies vs Arkansas Razorbacks Preview and Analysis

 
Recent Form
New Mexico State Aggies:  4-1 last 5
Arkansas Razorbacks:  3-2 last 5
 
 
 

New Mexico State Aggies Analysis

NM State is coming into this game with a 27-6 record overall and they are 5-1 in their neutral site games this season where they will be in this game. Their last loss was against the SFA Lumberjacks but they have gone on a 4 game winning streak since then with wins coming against the Utah Valley Wolverines, the Grand Canyon Antelopes, the Abilene Christian Wildcats, and the UConn Huskies in their last game. Teddy Allen led the team in points in that game with 37 while Jabari Rice was next on the team with 9 points. Rice led the team in assists in that game with 4 while Allen led the team in rebounds with 7. They were 46% from the field, 64.7% from 3-point range, and 100% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 73.2 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 65 PPG against them. NM State has an ATS record of 18-12 this season and their O/U record is 17-13.
 
 

Arkansas Razorbacks Analysis

Arkansas is coming into this game with a 26-8 record overall and they are 4-2 in their neutral site games this season where they will be in this game. They have won 2 of their last 3 games and are coming into this one off of a win in their last game. Their last loss was against the Texas A&M Aggies while their 2 wins in that span came against the LSU Tigers and the Vermont Catamounts in their last game. Stanley Umude led the team in points in that game with 21 while JD Notae was next on the team with 17 points. Notae led the team in assists in that game with 4 while Jaylin Williams led the team in rebounds with 10. They were 42.9% from the field, 33.3% from 3-point range, and 80% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 76.9 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 68.6 PPG against them. Arkansas has an ATS record of 20-14 this season and their O/U record is 21-13.
 

 

New Mexico State vs Arkansas Prediction

NM State is coming into this game as a 6.5 point underdog with the current betting odds according to Draftkings Sportsbook. They have been playing very well recently with 4 straight wins and they are coming off of a win in their last game where they upset the number 5 seed UConn with a 7 point win as a number 12 seed. They will play this game with a lot of confidence and they are going up against an Arkansas side that did not play very well in their last game. Arkansas escaped round 1 with a 4 point win against the number 13 seed Vermont and they did not even cover the 6 point spread in that game. Now they are playing a team that already has an upset over a team 1 seed lower than them and they will likely struggle to pull away in this game like they did in their last. They even fizzled out in their 2nd game of their conference tourney and they finished their season with some close games that they did not play well in. Arkansas is still the better team and they have had a great season, they will come away with the win here but this will be a close game that NM State covers the spread in. 
 
New Mexico State Arkansas Prediction:  Our NCAAB Pick for Saturday, March 19, 2022 (8:40 pm ET start time) is Arkansas 77 NM State 74.
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NCAAB Betting Trends

 
New Mexico State Aggies: 11-4 ATS in all neutral court games. 10-5 OVER in all neutral court games. 10-2 OVER in all tournament games.
Arkansas Razorbacks: 20-39 ATS after 3 or more consecutive overs. 21-13 OVER in all games. 18-11 OVER as a favorite.
 

Key Injuries

 
New Mexico State Aggies:  D. Tillman (F) Ques Sat - Leg injury.
Arkansas Razorbacks:  None.
 

Notable Quotes

 
"I stopped and watched them. It gave me chills to think about what that would feel like for us. Was really, really hoping we'd get to feel that as well." - Chris Jans on watching the 12 seed Richmond take down Iowa in the game before they took down UConn as a 12 seed.
 
 
"I just believe the last 10 minutes of the game are so important that I want to have my best players available. I told him at halftime, `My man, I'm going to you. We're running all the sets for you that we hadn't run the first maybe 31 minutes of the game.‘" - Eric Musselman after his team’s win against Vermont in round 1.
 
 

Starting Lineups

 
New Mexico State Aggies
T. Allen 
J. McCants 
W. McNair 
S. Rice 
D. Tillman
 
Arkansas Razorbacks
J. Notae 
Au’Diese Toney 
S. Umude 
T. Wade 
J. Williams
 

Statistical Leaders

 
New Mexico State Aggies
PPG: T. Allen (19.5)
APG: J. Rice (3.3)
Reb/G: T. Allen (6.9)
 
Arkansas Razorbacks
PPG: J. Notae (18.9)
APG: J. Notae (3.6)
Reb/G: J. Williams (9.6)
 
Coaches:
New Mexico State Aggies: Chris Jans (5th season)
Arkansas Razorbacks: Eric Musselman (3rd season)


Amedeus Mastrangelo

About the Author:

Amedeus Mastrangelo has been heavily wagering on all sports for years and plays just about everything, including sides, totals, favorites, underdogs, against the spread, alternative spreads, first half, second half, player props, and futures. The bottom line is, if Mastrangelo can see an edge in any way shape or form, then he's going to take advantage.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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