New Mexico State Aggies vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Prediction & Game Preview -- 11/13/2021

by Chuck Sommers

Game time: Noon ET
Venue: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL
Where to watch: SEC Network

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks


DraftKings: Alabama -51.5
BetMGM: Alabama -51.5
Caesars: Alabama -51.5

Season record
New Mexico State: 1-8
No. 2 Alabama: 8-1 (5-1 SEC)

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New Mexico State - Alabama preview and analysis


Last week
New Mexico State: lost 35-13 vs. Utah State
Alabama: won 20-14 vs. LSU

The Alabama Crimson Tide survived a scare last week. Don’t expect that to be the case this week.

Alabama will try to win its fourth consecutive game when it hosts the New Mexico State Aggies in Tuscaloosa.

College football tends to play a fickle game sometimes. Alabama is trying for its ninth win of the season, and it’s likely coming with no issues unless the team just sleeps in or doesn’t happen to show up due to low gas on the team bus.

Alabama is entering this contest as seven-touchdown favorites on Saturday. Alabama’s offense, which averages 43 points per game, might be in for a field day against New Mexico State’s defense that averages 38.1 per contest. That’s just the points.

New Mexico State’s defense gives up 460 yards per game and 285 through the air, which should provide another solid outing for quarterback Bryce Young. He threw for 302 yards and two touchdowns last week in the 20-14 win over the LSU Tigers.

The quarterback wasn’t the issue last week. Alabama couldn’t run the ball to save its life; LSU held Alabama to a grand total of six rushing yards with Brian Robinson accounting for 18 of them on 13 carries.

LSU nearly pulled off the upset, but I suppose that’s why Young is a Heisman contender. He’s thrown for 300 yards in all but three games this season and has thrown for that in each of the last four to go with 11 touchdowns and one interception.

This matchup almost seems unfair for New Mexico State other than the money it’s getting to play this game. The Aggies are coming off a 22-point loss at home to the Utah State Aggies. Logan Bonner provided a little taste for what’s to come for NMSU’s defense this week; he threw for 359 yards and four touchdowns, as Utah State scored 28 unanswered points in the second half to get the win and the cover.

Safe to say that New Mexico State bettors will be happy for just a cover this week. 

Prediction


Alabama is three games away from a spot in the SEC title game with Georgia. A lot can happen within that time. One thing that won’t happen is Alabama losing this game. Another thing that we can be sure happens is Alabama covering. This has all the makings of a 56- 60-point game when it’s all over, and the poor Aggies will not survive to tell the tale. Alabama by 60

Betting trends


New Mexico State is 6-3 ATS this season.

New Mexico State is 5-0 ATS on the road.

New Mexico State is 3-0 this season ATS following rushing for less than 100 yards in the previous game.

Alabama is 21-14 ATS in its last 35 games.

The over is 11-3 for Alabama after allowing 14 points or less last game.

Statistical leaders


New Mexico State:
Passing: Jonah Johnson -- 1,975 yards, 8 TD, 7 INT
Rushing: Juwuan Price -- 487 yards, 6 TD
Receiving: Jared Wyatt -- 480 yards, 2 TD
Defense: D.J. McCullough -- 3 INT

Alabama:
Passing: Bryce Young -- 2,755 yards, 28 TD, 3 INT
Rushing: Brian Robinson Jr. -- 724 yards, 12 TD
Receiving: Jameson Williams -- 870 yards, 7 TD
Defense: Will Anderson Jr. -- 10 sacks

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Chuck Sommers

About the Author:

Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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