New Mexico Lobos vs UTEP Miners Prediction, Odds and Preview - 09/25/2021

by James Q

New Mexico Lobos vs UTEP Miners Prediction, Odds and Preview - 09/25/2021

Game Time: 6:00 pm ET, Saturday, September 25th, 2021 
Venue: Sun Bowl, El Paso, Texas
Where to Watch: ESPN +

Opening NCAAF Odds at USA Sportsbooks

BetMGM:  Spread: New Mexico -1  O/U:  54 points
Caesars: Spread:  New Mexico -1  O/U:  54 points
DraftKings:  Spread: New Mexico -1.5  O/U: 54 points


Season Record

New Mexico:  2-1 (mountain West)
UTEP:  2-1 (C-USA)

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Lobos vs Miners Preview and Analysis

Recent Form:
The UTEP Miners opened the season by stomping the New Mexico State Aggies 30-3. Game two brought win number two against the Bethune Cookman Wildcats 38-28.  Then they hit a wall called Boise State and got blown out 54-13.  The result is 2-1.

New Mexico had a similar trajectory.  Game 1 brought Houston Baptist and a 27-17 win.  Game 2 another win, this time also New Mexico State 34-25.  Game three was a death march into College Station Texas to face #7 Texas A&M.  Everyone knew New Mexico would lose and they did, 34-0.

Offensive Analysis

New Mexico’s offense is scoring 20.3 points a game on 329.7 yards per game.  The Lobos are led by quarterback Terry Wilson who has passed for 6 TDs and 1 interception this season.  RB Bobby Cole and RB Aaron Dumas are a thunder and lightning style attack, Bobby has 166 yards on 38 carries, Aaron has 164 yards on 35 carries. Wide receiver Mannie Logan-Greene has only 116 yards because so far they have really spread it around among about six WRs and  a TE.

UTEP’s offense is averaging 27 points per game on 328 yards per game. QB Gavin Hardison leads the charge with 5 TDs, but has also tossed 4 interceptions.  RB Ronald Awatt provides balance to the high volume passing game that stars WR Jacob Cowing with support from WR Justin Garret and WR Tyrin Smith.

Defensive Analysis
New Mexico’s defense is giving up 25.3 ppg and allows 320.3 yards per game.
UTEP allows 28.3 ppg and 328 ypg.

Those are really similar numbers but thankfully they have something glaring in common.  They both played New Mexico State.  They both beat New Mexico State.  In both games neither team was missing a key piece on defense and New Mexico State used the same key pieces on offense.   The difference is UTEP ALLOWED only 3 points from New Mexico State,  New Mexico ALLOWED 25 points form New Mexico State.

New Mexico Lobos vs UTEP Miners Tech Prediction

Our prediction for Saturday, September 25th is….  UTEP  34  -  New Mexico 25

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NCAAF Betting Trends

These two squads combine for 53 points a game, the O/U is 54.
New Mexico has not yet covered a spread this season.
UTEP only has 1 ATS win this season.
UTEP averages 100 more yards a game than New Mexico gives up.


Players to Watch

New Mexico:  Tavian Combs  S.   Tavian leads the Lobos in tackles and interceptions and if they are going to beat UTEP they have to hold strong against the 100 extra yards UTEP averages.

UTEP:  The secondary.  New Mexico excels at involving everyone in the passing game.  This means CB Walter Neil, CB Torey Richardson will have to take it on themselves to play mistake and penalty free coverage.  

Starting Lineups

New Mexico: QB Terry Wilson, RB Bobby Cole, TE Kyle Jarvis, WR Andrew Erikson, WR Keyonta Lanier, WR Mannie Logan-Greene, LT Cade Briggs, LG Austin Cooks, C Kyle Stapley, RG Isaak Gutierrez, RT Ben Davis, 

UTEP:  QB Gavin Hardison, RB Deion Hankins, TE Trent Thompson, WR Justin Garrett, WR Jacob Cowing WR Nick Ast, LT Darta Lee, LG Bobby DeHaro, C Andrew Meyer, RG Elijah Klein, RT Jeremiah Byers

Statistical Leaders

Passing: Gavin Hardison 655 yards
Rushing: Ronald Awatt  244 yards
Receivers: Jacob Cowing  293 yards
Tackles:  Breon Hayward  16 
Interceptions:  Dennis Barnes  1

New Mexico:
Passing:  Terry Wilson 592 yards
Rushing:  Bobby Cole  166 yards
Receiving:  Mannie Logan-Greene 116 yards
Tackles:  Tavian Combs 28
Interceptions:  Tavian Combs 2


UTEP:  Dana Dimel
New Mexico: Danny Gonzales

Weather Forecast 

Sunny.  Hot.  It’s El Paso.  It’s literally always the hottest part of Texas.


James Q

About the Author:

James Q. has been involved with sports and gambling his entire life. A former division 1 scholarship basketball player, James understands sports (and especially basketball) inside-and-out. Following his basketball playing days, James parlayed his gambling skills into a semi-pro poker career. James resides in Los Angeles, and especially loves the Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Rams, and Los Angeles Dodgers. And when he isn't betting on sports (and writing about it), James can be found performing stand-up comedy on the Sunset Strip.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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