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by Chuck Sommers
Tuesday, Sep 27, 2022
Time: 11 p.m. ET
Venue: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
Where to watch: CBS Sports Network
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: UNLV -16
FanDuel: UNLV -16.5
BetMGM: UNLV -15.5
Caesars: UNLV -16
Season record
New Mexico: 2-2 (0-1 Mountain West)
UNLV: 3-1 (1-0 Mountain West)
What a big week and some fun shake up in the top 25, as we enter Week 5 of the college football campaign. And what a week it was for our own Wayne Root with a 7-1-0 stint to continue what has been a strong start for our champion handicappers through the early stages of this college football season. But now things are going to get interesting with conference play underway and some big-time matchups in the coming weeks. You're going to want to follow our top-notch handicappers if you want to get on this action. Make sure you visit our Best Bets page to find out more.
New Mexico - UNLV preview, analysis and prediction
Last week
New Mexico: lost 38-0 at LSU
UNLV: won 34-24 at Utah State
The New Mexico Lobos are never good. Really, just when you think that the Lobos can finally turn a corner and actually play some decent football, they pull up to LSU and get smashed. OK, maybe that’s a little bit harsh as it pertains to a Mountain West team going against an SEC foe, but I digress. The Lobos’ defense gave up 633 total yards of offense to the LSU fightin’ Brian Kelly accents in a 38-0 loss this past Saturday in Baton Rouge.
Not that we should expect any sort of ridiculous offensive output from this group, but to give you a general idea of what was going on: New Mexico quarterback Miles Kendrick was 5 of 7 for 47 yards; the New Mexico running game totaled just 41 yards on 26 carries with 33 of them coming from Nathaniel Jones on eight carries; four different receivers caught a pass, the leading receiver being Jaden Hullaby (one reception for 38 yards). The most receptions went to Luke Wysong with two … but he had zero yards.
The New Mexico Lobos are never good. Really, just when you think that the Lobos can finally turn a corner and actually play some decent football, they pull up to LSU and get smashed. OK, maybe that’s a little bit harsh as it pertains to a Mountain West team going against an SEC foe, but I digress. The Lobos’ defense gave up 633 total yards of offense to the LSU fightin’ Brian Kelly accents in a 38-0 loss this past Saturday in Baton Rouge.
Not that we should expect any sort of ridiculous offensive output from this group, but to give you a general idea of what was going on: New Mexico quarterback Miles Kendrick was 5 of 7 for 47 yards; the New Mexico running game totaled just 41 yards on 26 carries with 33 of them coming from Nathaniel Jones on eight carries; four different receivers caught a pass, the leading receiver being Jaden Hullaby (one reception for 38 yards). The most receptions went to Luke Wysong with two … but he had zero yards.
"It's difficult to shut out anybody in football," Kelly said. "College football is set up for success on offense. Had to juggle the lineup defensively and the guys really rallied. It was pretty clear that they were going to have a difficult time moving the football on us. Our game plan was excellent."
We’re not really sure what New Mexico’s plan was other than to show up and get paid for a game, but alas, that’s what necessarily happened. The Lobos offense has not had a consistent run so far and going against a tough UNLV defense (I can’t believe those words just came out of my keyboard) will not make things any easier.
I can’t believe I’m saying this, and if you’re reading this and have followed this program for a long time, you can’t believe it either. The UNLV Rebels – yes, UNLV, historically one of the worst programs in college football over the last decade – are three wins away from bowl eligibility. I’m not sure what kind of alternate universe we’ve landed in, nor can I definitively say that we have not been snapped by Thanos and half the world’s population is gone which has led UNLV to three wins in four games for the first time since 2008.
But when you have the mix of a rising star quarterback in Doug Brumfield, the talented running game of Aidan Robbins, and then the defense that has made numerous plays out of nowhere, you’re asking for some respect. And so far, UNLV has certainly earned that respect. The Rebels went into Utah State (albeit a struggling program) and won 34-24, the first win against the Aggies since they joined the Mountain West. Brumfield threw for 217 yards and a touchdown, Robbins went for 81 and a score, and most importantly, the UNLV defense forced six (6!!!) turnovers in the win. Things like this don’t make sense for a team that won two combined games the last two years.
But when you have the mix of a rising star quarterback in Doug Brumfield, the talented running game of Aidan Robbins, and then the defense that has made numerous plays out of nowhere, you’re asking for some respect. And so far, UNLV has certainly earned that respect. The Rebels went into Utah State (albeit a struggling program) and won 34-24, the first win against the Aggies since they joined the Mountain West. Brumfield threw for 217 yards and a touchdown, Robbins went for 81 and a score, and most importantly, the UNLV defense forced six (6!!!) turnovers in the win. Things like this don’t make sense for a team that won two combined games the last two years.
“We were pretty sloppy in some instances that we haven’t been all season,” UNLV coach Marcus Arroyo said. “That’s going to happen when you play on the road against a good, quality opponent. You’re going to have some times when you’ve got to really focus. I think our program has come a long ways to be able to win a game like that and to play imperfect. That’s exciting.”
Just hypothetically speaking: If UNLV were to win the next three and clinch bowl eligibility, it would go into a matchup against Notre Dame at 6-1 and would have a better record than the Fighting Irish. Just saying.
Prediction
UNLV is 16-point favorites and I can see why. Through two games at home, the Rebels have hit 50 points and have looked unstoppable on offense at times. Not sure if they’re going to get a bigger crowd on Friday because the program might not be there yet, but there’s something to behold about this football team trying to win. It’s a lot of fun. UNLV by 28
Betting trends
New Mexico is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 road games.
New Mexico is 6-10 ATS in its last 16 as an underdog.
New Mexico is 2-10 ATS off an under in its last 12.
UNLV is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a favorite.
UNLV is 6-1 ATS in its last seven after allowing 100 rushing yards or less the prior game.
Statistical leaders
New Mexico:
Passing: Miles Kendrick -- 426 yards, 3 TD, 3 INT
Rushing: Nathaniel Jones -- 128 yards, 1 TD
Receiving: Geordon Porter -- 146 yards, 2 TD
UNLV:
Passing: Doug Brumfield -- 990 yards, 8 TD, 1 INT
Rushing: Aidan Robbins -- 427 yards, 7 TD
Receiving: Ricky White -- 317 yards, 3 TD
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
