New Mexico Lobos vs. Fresno State Bulldogs Preview & Game Prediction -- 11/13/2021

by Chuck Sommers

Game time: 7 p.m. ET
Venue: Bulldog Stadium, Fresno, CA
Where to watch: TBD

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks


DraftKings: Fresno State -21
BetMGM: Fresno State -21.5
Caesars: Fresno State -21

Season record
New Mexico: 3-6 (1-4 Mountain West)
No. 23 Fresno State: 7-3 (4-2 Mountain West)

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New Mexico - Fresno State preview and analysis


Last week
New Mexico: lost 31-17 vs. UNLV
Fresno State: lost 40-14 vs. Boise State

Only in the Mountain West Conference could one team pull off the biggest win in the league to that point, only to get curb stomped the next week.

Everyone say hello to the Fresno State Bulldogs and their blown opportunity at a conference title.

The Bulldogs will try to bounce back on Saturday when they host the New Mexico Lobos, as the margin for error has been reduced to zero for the home team.

Look: Fresno State was not getting to the College Football Playoff. It was going to be a middle-tier bowl game and that would conclude their season. No harm done. But you can’t go on the road to defeat the San Diego State Aztecs one week, and then follow that with a 26-point home loss to the inconsistent Boise State Broncos.

That’s exactly what happened, and now Fresno State needs to run the table and get some help if the Bulldogs want their gifted conference championship appearance back in their possession.

Fresno State’s pass-first offense hasn’t ran into many problems. Case in point, that strong San Diego State defense still gave up 30 points. Fresno quarterback Jake Haener threw for 279 yards and two touchdowns but threw three uncharacteristic interceptions and was sacked five times in the loss.

Boise State quarterback Hank Bachmeier was decent, throwing for 283 yards and a touchdown. The real winner was Boise State kicker Jonah Dalmas making all four field goal attempts, and the Boise State running game combining for 187 yards and three touchdowns, led by George Holani’s 117. Andrew Van Buren, not related to the former president I’m sure, ran for two touchdowns on three carries while totaling one yard.

To be fair, Fresno State’s chances should’ve ended after the loss to Hawaii at home, but this just drove the nail in the coffin even deeper. San Diego State has to lose to either Nevada-Reno, UNLV or Boise State. Maybe the Broncos can do the Bulldogs one more solid?

That would require Fresno State doing its part in the final three games, and that starts with a matchup at home against a New Mexico team that might be on par with the California Golden Bears as the most disappointing in the country last week.

New Mexico is coming off a 14-point loss to the winless UNLV Rebels, who had their 14-game losing streak end and got the first win for Marcus Arroyo as head coach. Why the Rebels are even dominating the Lobos in this manner is completely shocking.

The Lobos have not been the same since leading quarterback Terry Wilson went down to injury, and it showed last week. CJ Montes stepped in to complete 7 of 13 passes for 28 yards. That’s it; 28 yards for an offense that had only 296 total yards. Against UNLV.

How do you manage that? There’s no way at all that can happen.

Prediction


Congrats to Fresno State for bouncing back. This should be an easy win and cover because there’s no way Fresno State should be struggling against this team. A Fresno State loss should move them to Independent status. Fresno State by 27

Betting trends


New Mexico is 1-8 ATS this season.

New Mexico is 3-18 straight up as an underdog over the past three seasons.

Fresno State is 4-4 ATS as a favorite this season.

Fresno State is 11-7 straight up as a favorite in the past three years.

Statistical leaders


New Mexico:
Passing: Terry Wilson -- 1,058 yards, 7 TD, 4 INT
Rushing: Aaron Dumas -- 479 yards, 1 TD
Receiving: Luke Wyson -- 224 yards
Defense: Joey Noble -- 4.5 sacks

Fresno State:
Passing: Jake Haener -- 3,167 yards, 25 TD, 9 INT
Rushing: Ronnie Rivers -- 652 yards, 4 TD
Receiving: Jalen Cropper -- 710 yards, 10 TD
Defense: Kevin Atkins -- 6.5 sacks

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Chuck Sommers

About the Author:

Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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