New England Patriots vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: Prediction, Preview, Picks & Odds - 9/18/2022

by Chuck Sommers

Game time: 1 p.m. ET
Venue: Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA
Where to watch: CBS

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks


DraftKings: Patriots -2
FanDuel: Patriots -2
BetMGM: Patriots -2
Caesars: Patriots -2

Season record
Patriots: 0-1
Steelers: 1-0

Week 2 in the NFL season is already off to a hot start with Kansas City showing why it's Kansas City. What will Sunday bring in what should be a week filled with questions that need to be answered upon the like? Given the fact that Al McMordie is 56-33 in his last 89 is a testament to how much you should be paying attention to our champion handicappers and following along with what they do this year. Want to get on the action? Make sure you follow Al and all of our other handicappers during this NFL season.

Patriots - Steelers preview, analysis and prediction


Last week
Patriots: lost 20-7 at Dolphins
Steelers: won 23-20 (OT) at Bengals

The post-Ben Roethlisberger era couldn’t have gone any better for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Not only did they defeat the Cincinnati Bengals in an epic Week 1 matchup, but they showed the defense is probably just as dominant as it could be.

And then T.J. Watt suffered a pectoral injury and is going to be out for about a month, so maybe everything isn’t all rosy in the world of the Steelers. But they can go 2-0 this week when they host the New England Patriots at the stadium formerly known as Heinz Field. Whatever in the world Acrisure is, I refuse to call it that.

But the Steelers still have enough talent on defense despite Watt’s absence to make life tough on Mac Jones and co. in Week 2 and that’s why I think the Steelers can get it done on Sunday. And yes, I’m over here trying to justify a team with Mitch Trubisky at quarterback starting 2-0.

But in all honesty, Trubisky wasn’t that bad last week in the win in Cincy. He passed for 194 yards and a touchdown, didn’t turn the ball over, and even made some nice throws that you’d never think came from the outcasted No. 2 overall pick from a few years ago.

What this game ultimately signifies is the changing of the guard at quarterback between the teams. There’s no Roethlisberger or Tom Brady leading the charge. That does seem a bit odd and it might be the first time you turn on a TV this week and feel really puzzled about what’s going on.

“I can’t remember the last time we’ve gone three years without playing the Steelers,” New England coach Bill Belichick said. “It seems like it’s been a team we’ve usually played every year. Obviously, it’s been a little while. Some definite changes since the last time we saw them.”

The last time Trubisky played New England, it was one of his best games of his career. He threw for 333 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for 81 yards and a touchdown. New England ultimately won that game 38-31, but that was the first real flash of how Trubisky could be good.

He’s not facing a slouch at the other end. Jones and the Patriots are coming off a tough 20-7 loss at Miami in which Jones threw for 213 yards and a touchdown in the loss. New England’s offensive line just didn’t have enough in the tank to slow down the Dolphins’ defense, which seems like a weird thing to say.

The Patriots have won five of the last six meetings and the last time they put up 33 points in a win. Again, that was a long time ago, about three years.

“We got into their territory,” Belichick said. “We got in there six, seven times and it was seven points. So we’ve got to do a better job of finishing.”

Prediction


The Steelers haven’t been a good team when following an upset win the last three years, going 1-6 against the spread. But as a home underdog, a rare occurrence even dating back the last 30 years, the Steelers have won their last three. It’s uncharacteristic to think the Patriots will start a year 0-2, but even without Watt, I like Pittsburgh’s defense and don’t trust Jones to have a superstar-like game to get a win. Steelers by 7

Betting trends


Patriots are 41-27 ATS against AFC North teams since 1992.

Patriots are 78-46 ATS since 1992 after allowing 75 yards or fewer last game.

Patriots are 220-166 ATS since 1992 against AFC opponents.

Steelers are 94-62 ATS since 1992 as an underdog.

Steelers are 0-4 ATS in their last four off an upset win as an underdog.

Statistical leaders


Patriots:
Passing: Mac Jones -- 213 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
Rushing: Damien Harris -- 48 yards
Receiving: Jakobi Meyers -- 55 yards
Defense: Three tied -- 1 sack

Steelers:
Passing: Mitch Trubisky -- 194 yards, 1 TD
Rushing: Chase Claypool -- 36 yards
Receiving: Diontae Johnson -- 55 yards
Defense: Alex Highsmith -- 3 sacks

Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert football picks today. And if you enjoyed this New England Patriots - Pittsburgh Steelers prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily NFL projections and previews.

Chuck Sommers

About the Author:

Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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