Game Time:  4:15 PM ET, Sunday, January 8th, 2022

Venue: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida

Where to Watch:  CBS

 

FanDuel: point spread: Patriots -6.5 ; O/U 40

BetMGM: Patriots -6.5; O/U 39.5

Caesars: Patriots -6.5; O/U 40 points

 

Patriots: 10-6, 2nd place AFC East

Dolphins: 8-8, 3rd place AFC East

An AFC East matchup of opponents that have everything to play for.

The New England Patriots are tied in record with the Buffalo Bills… but the Bills have the tie-breaker.  To win the AFC East outright and secure a bye and early home field advantage the Patriots must win this game and hope the Bills lose their final regular season game.  It has been a roller coaster two seasons for the Patriots.  The greatest quarterback to ever play football, Tom Brady, left them in 2020 for warmer weather and a more open offense with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers… he promptly won the Super Bowl.  The Patriots finished 2020 with a losing record at 7-9 and the whispers started “It was Tom all along”.... “ That Bill Belichick may not be the greatest coach of all time, he just had Tom”... Yet Bill was hard at work rebuilding without a great quarterback.  He tried QB Cam Newton under center to middling results and he drafted an Alabama quarterback.  As the season got underway this year it was apparent that Cam Newton not only wasn’t the guy, but also wasn’t going to get vaccinated.  In true Bill Belichick fashion unsentimental and inexpressively he moved on to rookie QB Mac Jones. In just one off-season after Tom left… the defense was magically rebuilt and ready to go.. The rookie had enough help on offense to “game manage” his way into some wins.  Now they are rolling.  They are currently 8-2 over their last ten games… the only two losses coming against the Buffalo Bills and the Indianapolis Colts.  Last game they coasted to an easy win against a bad team and finished 50-10 over the Jacksonville Jaguars.  If the defense holds up the Patriots will be a very difficult out for any team they face in the playoffs.

The Miami Dolphins have everything riding on their first ever regular season game 17.  At 8-8 a win mean they had an unthinkable winning season (unthinkable at the start)... and a loss means they had a losing season… just like everyone thought when they graded the Dolphins out at the beginning of the year. Miami lost last week against the Tennessee Titans 34-3, but before that they went on a fantastic 7-game winning streak.  That streak made the Dolphins 7-3 over their last ten games with just losses to the Atlanta Falcons, the Buffalo Bills, and the Tennessee Titans.  It lifted them out of the cellar they were trapped in.  At the start of the season all the prognosticators knew what was wrong with the Dolphins… QB Tua Tagovailoa stinks.  The arm that was great in college wasn’t big enough for the NFL, Tua is a bit small, Tua’s injuries in his rookie year (that were actually held over from college) renders him unathletic, Tua holds the ball too long and makes mistakes with reading coverage… etc, etc.  The team investigating a possible trade to get public pariah Desean Watson in trade became public and everyone from press to horrible fans were on board.  Then Tua did what quarterbacks do after they have taken rookie lumps and gotten some experience.. He got a little bit better.  That slight improvement shows on the field and though not great numbers he currently sits at 2,544 passing yards in a season where he again missed 4 games to injury. While the Dolphins playoff hopes are officially over, Tua desperately needs this win to have a winning season on his resume.  The Dolphins have a few questions to answer… like will RB Myles Gaskin play?... and come out of the 3 games slump he has been in?  Should Tua force the action with big throws downfield aimed at WR Jaylen Waddle?  

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RECENT FORM

 

The Patriots are 10-6 on the season and 10-6 ATS.  They have logged 8 Overs and 8 Unders.  They are a wonderful 6-1 in road games.

 

The Dolphins are 8-8 on the season, but 8-7-1 ATS.  They have notched 6 Overs and 10 Unders.  They are 5-3 in home games.

 

The Patriots are 8th in points with 27.4 per game, 16th in yards with 351.8 per game.  It breaks down to 14th in passing (not bad for a rookie QB, game manager) and 8th in rushing.

The Dolphins are 24th in points with 19.3 per game, 25th in yards with 307.6 per game.  It breaks down to 15th in passing and a lousy 31st in rushing yards.  Before they drop Tua, someone in management needs to wonder how the running game is Tua’s fault… and how much better he could have been if the team had more balance to keep the opponents from keying on Tua’s every step in the pocket?

The Patriots defense is where the bread is buttered.  They rank 3rd in the NFL while only allowing 311.6 yards per game… and 1st in defending points while only allowing 16.9.  You have to get up pretty early in the morning to catch Bill Belichick in a defensive mistake.

The Dolphins are 15th in defense while allowing 334.9 and 16th in defending points while allowing 21.8 points per game.

Our prediction for Sunday, January 9th is… Patriots 28 - Dolphins 13

With the postseason out of reach and big changes coming to the roster, the Dolphins will fold under the Patriots precision.  Guys will be playing for stats to literally show other teams when they are free agents… guys will be already making vacation plans in their head… guys will be checked out.  What we know of Bill Belichick is he never lets any of his guys check out for any reason.  Take the Patriots and bet the Over.

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The Patriots are 5-2 ATS in road games this season.

The Dolphins are 4-4 ATS in home games this season.

The Patriots are 8-3 ATS when playing on six days of rest.

The Dolphins are 4-5 ATS as an underdog this season.

 

Patriots: QB Jarrett Stidham (Back) Quest ** WR Nelson Agholor (concussion) Quest ** WR N’Keal Harry (hip) Quest ** RB Damien Harris (hamstring) Quest

Dolphins: RB Malcolm Brown (quad) Out ** LB Elandon Roberts (Undisclosed) Quest ** DB Sheldrick Redwine (covid) Out ** CB Noah Igbinoghene (covid) Quest **

Patriots: QB Mac Jones, RB Damien Harris, WR Jakobi Meyers, WR Kristian Wilkerson, WR Kendrick Bourne, TE Hunter Henry, LT Isaiah Wynn, LG Ted Karras, C David Andrew, RG Shaq Mason, RT Trent Brown

Dolphins: QB Tua Tagovailoa, RB Duke Johnson, WR DeVante Parker, WR Jaylen Waddle, WR Isaiah Ford, TE Durham Smythe, LT Liam Eichenberg, LG Austin Jackson, C Michael Deiter, RG Robert Hunt, RT Jesse Davis

Patriots

Touchdowns: Damien Harris 14

Rushing Yards: Damien Harris 892

Passing Yards: Mac Jones 3,540
Receiving Yards: Jakobi Meyers 796

Sacks: Matt Judon 12.5

Interceptions: J.C. Jackson 8 

Dolphins

Touchdowns: Tua Tagovailoa 3

Rushing Yards: Myles Gaskin 613

Passing Yards: Tua Tagovailoa 2,544

Receiving Yards: Jaylen Waddle 988

Sacks: Emmanuel Ogbah 9.0

Interceptions: Xavien Howard 4

 

Partly Cloudy.  79*.  Winds at 17 mph.