by Chuck Sommers
Friday, Sep 09, 2022
Game time: 1 p.m. ET
Venue: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL
Where to watch: CBS
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Dolphins -3.5
FanDuel: Dolphins -3.5
BetMGM: Dolphins -3.5
Caesars: Dolphins -3.5
2021 Season record
Patriots: 10-7 (lost AFC Wild Card, 47-17, to Bills)
Dolphins: 9-8
A new NFL season is here and what a start we're off to with Buffalo going to the champs' house and knocking them in the mouth. What can we expect when the full slate of games gets rolling on Sunday? Only one way to find out: Get to bigal.com and check out what our champion handicappers are thinking heading into these matchups, and also get the right amount in your pocket for your winnings.
Patriots - Dolphins preview, analysis and prediction
It’s still wild that Tyreek Hill is a member of the Miami Dolphins. Is he the final piece of the puzzle to get Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins to the top of the AFC East? Or at least challenging the Buffalo Bills to the top?
One way to do that is to vanquish the demons of the past, that being the New England Patriots. The Dolphins host Bill Belichick’s group in Week 1 on Sunday in what might be the beginning of the end when it comes to the passing of the torch.
Not as long as Belichick is around and developing talent across the board. That starts with Mac Jones and the Alabama quarterback going into Year 2 of his NFL run. The Patriots are coming off a playoff run that ended in a loss in the Wild Card round, something that didn’t seem possible following Tom Brady’s departure.
But it’s going to be a hot one in Miami to start the year with temperatures hitting the low 90s with humidity always hitting its Florida apex. It’s not like Foxboro is balmy and cold in its own right at the moment, but there’s definitely some heat. This is some crazy heat, however.
“I think there are a combination of factors, but in the end it all looks like it’s set up fairly well here,” Belichick said. “So, make the travel on Tuesday instead of on Saturday. We’ll already be down there. We’ll be able to just focus on the Dolphins.”
It’s almost similar to “We’re on to Kansas City,” but with less heat. Nevertheless, this is an important building block year for the Patriots. Jones led all rookies in completion percentage, passing yards and touchdown passes. He now has former Dolphins receiver Devante Parker on his side, and Jakobi Meyers returns after an 83-catch season.
But when it comes to Jones, the biggest question has to be if he can actually lead this team to some sort of consistency going into his second season. New England has not been in a position to put its quarterbacks with enough weapons to succeed. Brady was so good for so long because he knew the systems as well as anyone and he was able to find the open receivers before the play even began.
Can he do that in his second season? That remains to be seen. But one quarterback that will definitely have the microscope on him this entire season, pending health, is Tagovailoa. The chains have been broken off of the Miami quarterback and he is now being tasked with letting it fly.
That's why Miami has gone all the way in with the acquisition of Hill, one of the best receivers in the game for a long time and now no longer in the shadow of Patrick Mahomes.
“I think it’s a credit to the practices that we’ve had with the Eagles and how hard our guys have been working,” Tagovailoa said. “It’s really good that people can finally see the hard work that we’ve been putting in together.”
Tagovailoa is the guy, and if he’s healthy, can be a really good quarterback. No more short routes and no more underneath stuff. This is the big time for Tua, and he’s got a hefty weapon to help him.
Prediction
The Patriots haven’t been underdogs as much recently, just 6-7 ATS getting points the past three seasons. The Dolphins, meanwhile, are just 8-6 in their last 14 as a favorite. No matter the circumstance, I like the Dolphins in front of the home crowd to get the win. Dolphins win by 13
Betting trends
Patriots are 7-10 ATS on the road the past three years.
Patriots are 13-12 ATS against conference opponents the past three years.
Dolphins are 12-5 ATS at home the past three years.
Dolphins are 20-13 ATS in their last 33 overall.
2021 statistical leaders
Patriots
Passing: Mac Jones -- 3,801 yards, 22 TD, 13 INT
Rushing: Damien Harris -- 929 yards, 15 TD
Receiving: Jakobi Meyers -- 866 yards, 2 TD
Defense: Matt Judon -- 12.5 sacks
Dolphins
Passing: Tua Tagovailoa -- 2,653 yards, 16 TD, 10 INT
Rushing: Myles Gaskin -- 612 yards, 3 TD
Receiving: Jaylen Waddle -- 1,015 yards, 6 TD
Defense: Emmanuel Ogbah -- 9 sacks
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
