New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins Prediction, Preview and Odds - 10/29/2023

Game Time: 1:00 pm ET, Sunday, October 29, 2023

Venue:  Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL

Where to Watch:  CBS

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Patriots +9.5, Dolphins -9.5; Over/Under:  47 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Patriots +9.5, Dolphins -9.5; Over/Under:  47 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Patriots +9.5, Dolphins -9.5; Over/Under:  47 points

New England Patriots:  2-5 (4th place, AFC East)

Miami Dolphins:  5-2 (1st place, AFC East)

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New England Patriots:  won their last game at home against the Buffalo Bills 29-25.

Miami Dolphins:  lost their last game on the road against the Philadelphia Eagles 31-17.

The Patriots are entering this game with a 2-5 record overall and they have a 2-1 record in their divisional games too. They are 1-3 in their home games, 1-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against the Buffalo Bills 29-25. Mac Jones was the starting QB and he completed 25/30 passes for 272 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Rhamondre Stevenson led the team in rushing yards with 34. Kendrick Bourne led the receivers with 63 receiving yards on 6 receptions and 1 TD. Kyle Dugger led the defense in that game with 7 solo tackles and 0 assisted tackles while Christian Barmore led the defense in sacks with 1. Jabrill Peppers came away with the only interception for them in that game.

 

 

 

The Dolphins are entering this game with a 5-2 record overall and they have a 1-1 record in their divisional games too. They are 3-0 in their home games, 2-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against the Philadelphia Eagles 31-17. Tua Tagovailoa was the starting QB and he completed 23/32 passes for 216 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. Raheem Mostert led the team in rushing yards with 45. Tyreek Hill led the receivers with 88 receiving yards on 11 receptions and 1 TD. Jerome Baker led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 5 assisted tackles while Bradley Chubb led the defense in sacks with 2. Jerome Baker came away with the only interception for them in that game.

The current betting odds have the Dolphins listed as a 9.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Dolphins have been having a great season with their 5-2 record overall but they are coming off a loss in their last game. They lost to the Eagles on Sunday night but they will be looking to bounce back in this game and still have a perfect home record this season. The Patriots have been terrible this season with their 2-5 record overall. They did beat the Bills in their last game but that game was also at home and they already have a home loss to these Dolphins from a game earlier this season. Mac Jones has been struggling to put up points in this offense all year and they are not going to be able to compete with this high flying Dolphins offense, especially being on the road with the Dolphins off a loss in prime time. The best way to place a bet here is on the Dolphins to cover the spread in this game.

Patriots Dolphins Prediction:  Our NFL Pick for Sunday, October 29, 2023 (1:00 pm ET start time) is Dolphins 38 Patriots 14.

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New England Patriots: 4-8 ATS as a road underdog. 0-6 ATS revenging a same season loss against an opponent. 14-5 OVER as a road underdog of 7.5 to 10 points. 28-18 OVER after a home game where both teams scored 24 or more points. 

Miami Dolphins: 8-4 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. 13-7 ATS in home games. 8-3 ATS in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5. 14-7 OVER off 1 or more consecutive unders. 

New England Patriots:  J. Smith-Schuster (WR) day-to-day - Concussion. K. White (DE) day-to-day - Concussion. J. Uche (LB) day-to-day - Foot. A. Jennings (LB) day-to-day - Hand. R. Reiff (OL) Out indefinitely - Knee. K. Boutte (WR) Out indefinitely - Hamstring. T. Wheatley Jr. (OT) Out indefinitely - Knee. M. Judon (LB) Early Dec - Bicep. T. Flowers (DE) Out indefinitely - Foot. C. Gonzalez (CB) I-R - Shoulder. D. Ekuale (DL) Out indefinitely - Bicep. M. Jones (DB) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. I. Bolden (CB) I-R - Neck. R. McMillan (LB) I-R - Achilles.

Miami Dolphins:  J. Waddle (WR) day-to-day - Back. X. Howard (CB) day-to-day - Groin. C. Brooks (RB) I-R - Ankle. J. Ramsey (CB) Out indefinitely - Knee. C. Williams (OL) day-to-day - Groin. D. Achane (RB) Prob Week 11 - Knee. T. Armstead (OT) Out indefinitely - Knee. E. Ezukanma (WR) Out indefinitely - Neck. R. Cracraft (WR) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. N. Needham (CB) Out indefinitely - Achilles. K. Crossen (DB) I-R - Undisclosed. Z. Vandenburgh (LB) I-R - Undisclosed.

“I mean, it's great. I’m really more focused on our team and this year. We’ll worry about that later.” - Bill Belichick after his team’s win against the Bills in their last game. 

“If you're going to lose games, you want it to be against a really good team and you want it to hurt.” - Mike McDaniel after his team’s loss against the Eagles in their last game. 

WR PARKER, DEVANTE 

WR Bourne, Kendrick 

WR Smith-Schuster, JuJu 

TE Henry, Hunter 

QB Jones, Mac 

RB Stevenson, Rhamondre

WR Waddle, Jaylen 

WR Hill, Tyreek 

WR Berrios, Braxton 

TE Smythe, Durham 

QB Tagovailoa, Tua 

RB MOSTERT, RAHEEM 

FB Ingold, Alec

Passing: M. Jones (1480)

Rushing: R. Stevenson (268)

Receiving: K. Bourne (370)

Touchdowns: K. Bourne (3)

Passing: T. Tagovailoa (2092)

Rushing: R. Mostert (474)

Receiving: T. Hill (902)

Touchdowns: R. Mostert (11)

Coaches:

New England Patriots: Bill Belichick (24th season)

Miami Dolphins: Mike McDaniel (2nd season)