by Rod Pearson
Tuesday, Sep 22, 2026
Game Time: 1:00 pm ET, Sunday, September 27, 2026
Venue: EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL
Where to Watch: CBS
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Patriots +3, Jaguars -3; Over/Under: 45.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Patriots +3, Jaguars -3; Over/Under: 45.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Patriots +3, Jaguars -3; Over/Under: 45.5 points
Season Record
New England Patriots: 1-1 (2nd place, AFC East)
Jacksonville Jaguars: 1-1 (1st place, AFC South)
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Recent Form
New England Patriots: won their last game at home against the Pittsburgh Steelers 20-3.
Jacksonville Jaguars: lost their last game on the road against the Denver Broncos 20-13.
New England Patriots vs Jacksonville Jaguars Preview and Analysis
The Patriots are entering this game with a 1-1 record overall and they have a 0-0 record in their divisional games too. They are 1-0 in their home games, 0-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against the Pittsburgh Steelers 20-3. Drake Maye was the starting QB and he completed 14/22 passes for 208 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 1 interception. TreVeyon Henderson led the team in rushing yards with 76 and 1 TD. Romeo Doubs led the receivers with 96 receiving yards on 3 receptions. Christian Elliss led the defense in that game with 12 solo tackles while Christian Elliss, Elijah Ponder, Joshua Farmer, and Christian Barmore each led the defense in sacks with 1. Gabe Jacas came away with the only interception for them in that one.
The Jaguars are entering this game with a 1-1 record overall and they have a 0-0 record in their divisional games too. They are 1-0 in their home games, 0-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against the Denver Broncos 20-13. Trevor Lawrence was the starting QB and he completed 17/29 passes for 189 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Bhayshul Tuten led the team in rushing yards with 65 and 1 TD. Parker Washington led the receivers with 98 receiving yards on 7 receptions. Ventrell Miller and Foyesade Oluokun each led the defense in that game with 7 solo tackles while no one on the defense recorded a sack for them. Jourdan Lewis came away with the only interception for them in that one.
Patriots vs Jaguars Prediction
The current betting odds have the Patriots listed as a 3 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Patriots haven't looked great in their games this season with their 1-1 record overall so far. They haven't been a great road team either with their 0-1 road record this year. Meanwhile, the Jaguars haven't looked great in their games this season with their 1-1 record overall so far. They have looked a lot better on their home field though with their 1-0 home record this season. The Jaguars looked great in week 1 with a 34-10 win over the Browns, but they got shut down last week. The Broncos defense bounced back at home with a big 2nd half and beat the Jaguars 20-13 with the Jags offense stalling in the 2nd half. Now they are coming back home where they looked a lot better, but they are coming back from altitude which could affect them here. The Patriots are still the AFC Champions from last season and after a terrible game in week 1 where they couldn't take advantage of a backup QB for the Seahawks, they bounced back big at home last week. They are coming off a 20-3 win over the Steelers in their last one and even though their offense had a lot of trouble, the defense has looked great in both games. They had one of the best defenses in the NFL last season too and the Jaguars just struggled against an elite defense last week. Drake Maye has looked bad in both games so far, but he is a lot better than the way he has played and will bounce back in this game. The Jaguars are coming off a great season, but their offense was still really up and down at times and it really showed last week when they disappeared in the 2nd half with a 10 point lead. The best way to place a bet here is on the Patriots to cover the spread in this game.
Patriots Jaguars Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Sunday, September 27, 2026 (1:00 pm ET start time) is Patriots 23 Jaguars 20.
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NFL Betting Trends
New England Patriots: 8-4 ATS as a road underdog. 6-3 ATS in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points. 5-1 OVER against AFC South division opponents. 12-6 OVER after playing a game at home.
Jacksonville Jaguars: 51-69 ATS at home after 1 or more consecutive losses. 14-29 1H ATS in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5. 4-1 OVER against AFC East division opponents.
Key Injuries
New England Patriots: C. Davis III (CB) Out - Neck. B. Brown (C) Questionable - Knee. D. Jones (LB) Questionable - Foot. R. Spillane (LB) Injured - Knee. T. Henderson (RB) Injured - Ankle. D. Crownover (OT) Out - Knee.
Jacksonville Jaguars: C. Braswell (CB) Injured - Knee. L. Allen Jr. (RB) Injured - Hip. J. Meyers (WR) Injured - Thumb. F. Oluokun (LB) Injured - Wrist. B. Thomas Jr. (WR) Injured - Shoulder. C. Van Lanen (OG) Injured - Knee.
Notable Quotes
“That has to be the formula, we have to affect the quarterback each and every week." - Mike Vrabel after his team’s win against the Steelers in their last game.
“Definitely disappointing. I felt like we played the opposite way in the second half than we did in the first half.” - Trevor Lawrence after their loss against the Broncos in their last game.
Starting Lineups
New England Patriots
WR Doubs, Romeo
WR Hollins, Mack
WR Douglas, DeMario
TE Henry, Hunter
QB Maye, Drake
RB Henderson, TreVeyon
FB Gilliam, Reggie
Jacksonville Jaguars
WR Thomas Jr., Brian
WR Meyers, Jakobi
WR Washington, Parker
TE Strange, Brenton
QB Lawrence, Trevor
RB Tuten, Bhayshul
Statistical Leaders
New England Patriots
Passing: Drake Maye (386)
Rushing: Rhamondre Stevenson (94)
Receiving: Romeo Doubs (96)
Touchdowns: Eli Raridon (1)
Jacksonville Jaguars
Passing: Trevor Lawrence (434)
Rushing: Bhayshul Tuten (131)
Receiving: Parker Washington (181)
Touchdowns: Parker Washington (1)
Coaches:
New England Patriots: Mike Vrabel (2nd season)
Jacksonville Jaguars: Liam Coen (2nd season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
