by Amedeus Mastrangelo
Monday, Dec 13, 2021
Game Time: 8:20 pm ET, Saturday, December 18, 2021
Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
Where to Watch: NFL Network
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Patriots +1, Colts -1; Over/Under: 44 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Patriots +2, Colts -2; Over/Under: 44 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Patriots +1.5, Colts -1.5; Over/Under: 44 points
Season Record
New England Patriots: 9-4 (1st place, AFC East)
Indianapolis Colts: 7-6 (2nd place, AFC South)
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New England Patriots vs Indianapolis Colts Preview and Analysis
Recent Form
New England Patriots: won on the road on Dec. 6 against the Buffalo Bills 14-10.
Indianapolis Colts: won on the road on Dec. 5 against the Houston Texans 31-0.
New England Patriots Analysis
The Patriots are coming into this game with a 9-4 record overall and they are 6-0 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. Their last loss was against the Dallas Cowboys but they have gone on a 7 game winning streak since then with wins coming against the New York Jets, the Los Angeles Chargers, the Carolina Panthers, the Cleveland Browns, the Atlanta Falcons, the Tennessee Titans, and the Buffalo Bills in their last game. Quarterback Mac Jones completed 2/3 passes for 19 yards in that one. Damien Harris had a very nice day on the ground as he led the team in rushing with 111 yards and 1 touchdown on 10 carries while Rhamondre Stevenson had 78 yards on 24 carries. Jonnu Smith led the receivers with 12 yards on 1 reception in what was a very quiet day for the receiving corps. Davon Godchaux led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 4 assisted ones. Matthew Judon and Daniel Ekuale both recorded the only sacks in that game with 1 each while no one on the defense was able to come up with an interception in that one. They have scored 350 points in their 13 games this season averaging 26.9 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 200 points against them allowing 15.4 PPG. Their offense is averaging 346.5 YPG while their defense is allowing 310 YPG.
Indianapolis Colts Analysis
The Colts are coming into this game with a 7-6 record overall and they are 3-4 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They have won 4 of their last 5 games and are coming into this one off of a win in their last game. Their last loss was against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers while their 4 wins in that span came against the New York Jets, the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Buffalo Bills, and the Houston Texans in their last game. Carson Wentz completed 16/22 passes for 158 yards and 1 touchdown. Jonathan Taylor had a very nice day on the ground as he led the team in rushing with 143 yards and 2 touchdowns on 32 carries while Deon Jackson also ran in 1 TD in that one. Michael Pittman Jr. led the receivers with 77 yards on 6 receptions while Ashton Dulin caught the lone touchdown pass in that one. Khari Willis led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles. Al-Quadin Muhammad and Kemoko Turay both recorded the only sacks in that game with 2 each while Kenny Moore II came up with the only interception for them in that one. They have scored 371 points in their 13 games this season averaging 28.5 PPG and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 283 points against them allowing 21.8 PPG. Their offense is averaging 368.1 YPG while their defense is allowing 342.1 YPG.
Patriots vs Colts Prediction
The Colts are coming into this game as a 1 point favorite with the current betting odds according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Colts have been playing much better in recent games than they were playing at the start of the season and they have come a long way since then. The Colts have a great defense that is keeping teams from scoring a lot of points against them this season. They also have a great offense that ranks in the top 5 in the NFL for scoring and they have some great weapons at wideout and an even better one at running back. The Patriots have been playing very well recently but they simply do not have the weapons that the Colts have, the Patriots do have some great coaching but the Colts also possess that as well. The Colts are going to dominate the Patriots in this game and they are going to do it with their run game. The best bet to place in this game is on the Colts to cover the spread here and on them to win this game straight up on the money line as they will be snapping the Patriots win streak and giving them their first loss on the road this season.
Patriots Colts Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Saturday, December 18, 2021 (8:20 pm ET start time) is Colts 28 Patriots 17.
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NFL Betting Trends
New England Patriots: 94-54 ATS as an underdog. 5-1 ATS in road games. 219-161 ATS against conference opponents. 145-99 ATS in games played on turf. 42-22 ATS after covering the spread in 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games. 45-25 ATS after gaining 150 or less passing yards in last game. 17-7 ATS after allowing 14 points or less in 3 straight games. 204-146 ATS after the first month of the season.
Indianapolis Colts: 15-5 O/U in games where the line is +3 to -3. 27-19 O/U in all games. 11-4 O/U off a division game. 15-3 O/U off 1 or more consecutive unders. 5-1 O/U off a blowout win by 28 points or more over a division rival. 8-2 O/U off a road win. 17-7 O/U after 1 or more consecutive wins.
Key Injuries
New England Patriots: A. Phillips (DB) Ques Week 15 - Knee injury. D. Harris (RB) Ques Week 15 - Hamstring injury. J. Stidham (QB) Ques Week 15 - Back injury.
Indianapolis Colts: R. Kelly (C) Out indefinitely - Knee injury. T. Lewis (DT) I-R - Knee injury. J. Blackmon (S) I-R - Achilles injury.
Notable Quotes
"We knew it was going to be windy. You can't control it. There is no on and off switch. You just have to go out there and do your job, and for us to run the ball like we did was incredible." - Mac Jones on their win against the Bills in their last game.
"Before we even went out there, I said: ‘If we don't shut these guys out, we didn't do good enough.'" - Darius Leonard on their win against the Texans in their last game.
Starting Lineups
New England Patriots
WR Agholor, Nelson
WR Meyers, Jakobi
TE Smith, Jonnu
QB Jones, Mac
RB Harris, Damien
FB Johnson, Jakob
Indianapolis Colts
WR HILTON, TY
WR Pittman Jr., Michael
WR Pascal, Zach
TE DOYLE, JACK
TE Alie-Cox, Mo
QB Wentz, Carson
RB Taylor, Jonathan
Statistical Leaders
New England Patriots
Passing: M. Jones (2869)
Rushing: D. Harris (754)
Receiving: K. Bourne (623)
Touchdowns: D. Harris (9)
Indianapolis Colts
Passing: C. Wentz (2948)
Rushing: J. Taylor (1348)
Receiving: M. Pittman Jr. (882)
Touchdowns: J. Taylor (18)
Coaches:
New England Patriots: Bill Belichick (22nd season)
Indianapolis Colts: Frank Reich (4th season)
Amedeus Mastrangelo
About the Author:
Amedeus Mastrangelo has been heavily wagering on all sports for years and plays just about everything, including sides, totals, favorites, underdogs, against the spread, alternative spreads, first half, second half, player props, and futures. The bottom line is, if Mastrangelo can see an edge in any way shape or form, then he's going to take advantage.
