by Chuck Sommers
Thursday, Oct 07, 2021
Game time: 1 p.m. ET, Oct. 10, 2021
Venue: NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
Where to watch: CBS
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Patriots -8.5
BetMGM: Patriots -9.5
Caesars: Patriots -9
Season record
Patriots: 1-3 (T-2nd, AFC East)
Texans: 1-3 (T-2nd, AFC South)
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NE - HOU preview and analysis
Recent form
Patriots: lost 19-17 vs. Buccaneers in Week 4
Texans: lost 40-0 at Bills in Week 4
The New England Patriots were a 56-yard doinked Nick Folk field goal off the left upright, in the rain, from writing the greatest narrative in 21 years on Sunday Night Football.
Unless Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are playing for another three years and Bill Belichick doesn’t retire, the Patriots aren’t getting another opportunity to defeat the greatest quarterback of all time.
But I suppose the best consolation prize would be an easy win against the lowly Houston Texans, as will be the case on Sunday at NRG Stadium.
If there were any Patriots fans that felt the post-Brady era was on the sharp decline, they can rest easy for a bit. Mac Jones is the future and he, along with the future, is bright. Find me a network that can plug Jones’ 4.0 GPA at Alabama more than NBC.
The Patriots’ first-round pick completed a season-best 77.5 percent of his passes for 275 yards and his first two-touchdown game in the NFL. He went toe-to-toe with Brady, outplayed him for the most part, and almost led a game-winning drive. Unfortunately, Folk just couldn’t kick straight in a downpour for a two-point loss in Tom Brady’s return. That's a forgivable offense.
Jones leads all rookie quarterbacks with 1,012 yards, 112 completions and a 70 percent completion rate through four weeks. He’s found decent chemistry with Jakobi Meyers, who had eight catches for 70 yards last week. Nelson Agholor also had 55 yards through the air.
That alone is already a better offense than what the Texans have been able to put together. We have to take into consideration they’re without Tyrod Taylor and Deshaun Watson doesn’t want to play for them, but the Texans should’ve known they were eventually going to be without Tyrod Taylor and Deshaun Watson didn’t want to play for them.
The Texans looked like a team that faced the Buffalo Bills but played like a group of folks accepting of the whooping they received. Davis Mills threw 21 passes, completed 11 of them, for a grand total of 87 yards. Brandin Cooks had 47 of those yards. It’s a horrendous time to be the NFL team from the city of Houston.
This offense is not suitable to go against elite NFL defenses right now, and it won’t be until there’s another pass catcher with Cooks and a couple of prayers added in the chat. The drastic style in signal callers is evident.
Prediction
This won’t end well for Houston in this battle of rookie QBs. Why did the NFL add an extra game to the season? Even if Taylor comes back whenever, it will still be all bad. This matchup will not be suitable for children. Patriots by 17
Betting trends
The Patriots are 69-59 against the spread as a road favorite in their last 128 games.
New England is 197-144 ATS in the first game following the first month of the season.
The Texans are 2-14 ATS in games after playing their previous one on the road.
Players to watch
Patriots: Linebacker Matt Judon is looking for his fourth game in a row with a sack, and third in a row with at least two tackles for loss. He’s become a force for this young Patriots’ defense.
Texans: Defensive back Desmond King had a team-high nine tackles last week. Expect him to be on Meyers for most of this game.
Statistical leaders
Patriots:
Passing: Mac Jones -- 1,012 yards, 4 TD, 4 INT
Rushing: Damien Harris -- 172 yards, 1 TD
Receiving: Jakobi Meyers -- 246 yards
Defense: Matt Judon -- 4.5 sacks
Texans:
Passing: Davis Mills -- 357 yards, 2 TD, 5 INT
Rushing: Mark Ingram -- 171 yards, 1 TD
Receiving: Brandin Cooks -- 369 yards, 1 TD
Defense: Whitney Mercilus -- 3 sacks
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
