by Rod Pearson
Friday, Dec 22, 2023
Game Time: 8:15 pm ET, Sunday, December 24, 2023
Venue: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
Where to Watch: NFL Network
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Patriots +7, Broncos -7; Over/Under: 34 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Patriots +7, Broncos -7; Over/Under: 34.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Patriots +7, Broncos -7; Over/Under: 34.5 points
Season Record
New England Patriots: 3-11 (4th place, AFC East)
Denver Broncos: 7-7 (2nd place, AFC West)
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New England Patriots: lost their last game at home against the Kansas City Chiefs 27-17.
Denver Broncos: lost their last game on the road against the Detroit Lions 42-17.
New England Patriots vs Denver Broncos Preview and Analysis
The Patriots are entering this game with a 3-11 record overall and they have a 2-2 record in their divisional games too. They are 1-6 in their home games, 2-4 in their road games, and they are also 0-1 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against the Kansas City Chiefs 27-17. Bailey Zappe was the starting QB and he completed 23/31 passes for 180 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. Ezekiel Elliott led the team in rushing yards with 25. Hunter Henry led the receivers with 66 receiving yards on 7 receptions and 1 TD. Jabrill Peppers and Kyle Dugger each led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Christian Barmore, Mack Wilson Sr., and Deatrich Wise Jr. each led the defense in sacks with 1. Jahlani Tavai and Marte Mapu each came away with 1 interception for them in that game.
The Broncos are entering this game with a 7-7 record overall and they have a 2-2 record in their divisional games too. They are 4-3 in their home games, 3-4 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against the Detroit Lions 42-17. Russell Wilson was the starting QB and he completed 18/32 passes for 223 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. Samaje Perine led the team in rushing yards with 37. Jerry Jeudy led the receivers with 74 receiving yards on 3 receptions. Josey Jewell led the defense in that game with 7 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Jonathon Cooper and D.J. Jones each led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that game.
Patriots vs Broncos Prediction
The current betting odds have the Broncos listed as a 7 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Broncos have been a very up and down team this season with their 7-7 record overall as they were one of the worst teams in the NFL to start the season but they have pulled themselves right out of that hole and are now in playoff contention. They took a really bad loss on the road against the Lions last week but they are back at home now and will be looking to bounce back to keep their AFC Wild Card hopes alive. Meanwhile, the Patriots have looked terrible in their games all season with their 3-11 record overall and they are coming off another home loss by double digits in their last game. Nothing has been working for this Patriots team this season and they don't have anything to play for either since they have already been eliminated from playoff contention and now there are even rumors about Belichick being done after this season. The Broncos have been playing a lot better over the last few weeks and will be looking to bounce back here at home while also needing to win this game a lot more. The best way to place a bet here is on the Broncos to cover the spread in this game.
Patriots Broncos Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Sunday, December 24, 2023 (8:15 pm ET start time) is Broncos 27 Patriots 13.
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NFL Betting Trends
New England Patriots: 52-35 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. 9-5 ATS in a road game where the total is 35 or less. 20-9 ATS off a home loss by 10 or more points. 9-5 UNDER in all games. 7-1 UNDER after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game. 8-2 UNDER after 1 or more consecutive losses.
Denver Broncos: 8-15 ATS as a favorite. 3-10 ATS off 1 or more straight overs. 1-6 ATS after allowing 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game. 31-17 UNDER in all games. 7-2 UNDER after allowing 175 or more rushing yards last game.
Key Injuries
New England Patriots: J. Tavai (LB) Ques Sun - Ankle. M. Slater (WR) Ques Sun - Hamstring. J. Bentley (LB) Ques Sun - Knee. C. Barmore (DL) Ques Sun - Shoulder. J. Peppers (DB) Ques Sun - Hamstring. C. McDermott (OL) Ques Sun - Concussion. A. Jennings (LB) Ques Sun - Illness. C. Davis (DB) Ques Sun - Illness. M. Judon (LB) Early Jan - Bicep. R. Stevenson (RB) Early Jan - Ankle. T. Wheatley Jr. (OT) Ques Sun - Knee. J. Jackson (DB) Out indefinitely - Personal. S. Wade (CB) Ques Sun - Illness. J. Smith-Schuster (WR) Ques Sun - Ankle. T. Brown (OL) Ques Sun - Ankle. H. Henry (TE) Ques Sun - Knee. C. Strange (OL) I-R - Knee. R. Reiff (OL) Out indefinitely - Knee. C. Anderson (OL) Out indefinitely - Illness. K. Bourne (WR) I-R - Knee. C. Gonzalez (CB) I-R - Shoulder. D. Ekuale (DL) Out indefinitely - Bicep. M. Jones (DB) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. I. Bolden (CB) I-R - Neck. R. McMillan (LB) I-R - Achilles.
Denver Broncos: A. Palczewski (OT) Ques Sun - Hand. G. Dulcich (TE) Ques Sun - Hamstring. K. Jackson (S) Elig Sun - Suspension. N. Bonitto (LB) Ques Sun - Knee. E. Uwazurike (DL) out for season - Suspension. K. Williams (CB) I-R - Ankle. C. Sterns (S) I-R - Knee. J. Virgil (WR) I-R - Knee. J. Griffith (LB) I-R - Knee. T. Patrick (WR) I-R - Achilles.
Notable Quotes
“Nothing’s changed. We’ve got Denver this week, and we’ll do all we can to get the team ready to play well against Denver.” - Bill Belichick on the rumors of him being done as the head coach at the end of the season.
“I was upset about the call. That’s all. Simple. That’s it.” - Sean Payton after his team’s loss against the Lions in their last game.
Starting Lineups
New England Patriots
WR Parker, Devante
WR Thornton, Tyquan
WR Douglas, Demario
TE Henry, Hunter
QB Zappe, Bailey
RB Stevenson, Rhamondre
Denver Broncos
WR Sutton, Courtland
WR Mims Jr., Marvin
WR Jeudy, Jerry
TE Trautman, Adam
QB Wilson, Russell
RB Williams, Javonte
FB Burton, Michael
Statistical Leaders
New England Patriots
Passing: M. Jones (2120)
Rushing: R. Stevenson (619)
Receiving: D. Douglas (443)
Touchdowns: H. Henry (6)
Denver Broncos
Passing: R. Wilson (2832)
Rushing: J. Williams (677)
Receiving: C. Sutton (770)
Touchdowns: C. Sutton (10)
Coaches:
New England Patriots: Bill Belichick (24th season)
Denver Broncos: Sean Payton (1st season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
