by Rod Pearson
Monday, Jan 19, 2026
Game Time: 3:00 pm ET, Sunday, January 25, 2026
Venue: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
Where to Watch: CBS, Paramount+
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Patriots -5.5, Broncos +5.5; Over/Under: 41.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Patriots -4.5, Broncos +4.5; Over/Under: 41.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Patriots -5.5, Broncos +5.5; Over/Under: 41.5 points
Season Record
New England Patriots: 14-3 (1st place, AFC East)
Denver Broncos: 14-3 (1st place, AFC West)
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Recent Form
New England Patriots: won their last game at home against the Houston Texans 28-16.
Denver Broncos: won their last game at home against the Buffalo Bills 33-30 in overtime.
New England Patriots vs Denver Broncos Preview and Analysis
The Patriots are entering this game with a 14-3 record overall and they have a 5-1 record in their divisional games too. They are 6-3 in their home games, 8-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against the Houston Texans 28-16. Drake Maye was the starting QB and he completed 16/27 passes for 179 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Rhamondre Stevenson led the team in rushing yards with 70. Kayshon Boutte led the receivers with 75 receiving yards on 3 receptions and 1 TD. Christian Gonzalez led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while Khyiris Tonga, Anfernee Jennings, and K'Lavon Chaisson each led the defense in sacks with 1. Carlton Davis III came away with 2 interceptions while Craig Woodson and Marcus Jones each came away with 1 interception for them in that one.
The Broncos are entering this game with a 14-3 record overall and they have a 5-1 record in their divisional games too. They are 8-1 in their home games, 5-2 in their road games, and they are also 1-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against the Buffalo Bills 33-30 in OT. Bo Nix was the starting QB and he completed 26/46 passes for 279 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Bo Nix led the team in rushing yards with 29. Marvin Mims Jr. led the receivers with 93 receiving yards on 8 receptions and 1 TD. Alex Singleton led the defense in that game with 11 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while Malcolm Roach led the defense in sacks with 1.5. P.J. Locke and Ja'Quan McMillian each came away with 1 interception for them in that one.
Patriots vs Broncos Prediction
The current betting odds have the Patriots listed as a 5.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Patriots have looked great in their games this season with their 14-3 record overall which had them right at the top of the AFC East. They have been a great road team too with their 8-0 road record this season. Meanwhile, the Broncos have looked great in their games this season with their 14-3 record overall which had them right at the top of the AFC West. They have looked great on their home field too with their 8-1 home record this year. The Broncos are off a 33-30 win over the Bills in their last one and their offense looked great even when their defense didn't. They have one of the best defenses in the NFL that isn't going to look that bad again in back-to-back games, but now the Broncos are dealing with a whole new issue. They lost Bo Nix to a broken ankle at the end of that game so they are going to have to roll out Stidham in this one, and that gives a huge blow to their Super Bowl hopes. The Patriots have been rolling all season and even with one of the weakest schedules in decades, they continue to pass every test thrown at them. They are off a 28-16 win over the Texans in their last one and they have beaten 2 really good teams in the playoffs now. Now they are going on the road and Denver is no easy place to play, but they have a big advantage now with the starting QB for the Broncos being out. Drake Maye just saw an elite defense in the Texans so he will be ready for this Broncos defense, and this Patriots defense has looked really good lately too. The Patriots are going to be able to shut down this up and down Broncos offense that now has a backup QB running the show. The best way to place a bet here is on the Patriots to cover the spread in this game.
Patriots Broncos Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Sunday, January 25, 2026 (3:00 pm ET start time) is Patriots 27 Broncos 13.
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NFL Betting Trends
New England Patriots: 7-3 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. 5-1 ATS after a 2 game home stand. 9-5 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record. 11-4 OVER when playing against a team with a winning record. 7-3 OVER after 3 or more consecutive wins.
Denver Broncos: 3-6 ATS after a 2 game home stand. 2-5 ATS after a win by 6 or less points. 8-4 OVER in a home game where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points. 8-2 OVER after scoring 30 points or more last game. 9-5 OVER after 3 or more consecutive wins.
Key Injuries
New England Patriots: C. Gonzalez (CB) Injured - Concussion. T. Jennings (RB) Questionable - Concussion. H. Henry (TE) Injured - Knee. M. Moses (OT) Injured - Knee. A. Jennings (LB) Injured - Knee. H. Landry III (LB) Questionable - Knee. K. Tonga (DL) Injured - Foot. T. Munford Jr. (OT) Injured - Knee. A. Austin (CB) Injured - Wrist.
Denver Broncos: D. Greenlaw (LB) Injured - Hamstring. J. Franklin-Myers (DL) Injured - Hip. L. Krull (TE) Out - Foot. D. Sanders (LB) Out - Ankle.
Notable Quotes
"Everybody’s stepping up. We’re using everybody. Everybody’s making plays. Everybody’s helping us win. I’m excited for these guys, but also, they’re not satisfied, and I can tell that.” - Mike Vrabel after his team’s win against the Texans in the Divisional Round.
“We celebrate the season for him. And listen, the city's ready and we'll be ready for the next challenge.” - Sean Payton after his team’s win against the Bills in the Divisional Round.
Starting Lineups
New England Patriots
WR Boutte, Kayshon
WR Diggs, Stefon
WR Douglas, DeMario
TE Henry, Hunter
QB Maye, Drake
RB Stevenson, Rhamondre
FB Westover, Jack
Denver Broncos
WR Sutton, Courtland
WR Mims Jr., Marvin
WR Humphrey, Lil'Jordan
TE Trautman, Adam
QB Stidham, Jarrett
RB Harvey, RJ
FB Prentice, Adam
Statistical Leaders
New England Patriots
Passing: Drake Maye (4,394)
Rushing: TreVeyon Henderson (911)
Receiving: Stefon Diggs (1,013)
Touchdowns: TreVeyon Henderson (10)
Denver Broncos
Passing: Bo Nix (3,931)
Rushing: J.K. Dobbins (772)
Receiving: Courtland Sutton (1,017)
Touchdowns: RJ Harvey (12)
Coaches:
New England Patriots: Mike Vrabel (1st season)
Denver Broncos: Sean Payton (3rd season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
