by Rod Pearson
Tuesday, Nov 18, 2025
Game Time: 1:00 pm ET, Sunday, November 23, 2025
Venue: Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
Where to Watch: CBS
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Patriots -8.5, Bengals +8.5; Over/Under: 49.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Patriots -8.5, Bengals +8.5; Over/Under: 49.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Patriots -8.5, Bengals +8.5; Over/Under: 49.5 points
Season Record
New England Patriots: 9-2 (1st place, AFC East)
Cincinnati Bengals: 3-7 (3rd place, AFC North)
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Recent Form
New England Patriots: won their last game at home against the New York Jets 27-14.
Cincinnati Bengals: lost their last game on the road against the Pittsburgh Steelers 34-12.
New England Patriots vs Cincinnati Bengals Preview and Analysis
The Patriots are entering this game with a 9-2 record overall and they have a 3-0 record in their divisional games too. They are 4-2 in their home games, 5-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against the New York Jets 27-14. Drake Maye was the starting QB and he completed 25/34 passes for 281 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. TreVeyon Henderson led the team in rushing yards with 62 and 2 TDs. Stefon Diggs led the receivers with 105 receiving yards on 9 receptions. Robert Spillane led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 4 assisted tackles while Christian Barmore and Elijah Ponder each led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
The Bengals are entering this game with a 3-7 record overall and they have a 2-1 record in their divisional games too. They are 2-3 in their home games, 1-4 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against the Pittsburgh Steelers 34-12. Joe Flacco was the starting QB and he completed 23/40 passes for 199 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. Chase Brown led the team in rushing yards with 99. Tee Higgins led the receivers with 63 receiving yards on 3 receptions and 1 TD. Geno Stone led the defense in that game with 4 solo tackles and 4 assisted tackles while Myles Murphy led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
Patriots vs Bengals Prediction
The current betting odds have the Patriots listed as an 8.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Patriots have looked great in their games this season with their 9-2 record overall which has them right at the top of the AFC East with one of the best records in the entire NFL. They are off a 27-14 win over the Jets in their last one and they have been rolling over teams all season. Meanwhile, the Bengals haven't looked good in their games this season with their 3-7 record overall which has them right near the bottom of the AFC North. They are off a terrible 34-12 loss to the Steelers in their last one and now they are going to be without Chase who picked up a suspension. The offense has been the only good thing about this Bengals team all season, but now they are going to be missing their best player and that defense hasn't gotten any better either. The Patriots have been beating up on bad teams all season, putting up a ton of points in their wins too, and this Bengals defense is one of the worst in the NFL. This is a bad situation for the Bengals against the hottest team in the NFL with a ton of momentum on their side from 8 wins in a row. The best way to place a bet here is on the Patriots to cover the spread in this game.
Patriots Bengals Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Sunday, November 23, 2025 (1:00 pm ET start time) is Patriots 38 Bengals 24.
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NFL Betting Trends
New England Patriots: 4-8 ATS after playing a division game. 3-8 ATS when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%). 3-6 ATS vs. poor teams - outscored by 6+ points per game on the season. 10-4 OVER versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.65 yards/play or more.
Cincinnati Bengals: 4-1 ATS in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5. 5-0 ATS after 3 or more consecutive losses. 7-4 ATS vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game. 16-6 OVER in home games. 10-3 OVER in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5.
Key Injuries
New England Patriots: A. Hooper (TE) Injured - Concussion. M. Moses (OT) Injured - NIR - Rest. H. Landry III (LB) Injured - Knee. J. Tavai (LB) Injured - NIR - Personal. K. Chaisson (LB) Injured - Ankle. C. Elliss (LB) Injured - Hip. C. Barmore (DL) Injured - NIR - Other. R. Stevenson (RB) Injured - Toe. K. Boutte (WR) Injured - Hamstring. T. Jennings (RB) Injured - Knee. J. Farmer (DL) Injured - Ankle.
Cincinnati Bengals: T. Hendrickson (DL) Injured - Hip. J. Flacco (QB) Injured - Shoulder. S. Perine (RB) Injured - Ankle. M. Gesicki (TE) Injured - Pectoral. J. Burrow (QB) Injured - Toe. C. Sample (DL) Injured - Oblique. C. Taylor-Britt (CB) Injured - Foot. J. Ossai (DL) Injured - Ankle. C. Johnson (DL) Injured - Ankle. D. Anthony (S) Injured - Hamstring. J. Burton (WR) Injured - Illness. J. Rivers (OG) Injured - Knee.
Notable Quotes
“Don’t fix it if it ain’t broke. He wants to be great.” - Drake Maye on TreVeyon Henderson after their win against the Jets in their last game.
“You knew they were going to make it tough for us, and we just couldn't come through in those little moments.” - Joe Flacco after their loss against the Steelers in their last game.
Starting Lineups
New England Patriots
WR Williams, Kyle
WR Hollins, Mack
WR Diggs, Stefon
TE Henry, Hunter
QB Maye, Drake
RB Henderson, TreVeyon
FB Westover, Jack
Cincinnati Bengals
WR Tinsley, Mitch
WR Higgins, Tee
WR Iosivas, Andrei
TE Fant, Noah
QB Flacco, Joe
RB Brown, Chase
Statistical Leaders
New England Patriots
Passing: Drake Maye (2,836)
Rushing: TreVeyon Henderson (492)
Receiving: Stefon Diggs (659)
Touchdowns: TreVeyon Henderson (6)
Cincinnati Bengals
Passing: Joe Flacco (1,453)
Rushing: Chase Brown (519)
Receiving: Ja'Marr Chase (861)
Touchdowns: Tee Higgins (7)
Coaches:
New England Patriots: Mike Vrabel (1st season)
Cincinnati Bengals: Zac Taylor (7th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
