by Rod Pearson
Tuesday, Oct 20, 2026
Game Time: 8:15 pm ET, Thursday, October 22, 2026
Venue: Soldier Field, Chicago, IL
Where to Watch: Prime Video
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Patriots +3, Bears -3; Over/Under: 50.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Patriots +3, Bears -3; Over/Under: 50.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Patriots +3, Bears -3; Over/Under: 50.5 points
Season Record
New England Patriots: 4-2 (2nd place, AFC East)
Chicago Bears: 4-2 (3rd place, NFC North)
Do not miss out on our expert handicapper analysis! Matt Fargo is on a HOT STREAK in the NFL on a 24-8-2 NFL RUN for +$15,240 PROFIT! Make sure you check out his picks and many more from the expert handicappers featured in the Shop Picks section.
Recent Form
New England Patriots: won their last game at home against the New York Jets 26-19.
Chicago Bears: won their last game on the road against the Atlanta Falcons 31-23.
New England Patriots vs Chicago Bears Preview and Analysis
The Patriots are entering this game with a 4-2 record overall and they have a 2-0 record in their divisional games too. They are 3-0 in their home games, 1-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against the New York Jets 26-19. Drake Maye was the starting QB and he completed 18/32 passes for 235 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Corey Kiner led the team in rushing yards with 57. DeMario Douglas led the receivers with 86 receiving yards on 7 receptions and 1 TD. Marcus Jones led the defense in that game with 8 solo tackles while Milton Williams, Elijah Ponder, and Christian Barmore each led the defense in sacks with 1. Charles Woods came away with the only interception for them in that one.
The Bears are entering this game with a 4-2 record overall and they have a 0-2 record in their divisional games too. They are 2-1 in their home games, 2-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against the Atlanta Falcons 31-23. Caleb Williams was the starting QB and he completed 30/36 passes for 305 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. Roschon Johnson led the team in rushing yards with 51 and 1 TD. Luther Burden III led the receivers with 95 receiving yards on 8 receptions. Devin Bush led the defense in that game with 7 solo tackles while Kyler Gordon led the defense in sacks with 3. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
Patriots vs Bears Prediction
The current betting odds have the Patriots listed as a 3 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Patriots have looked good in their games this season with their 4-2 record overall which has them right near the top of the AFC East. They haven't been a great road team though with their 1-2 road record this year. Meanwhile, the Bears have looked good in their games this season with their 4-2 record overall which has them right in the middle of the NFC North. They have looked good on their home field too with their 2-1 home record this season. The Bears are coming off a 31-23 road win over the Falcons and that game wasn't as close as the score suggests. The Bears were in control of that game from start to finish and Caleb Williams looked great in his return to the team. Now they have some momentum entering this game, but their opponent is also starting to gain some momentum after a rough start to the year. The Patriots are coming off a 26-19 win over the Jets in their last one and they have won 3 games in a row now. Drake Maye has looked a lot better in this offense lately and the Patriots do have a big edge here with a much stronger defense that has been in the top half of the NFL going back to last season. The Bears definitely have the talent on offense to keep up with the Patriots here, but the Bears also have a bottom half defense that has been terrible going back to last season and that is going to play a big role in this one. Look for the better defense to help keep the Patriots in this road game with a chance to win. The best way to place a bet here is on the Patriots to cover the spread in this game.
Patriots Bears Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Thursday, October 22, 2026 (8:15 pm ET start time) is Patriots 23 Bears 20.
Don't miss our champion handicappers free picks and expert football picks today. And if you enjoyed this New England Patriots Chicago Bears prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our weekly NFL predictions and previews.
NFL Betting Trends
New England Patriots: 6-3 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less. 9-5 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.65 yards/play or more. 6-1 ATS off 3 or more consecutive overs. 23-16 UNDER against NFC North division opponents. 21-14 UNDER in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5.
Chicago Bears: 16-27 ATS in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5. 34-53 ATS after scoring 30 points or more last game. 48-69 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. 8-3 UNDER as a home favorite of 7 points or less. 7-2 UNDER after scoring 30 points or more last game.
Key Injuries
New England Patriots: B. Brown (C) Injured - Knee. A. Vera-Tucker (OG) Injured - Hamstring. J. Farmer (DL) Injured - NIR - Personal. A. Borregales (K) Injured - NIR - Personal. K. Byard III (S) Injured - Chest. M. Moses (OT) Injured - Foot. C. Davis III (CB) Injured - Neck. A. Brown (WR) Injured - Ankle. D. Jones (LB) Injured - Shoulder. C. Elliss (LB) Injured - Chest. D. Maye (QB) Injured - Shoulder. M. Bryant (OT) Injured - Ankle. W. Campbell (OT) Injured - Knee. C. Woodson (S) Injured - Shoulder. T. Henderson (RB) Injured - Ankle. K. Prunty (CB) Injured - Hamstring. C. Canada (CB) Injured - Hamstring.
Chicago Bears: J. Sanborn (LB) Injured - Concussion. J. Jackson (OG) Injured - Hip. T. Edwards (LB) Injured - Hamstring. T. Stevenson Sr. (CB) Injured - Hip. K. Elliott (LB) Injured - Quadricep. K. Monangai (RB) Injured - Thumb.
Notable Quotes
“None of us were at our best today, but we were good enough.” - Mike Vrabel after his team’s win against the Jets in their last game.
“We just got to be more aware of it and play cleaner football with our hands and things of that nature. So what we’ll look at that. We had some penalty issues early in the season. Last few weeks we cleaned those up significantly. This one is kind of back up again." - Ben Johnson after his team’s win against the Falcons in their last game.
Starting Lineups
New England Patriots
WR Chism III, Efton
WR Brown, A.J.
WR Douglas, DeMario
TE Henry, Hunter
QB Maye, Drake
RB Stevenson, Rhamondre
Chicago Bears
WR Odunze, Rome
WR Burden III, Luther
WR Raymond, Kalif
TE Loveland, Colston
QB Williams, Caleb
RB Swift, D'Andre
Statistical Leaders
New England Patriots
Passing: Drake Maye (1,463)
Rushing: Rhamondre Stevenson (263)
Receiving: Romeo Doubs (261)
Touchdowns: Romeo Doubs (3)
Chicago Bears
Passing: Caleb Williams (712)
Rushing: D'Andre Swift (398)
Receiving: Luther Burden III (361)
Touchdowns: D'Andre Swift (6)
Coaches:
New England Patriots: Mike Vrabel (2nd season)
Chicago Bears: Ben Johnson (2nd season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
