New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills Prediction, Preview and Odds - 12/31/2023

Game Time: 1:00 pm ET, Sunday, December 31, 2023

Venue:  Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY

Where to Watch:  CBS

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Patriots +14, Bills -14; Over/Under:  40 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Patriots +14, Bills -14; Over/Under:  40 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Patriots +14, Bills -14; Over/Under:  40 points

New England Patriots:  4-11 (4th place, AFC East)

Buffalo Bills:  9-6 (2nd place, AFC East)

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New England Patriots:  won their last game on the road against the Denver Broncos 26-23.

Buffalo Bills:  won their last game on the road against the Los Angeles Chargers 24-22.

The Patriots are entering this game with a 4-11 record overall and they have a 2-2 record in their divisional games too. They are 1-6 in their home games, 3-4 in their road games, and they are also 0-1 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against the Denver Broncos 26-23. Bailey Zappe was the starting QB and he completed 25/33 passes for 256 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Ezekiel Elliott led the team in rushing yards with 27. Demario Douglas led the receivers with 74 receiving yards on 5 receptions. Myles Bryant led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle while Christian Barmore led the defense in sacks with 3. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that game.

 

 

 

The Bills are entering this game with a 9-6 record overall and they have a 2-2 record in their divisional games too. They are 6-1 in their home games, 3-4 in their road games, and they are also 0-1 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against the LA Chargers 24-22. Josh Allen was the starting QB and he completed 15/21 passes for 237 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. James Cook led the team in rushing yards with 70. Gabe Davis led the receivers with 130 receiving yards on 4 receptions and 1 TD. Taylor Rapp led the defense in that game with 7 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Ed Oliver led the defense in sacks with 2. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that game.

The current betting odds have the Patriots listed as a 14 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Patriots have looked terrible in their games this season with their 4-11 record overall and they have already been eliminated from playoff contention. They have looked a lot better in their road games this season with their 3-4 road record, which is a lot better than their home record this year, but they have also looked a lot better in their games lately since starting Bailey Zappe at QB. Meanwhile, the Bills have looked good this season with their 9-6 record overall but they are fighting for a Wild Card spot in the AFC. They have looked great in their home games all season with their 6-1 home record and they have also looked a lot better in their games lately as they are surging toward the playoffs. They didn't look great in their win against the Chargers last week though considering all the things the Chargers are dealing with and they were lucky to escape that game with a win. They are back at home here and will play a better game as they still need to win but this is still a divisional game against the Patriots who have looked a lot better lately and Belichick has given the Bills fits many times in the past. The Bills may win this game but they aren't covering this large number. The best way to place a bet here is on the Patriots to cover the spread in this game. 

Patriots Bills Prediction:  Our NFL Pick for Sunday, December 31, 2023 (1:00 pm ET start time) is Bills 24 Patriots 16.

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New England Patriots: 4-10 ATS in all games. 8-17 ATS as an underdog. 6-14 ATS after playing their last game on the road. 7-2 UNDER after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game. 6-3 UNDER in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points.

Buffalo Bills: 8-3 ATS as a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points. 23-15 ATS off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite. 44-18 ATS after a win by 3 or less points. 10-5 UNDER in all games. 29-17 UNDER as a favorite. 6-2 UNDER after a win by 6 or less points.

New England Patriots:  K. Dugger (DB) Ques Sun - Illness. J. Mills (DB) Prob Sun - Concussion. T. Brown (OL) Prob Sun - Illness. J. Smith-Schuster (WR) Out Sun - Ankle. E. Elliott (RB) Prob Sun - Illness. S. Wade (CB) Ques Sun - Hip. J. Jones (DB) Ques Sun - Knee. A. Jennings (LB) Ques Sun - Knee. M. Bryant (DB) Ques Sun - Chest. J. Bentley (LB) Ques Sun - Knee. C. Barmore (DL) Ques Sun - Knee. R. Stevenson (RB) I-R - Ankle. T. Wheatley Jr. (OT) Ques Sun - Knee. H. Henry (TE) Ques Sun - Knee. M. Slater (WR) Ques Sun - Hamstring. J. Peppers (DB) Ques Sun - Hamstring. C. McDermott (OL) I-R - Concussion. M. Judon (LB) Early Jan - Bicep. J. Jackson (DB) Out indefinitely - Personal. C. Strange (OL) I-R - Knee. R. Reiff (OL) Out indefinitely - Knee. C. Anderson (OL) Out indefinitely - Illness. K. Bourne (WR) I-R - Knee. C. Gonzalez (CB) I-R - Shoulder. D. Ekuale (DL) Out indefinitely - Bicep. M. Jones (DB) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. I. Bolden (CB) I-R - Neck. R. McMillan (LB) I-R - Achilles.

Buffalo Bills:  M. Hyde (S) Prob Sun - Stinger. T. Bernard (LB) Prob Sun - Ankle. S. Lawson (DE) Prob Sun - Illness. T. Johnson (RB) Prob Sun - Shoulder. D. Williams (LB) Prob Sun - Knee. C. Lewis (CB) Prob Sun - Thumb. R. Ferguson (LS) Prob Sun - Thumb. D. Hamlin (S) Ques Sun - Shoulder. K. Elam (CB) Prob Sun - Ankle. J. Shorter (WR) Ques Sun - Hamstring. D. Jones (DT) Ques Sun - Pectoral. A. Epenesa (DE) Ques Sun - Ribs. J. Phillips (DT) Out indefinitely - Wrist. D. Harris (RB) Out indefinitely - Neck. M. Milano (LB) I-R - Leg. T. White (CB) I-R - Achilles. T. Doyle (OT) I-R - Knee. Z. Davidson (TE) I-R - Knee. N. Hines (RB) I-R - Knee.

“You don’t want to turn the ball over, but if they don’t get any points, that’s a win, of course. To have a defense like we do, I mean it’s phenomenal. It’s just awesome to see those guys play. They’re one of the best — if not the best — defenses in the entire league.” - Bailey Zappe after their win against the Broncos in their last game. 

“(The Chargers) were doing some things that they hadn’t shown (this season). They came in well-prepared. I thought our guys settled in and responded. We did a good job in the red zone and had some big plays on third down to help us out.” - Sean McDermott after his team’s win against the LA Chargers in their last game. 

WR Parker, Devante 

WR Thornton, Tyquan 

WR Douglas, Demario 

TE Henry, Hunter 

QB Zappe, Bailey 

RB Elliott, Ezekiel 

WR Diggs, Stefon 

WR Davis, Gabe 

WR Shakir, Khalil  

TE Kincaid, Dalton  

QB Allen, Josh 

RB Cook, James 

FB Gilliam, Reggie

Passing: M. Jones (2120)

Rushing: R. Stevenson (619)

Receiving: D. Douglas (517)

Touchdowns: H. Henry (6)

Passing: J. Allen (3778)

Rushing: J. Cook (1038)

Receiving: S. Diggs (1070)

Touchdowns: J. Allen (13)

Coaches:

New England Patriots: Bill Belichick (24th season)

Buffalo Bills: Sean McDermott (7th season)