New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills Prediction, Preview and Odds - 10/04/2026

Game Time: 1:00 pm ET, Sunday, October 4, 2026

Venue:  Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY

Where to Watch:  CBS

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Patriots +7, Bills -7; Over/Under:  48.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Patriots +6.5, Bills -6.5; Over/Under:  48.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Patriots +6.5, Bills -6.5; Over/Under:  48.5 points

New England Patriots:  1-2 (2nd place, AFC East)

Buffalo Bills:  3-0 (1st place, AFC East)

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New England Patriots:  lost their last game on the road against the Jacksonville Jaguars 35-6.

Buffalo Bills:  won their last game at home against the Los Angeles Chargers 24-16.

The Patriots are entering this game with a 1-2 record overall and they have a 0-0 record in their divisional games too. They are 1-0 in their home games, 0-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against the Jacksonville Jaguars 35-6. Drake Maye was the starting QB and he completed 14/25 passes for 199 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. TreVeyon Henderson led the team in rushing yards with 23. Mack Hollins led the receivers with 87 receiving yards on 6 receptions. Carlton Davis III led the defense in that game with 8 solo tackles while Gabe Jacas and Elijah Ponder each led the defense in sacks with 0.5. Marcus Jones came away with the only interception for them in that one.

 

 

 

The Bills are entering this game with a 3-0 record overall and they have a 0-0 record in their divisional games too. They are 2-0 in their home games, 1-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against the Los Angeles Chargers 24-16. Josh Allen was the starting QB and he completed 16/26 passes for 204 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. James Cook led the team in rushing yards with 154 and 1 TD. DJ Moore led the receivers with 67 receiving yards on 6 receptions. Dorian Williams led the defense in that game with 9 solo tackles while Greg Rousseau led the defense in sacks with 2. C. J. Gardner-Johnson came away with the only interception for them in that one.

The current betting odds have the Bills listed as a 7 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Bills have looked great in their games this season with their 3-0 record overall which has them right at the top of the AFC East. They have looked great on their home field too with their 2-0 home record this season. Meanwhile, the Patriots haven't looked good in their games this season with their 1-2 record overall which has them right in the middle of the AFC East. They have been a terrible road team too with their 0-2 road record this year. The Patriots only win this season was at home against the Steelers, but the defense really won them that game. They lost to the Seahawks 13-10 in their season opener, failing to take advantage of a backup QB for the Seahawks, and now they are coming off a 35-6 loss to the Jaguars in their last one. That was the first game this season that the defense looked bad in, but the offense looked terrible and they have looked like that in all 3 games this year. Drake Maye has taken a big step back as a QB and they aren't going to have it any easier in this divisional game. The Bills have been rolling in their games and have looked great in every game this season. They crushed the Texans and the Lions to start the season and even when they didn't look good against the Chargers last week, turning the ball over 5 times, they still found a way to win by 8 points. The defense has taken some big steps toward improving this season and the offense has looked unstoppable with Josh Allen playing at a really high level. Look for the Bills to keep rolling at home and take advantage of a Patriots team that just hasn't looked good after making a Super Bowl appearance. The best way to place a bet here is on the Bills to cover the spread in this game. 

Patriots Bills Prediction:  Our NFL Pick for Sunday, October 4, 2026 (1:00 pm ET start time) is Bills 31 Patriots 14.

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New England Patriots: 7-4 ATS versus division opponents. 5-2 ATS after allowing 30 points or more last game. 6-3 ATS versus good rushing teams - averaging 4.5 rushing yards/carry or more. 5-1 OVER after a loss by 14 or more points. 10-2 OVER versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.65 yards/play or more. 

Buffalo Bills: 1-5 ATS after a 2 game home stand. 3-8 ATS after 3 or more consecutive wins. 0-5 ATS vs. poor offensive teams - scoring 17 or less points/game. 12-6 OVER as a home favorite. 10-4 OVER when playing against a team with a losing record.

New England Patriots:  None.

Buffalo Bills:  None.

“I think he knows what to do. I think we have to do it better. We all want to make plays. We just have to make some good ones. If it’s not there, I think sometimes you can want it too badly, and we can’t force it.” - Mike Vrabel after his team’s loss against the Jaguars in their last game. 

“Sitting there to be tied at halftime felt like a dream, to be honest. Our defense played fantastic. It’s not a game that you expect to win, but we’ll take them any way we can get them.” - Josh Allen after their win against the LA Chargers in their last game. 

WR Doubs, Romeo

WR Hollins, Mack

WR Douglas, DeMario

TE Henry, Hunter

QB Maye, Drake

RB Henderson, TreVeyon

FB Gilliam, Reggie

WR Coleman, Keon

WR Moore, DJ

WR Shakir, Khalil 

TE Kincaid, Dalton

QB Allen, Josh

RB Cook III, James

Passing: Drake Maye (585)

Rushing: Rhamondre Stevenson (116)

Receiving: Mack Hollins (156)

Touchdowns: Eli Raridon (1)

Passing: Josh Allen (786)

Rushing: James Cook III (346)

Receiving: Dalton Kincaid (263)

Touchdowns: Josh Allen (6)

Coaches:

New England Patriots: Mike Vrabel (2nd season)

Buffalo Bills: Joe Brady (1st season)