Venue: High Mark Stadium, Orchard park, New York

Where to Watch: ESPN

Opening NFL Odds at USA Sportsbooks

Caesars: Spread:  Bills -2.5 : O/U 44

BetMGM:  Spread:  Bill -2.5; : O/U 43.5

Patriots: 8-4 (AFC East)

Bill: 7-4 (AFC East)

This is not an AFC East matchup between Mac Jones and Josh Allen… no matter how it may be framed that is not what this is.  This is a matchup of Bill Belichick vs Josh Allen, New England games are always about Bill Belichick.  Mac Jones is just the device that makes Bill feel most confident about his offense.  NFL Week 13 is here and Monday Night Football is shaping up to be a great betting opportunity.

Buffalo Games are always about Josh Allen… especially Buffalo home games.  Fans will be diving through tables, spitting beer into the snow, screaming their hearts out… but they will all be wearing an Allen jersey.  The Bills are favored with the latest spread by 2.5… and monday’s total is projected to be 43.5 - 44.  QB Josh Allen has made everybody forget that just a couple years ago this franchise was no better than the Jets and had many a losing NFL season.

 

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RECENT FORM

The Patriots are 8-4 on the season and 8-4 ATS.  They have logged 6 Overs and 6 Unders.  They are a decisive 5-0 in road games. They are on an amazing 6 game win streak with a rookie quarterback.  They have beaten the Tennessee Titans, the Atlanta Falcons, the Cleveland Browns, the Carolina Panthers, the Los Angeles Chargers, and the New York Jets… Their last loss was way back on Oct 17th against the Dallas Cowboys in overtime!  This is a team that lost their first three games of the season… and in true Belichick fashion now look ready for the postseason… behind a rookie quarterback and the best NFL coach who has ever lived.

The Bills are 7-4 on the season, but 6-4-1 ATS.  They have notched 5 Overs and 6 Unders.  They are 3-2 in home games. Buffalo lost to the Indianapolis Colts 41-15 the week before last.  They lost to the Jacksonville Jaguars 9-6 on Nov 7th, they lost to the Tennessee Titans 34-31, and to the Pittsburgh Steelers in the first game of the season.  The wins were fun… they beat the Kansas City Chiefs, the Miami Dolphins, the Washington Football Team, the Houston Texans, The New York Jets… Do you see the pattern?... They have a lot of wins against terrible teams and they lost to the worst in Jacksonville.  They will get spanked on Monday night.

 

The Patriots are 7th in the NFL in points scored with 28… that may be why their rookie is working out.  They are 7th in yards per game with 355.3… that may be why their rookie is working out,  They are 14th in passing yards and 12th in rushing yards.  Bill has his team exactly where he always wants them… competitive in every stat and a young inexpensive quarterback leading the charge.  So what?... if they had a bad October,.. Bill always has a bad October… then wins a plenty. Jones is 3rd highest in the league with converting 70% of his passes.

The Bills are 2nd in the NFL in  points with 29.6 per game.  They are 6th in passing with 389.3 yards per game. They break down to 7th in passing and 11th in rushing… They have beat the Jets, the Dolphins, and lost to the Jaguars.  They aren’t as good as their numbers.

The Patriots are 4th in defense in the NFL. They give up 316.7 yards per game, they are 3rd in pass defense with 200.9 yards per game… the deficiency is in rush yards where they give up 115.8 and rank 20th, no worries because the Bills won’t do anything but pass.  The Patriots defense is 1st in defending points only giving up 15.8 per game… they are also 2nd in takeaways with 25.  

The Bills are 1st in defense (against Jets, Dolphins, and a loss to the Jaguars) by only giving up 275.2 yards per game.  They are 2nd in pass defense and 6th in rush defense… all flippancy aside, the Bills are a great team… they just won’t hold up against the Patriots.  Bet your big money on this game.

Our prediction for Monday, December 6th is… Patriots 28 - Bills 22

Yes, the Patriots will win outright if you want to increase your return on the moneyline.  Coach Belichick has his swagger back, he has a clone of young Tom Brady at QB, he loves beating the Bills, the Miami Dolphins and the Jets.  He’s done it more than anyone in all of NFL history and he’s not done doing it.

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The Patriots are 8-4 ATS this season.

The Patriots are 4-1 ATS in road games this season.

The Patriots are 5-2 ATS against conference opponents this season.

The Bills are 6-4 ATS as a favorite this season.

The Bills are 12-5 ATS when the line is +3 - -3 over the last 3 seasons.

Patriots: QB Mac jones, RB Damien Harris, WR Nelson Agholor, WR Jakobi Meyers, WR Kendrick Bourne, TE Jonnu Smith, LT Isaiah Wynn, LG Ted Karras, C David Andrews, RG Shaq Mason, RT Trent Brown

Bills: QB Josh Allen, RB Devin Singletary, Wr Emmanuel Sanders, WR Stefon Diggs, TE Reggie Gilliam, TE Dawson Knox, LT Dion Dawkins, LG Ike Boettger, OC Mitch Morse, RG Cory Ford, RT Daryl Williams

Patriots

Passing yards: Mac Jones 2,850

Rushing Yards: Damien Harris 643

Receiving Yards: Kendrick Bourne 623

Sacks: Matt Judon 11.5

Interceptions: J.C. Jackson 7

Touchdowns: Damien Harris 8

Bills

Passing Yards: Josh Allen 3,071

Rushing Yards: Devin Singletary 459

Receiving Yards: Stefon Diggs 847

Touchdowns: Zack Moss 4

Sacks: Mario Addison

Interceptions: Jordan Poyer 5

 

COACHES

Patriots: Bill Belichick.  Coach Belichick… Nothing more needs to be said.

Bills: Sean McDermott.  Coach McDermott has had the Bills job since 2017.  He has been building this team slowly, but steadily. He hopes this is the year he moves the postseasons record from 2-3 to above .500.

Rain and snow.  It’s Buffalo so rain and snow.  45* Humidity 64%.  High winds at 24 mph.  Those high winds are an advantage to the Patriots because of the focus on run vs pass in this game.