by Chuck Sommers
Wednesday, Nov 17, 2021
Game time: 8:20 p.m. ET
Venue: Mercedes Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Where to watch: NFL Network
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Patriots -7
BetMGM: Patriots -6.5
Caesars: Patriots -7
Season record
Patriots: 6-4 (2nd place, AFC East)
Falcons: 4-5 (Last place, NFC South)
Al McMordie CASHED his NFL Game of the Month last week on the New Orleans Saints (part of a 9-3 Sunday), and is an awesome 100-73 this Football Season going into this week's action (and 777-586 his last 1363). Now, for Sunday, Big Al's #1 NFL Play is RIGHT HERE. Catch Al’s and other plays available right now at the Shop Picks page, where you can find all of the Best Bets from our champion sports handicappers.
Patriots - Falcons preview and analysis
Last week
Patriots: won 45-7 vs. Browns
Falcons: lost 43-3 at Cowboys
Don’t look now, but here come the New England Patriots.
We’re not quite sure what happened since that overtime loss to the Dallas Cowboys on Oct. 17, but they’ve been red-hot winning four in a row with two quality wins over the Los Angeles Chargers and Cleveland Browns.
Now the Patriots, firmly settled in the AFC East race with the struggling Buffalo Bills keeping their head above water, will look to win their fifth straight game on Thursday Night Football when they visit the Atlanta Falcons at Mercedes Benz Stadium.
If you have any pent-up 28-3 jokes in your arsenal, you have about a day to get them all out now.
Because yes, the last time these two met was Super Bowl LI in Houston where Tom Brady and the Patriots led the comeback of all comebacks to win their fifth championship with a 34-28 overtime win. The last regular season meeting between these two saw the Patriots win 23-7 in October 2017.
The last time the Patriots were in Atlanta, they also won that one, 30-23 in September 2013.
In short, the Patriots have dominated the series against the Falcons. After Atlanta won six of the first nine, New England has won the past five. Brady might not be the quarterback anymore, but the future appears bright with rookie QB Mac Jones leading the charge.
The former Alabama signal-caller had season highs in completion percentage (82.6), passer rating (142.1) and three touchdowns in the dominant victory over the Browns at home. Jones will try to become the third rookie quarterback ever to win his first five road starts; only Ben Roethlisberger and Dak Prescott have done that.
The Browns took a 7-0 lead early in the first quarter, and from then on the Patriots just whooped them. Jones finished with 198 yards and those three touchdowns, while running back Rhamondre Stevenson finished with 100 yards on 20 carries and two touchdowns. Wide receiver Kendrick Bourne caught his first NFL touchdown pass while also reeling in four receptions for 98 yards.
"That's how you want to play the game of football," Jones said. "It's just a three-level game and when we click on all cylinders, we can be pretty good."
New England’s offense clicked to the tune of 452 total yards all while not turning the ball over once. In typical Bill Belichick fashion, the Patriots’ defense dominated by holding the Cleveland offense to just 217 total yards and knocking Baker Mayfield out of the game due to a knee injury. Backup quarterback Case Keenum had only 81 yards on 8 of 12 passing, while D’Ernest Johnson finished with 99 yards on 19 carries in place of the injured Nick Chubb.
While the Patriots made Sunday a living hell last week, that’s exactly what the Falcons felt against the Dallas Cowboys, losing 43-3 in AT&T Stadium.
The Falcons, who had made a run to make things interesting in the NFC South over the past few weeks, was demolished by Dallas. Matt Ryan was held to 117 yards and picked off twice, while Atlanta as a whole had 214 total yards and just a first-quarter field goal.
Wayne Gallman had 55 yards on 15 carries, and Kyle Pitts led the way with four receptions for 60 yards. Those four receptions all came within the first quarter and a half; after that, the Cowboys shut down Atlanta in dominant fashion.
"I think you understand it just counts once," Ryan said. "As ugly as it is, we get 17 of these opportunities. I think we're better than we played today. We just need to play up to the standard that we're capable of doing."
And if things couldn’t get any worse for the Falcons, leading playmaker Cordarrelle Patterson could miss Thursday’s game with an ankle injury. The former Minnesota Vikings return star has proven to be a weapon in the passing and running games. If he can’t go, with the Falcons already down Calvin Ridley due to personal reasons, it’s going to be a problem of a week for Atlanta.
Prediction
Even though most of the personnel has changed, there’s no change in the mentality of a Belichick-coached team. They understand the opportunity now in front of them with the door wide open in the division and playoff race. The Falcons are reeling and not have gone back to playing horrible ball on both sides. The Patriots, led by J.C. Jackson on defense, will make life hell for the Falcons. Patriots by 14
Betting trends
The Patriots are 16-16 ATS the past three seasons as a favorite and 22-11 straight up.
The Patriots are 4-1 ATS this season after playing a game at home.
The Falcons are 0-3 ATS at home this season.
The Falcons are 2-0 ATS against the AFC East this season.
Players to watch
Patriots: While Rhamondre Stevenson had the best game of his young career, Damien Harris continues to have a great year in the backfield. He’ll be looking for his sixth straight game with a rushing touchdown.
Falcons: Defensive tackle Grady Jarrett tied the Super Bowl record with three sacks against the Patriots a few years ago. Look for him to try and make an impact on defense.
Statistical leaders
Patriots:
Passing: Mac Jones -- 2,333 yards, 13 TD, 7 INT
Rushing: Damien Harris -- 547 yards, 7 TD
Receiving: Jakobi Meyers -- 483 yards, 1 TD
Defense: Matt Judon -- 9.5 sacks
Falcons:
Passing: Matt Ryan -- 2,274 yards, 15 TD, 8 INT
Rushing: Cordarrelle Patterson -- 303 yards, 2 TD
Receiving: Kyle Pitts -- 606 yards, 1 TD
Defense: Jaylinn Hawkins -- 2 INT
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
