by Rod Pearson
Thursday, Nov 07, 2024
Game Time: 8:00 pm ET, Saturday, November 9, 2024
Venue: Albertsons Stadium, Boise, ID
Where to Watch: FOX
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Nevada +24, Boise State -24; Over/Under: 60.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Nevada +24, Boise State -24; Over/Under: 60.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Nevada +24.5, Boise State -24.5; Over/Under: 60.5 points
Season Record
Nevada Wolf Pack: 3-7 (0-4) (11th place, MWC)
Boise State Broncos: 7-1 (4-0) (1st place, MWC)
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Recent Form
Nevada Wolf Pack: lost their last game at home against the Colorado State Rams 38-21.
Boise State Broncos: won their last game at home against the San Diego State Aztecs 56-24.
Nevada Wolf Pack vs Boise State Broncos Preview and Analysis
Nevada is entering this game with a 3-7 record overall and they have a 0-4 record in their conference games too. They are 2-4 in their home games, 1-3 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against Colorado State 38-21. Brendon Lewis was the starting QB and he completed 20/28 passes for 252 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. Brendon Lewis led the team in rushing yards with 109 and 2 TDs. Cortez Braham Jr. led the receivers with 141 receiving yards on 9 receptions. Kitan Crawford led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle while no one on the defense recorded a sack for them. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
Boise State is entering this game with a 7-1 record overall and they have a 4-0 record in their conference games too. They are 4-0 in their home games, 3-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against San Diego State 56-24. Maddux Madsen was the starting QB and he completed 24/32 passes for 307 passing yards, 4 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Ashton Jeanty led the team in rushing yards with 149 and 2 TDs. LaTrell Caples led the receivers with 90 receiving yards on 6 receptions and 3 TDs. Alexander Teubner led the defense in that game with 4 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Jayden Virgin led the defense in sacks with 1.5. Alexander Teubner and A'Marion McCoy each came away with 1 interception for them in that one.
Nevada vs Boise State Prediction
The current betting odds have Boise State listed as a 24 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Boise State has looked really good in their games this season with their 7-1 record overall and their 4-0 conference record which has them leading the Mountain West. They have a real chance to make the CFP as the highest ranked group of 5 team and and they are coming off another win which they rolled their opponent in. Meanwhile, Nevada has looked terrible in their games this season with their 3-7 record overall and their 0-4 conference record which has them right near the bottom of the MWC. They are 1-3 in their road games too and coming off a bad loss at home to Colorado State. Boise State is a real playoff contender this season and they also have one of the best running backs in the country who has a chance to win the Heisman Trophy. Boise State isn't going to stop rolling teams with their offense that puts up a ton of points since they still need to prove themselves as the best group of 5 team, and they are getting some extra time to prepare with their game being on Friday last week. Nevada doesn't have the defense to slow down this Boise State offense and as bad as Boise State has been on defense in some of their games, they will get the stops they need against this offense. The best way to place a bet here is on Boise State to cover the spread in this game.
Nevada Boise State Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, November 9, 2024 (8:00 pm ET start time) is Boise State 56 Nevada 21.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Nevada Wolf Pack: 5-10 ATS off a loss against a conference rival. 7-12 ATS against conference opponents. 9-17 1H ATS as an underdog. 9-5 OVER off a loss against a conference rival. 8-3 OVER when playing against a team with a winning record. 5-1 OVER versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 yards/play or more.
Boise State Broncos: 12-3 ATS in home lined games. 14-5 ATS against conference opponents. 6-3 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record. 23-13 OVER in all lined games. 12-4 OVER as a home favorite. 9-3 OVER when the total is between 56.5 and 63.
Key Injuries
Nevada Wolf Pack: J. O'Rourke (TE) Questionable - Undisclosed. P. Garwo (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. S. Red (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Henry (TE) Questionable - Foot.
Boise State Broncos: J. Dubar (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. M. Reed (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. R. Carreon (OL) Questionable - Undisclosed. M. Randolph (OL) Questionable - Undisclosed. C. Marshall (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. S. Gaines (RB) Questionable - Knee. K. Anderson (TE) Out - Knee.
Notable Quotes
"I know Wolf Pack faithful and everybody who has skin in the game wants it (a winning Pack program) to happen overnight. But this didn't fall apart overnight and it's not going to be rebuilt overnight." - Jeff Choate on rebuilding the program at Nevada.
“We’re getting the kitchen sink thrown at us in terms of stopping the run. But the throws Maddux made in the box was what we needed.” - Spencer Danielson after his team’s win against SDSU in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Nevada Wolf Pack
WR Smith, Jaden
WR Braham Jr., Cortez
WR Bellon, Marcus
TE Henry, Jace
QB Lewis, Brendon
RB Garwo III, Patrick
Boise State Broncos
WR Strachan, Prince
WR Camper, Cameron
WR Caples, Latrell
TE Lauter, Matt
QB Madsen, Maddux
RB Jeanty, Ashton
FB Crowe, Tyler
Statistical Leaders
Nevada Wolf Pack
Passing: B. Lewis (1542)
Rushing: S. Red (676)
Receiving: J. Smith (630)
Touchdowns: S. Red (8)
Boise State Broncos
Passing: M. Madsen (1789)
Rushing: A. Jeanty (1525)
Receiving: C. Camper (527)
Touchdowns: A. Jeanty (21)
Coaches:
Nevada Wolf Pack: Jeff Choate (1st season)
Boise State Broncos: Spencer Danielson (2nd season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
