by Chuck Sommers
Friday, Nov 19, 2021
Game time: 3:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Camp Randall Stadium, Madison, WI
Where to watch: ABC
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Wisconsin -9
BetMGM: Wisconsin -8.5
Caesars: Wisconsin -9
Season record
Nebraska: 3-7 (1-6 Big Ten)
Wisconsin: 7-3 (5-2 Big Ten)
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Nebraska - Wisconsin preview and analysis
Last week
Nebraska: Off (lost 26-17 vs. No. 4 Ohio State on Nov. 6)
Wisconsin: won 35-7 vs. Northwestern
When in doubt, get back to what got you to success in the first place.
In the case of the Wisconsin Badgers it was running the ball and strong defense.
It’s essentially getting back to basics that has pushed Wisconsin to a six-game winning streak and atop the Big Ten West. The Badgers can clinch a spot in the Big Ten title game with a win (and some help) over the Nebraska Cornhuskers on Saturday in Camp Randall.
It’s Senior Day in Madison and I bet if you asked those seniors two months ago how they’d feel about playing in a conference championship game, they’d laugh in your face. Since that 1-3 start highlighted by a 21-point loss to the Michigan Wolverines, the Badgers have allowed a grand total of 44 points during their winning streak while scoring over 20 themselves in every game.
Wisconsin is coming off a 35-7 victory against the Northwestern Wildcats. Running back Braelon Allen ran for 173 yards and three touchdowns, while quarterback Graham Mertz had a solid 216 yards and two touchdowns. Again, what wonders can be made when the quarterback of a program -- not historically known for its quarterbacks -- can do when he doesn’t do that much.
Also, how about Allen, who is 17 years old and running over Big Ten defenses to this degree? No idea that he was 17 until putting this together. That’s insane.
The Badgers have won seven straight against Nebraska and all six since the Freedom Trophy was created in 2014. That doesn’t bode well for Nebraska seeing how when you look back over this winning streak, Wisconsin is averaging 269.7 rushing yards per game. Allen has gone over the century mark in those games and has eight touchdowns in that span.
Again, the kid is 17. It’s insane.
Nebraska might be the most competitive 3-win team in the country. Despite losing four straight coming into this weekend’s matchup, the Huskers lost by one score in three of those matchups and came within a quarter away from upsetting the Ohio State Buckeyes at home on Nov. 6.
The Huskers held Ohio State to just 90 total yards rushing but couldn’t make those extra plays to finish off the victory. Quarterback Adrian Martinez threw for 248 yards and a touchdown as his renaissance to becoming a good quarterback continued, but was outdueled by Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud with 405 yards and two touchdowns.
Nebraska has lost by a combined 42 points in its seven losses. If anything, this run may have given Scott Frost one more year to right the ship.
Prediction
Conventional wisdom would dictate that Nebraska keeps this thing close because its defense can keep Wisconsin at bay for most of that game. But the way the Badgers are running the ball and given that it’s at home, I tend to think more that Wisconsin will win this and do so comfortably. Wisconsin by 17
Betting trends
Nebraska is 3-1 ATS as an underdog this season.
Nebrasia is 2-0 ATS this season off consecutive unders.
Wisconsin is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 when the total is between 42.5 and 49.
Wisconsin is 11-11 ATS the past three seasons off a conference game.
Statistical leaders
Nebraska:
Passing: Adrian Martinez -- 2,512 yards, 13 TD, 8 INT
Rushing: Adrian Martinez -- 502 yards, 12 TD
Receiving: Samori Toure -- 718 yards, 4 TD
Wisconsin:
Passing: Graham Mertz -- 1,505 yards, 8 TD, 9 INT
Rushing: Braelon Allen -- 834 yards, 9 TD
Receiving: Danny Davis III -- 418 yards, 2 TD
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
