NCAAB Top 25: Overrated and Underrated

After skipping this exercise in the month of January, I’m back with another look at the current Top 25 in College Basketball. This will probably be the final time I do this prior to the start of the Conference Tournaments.

For those who may have missed previous editions, this is pretty simple. Here are my views on which College Basketball teams are rated too high, too low, or maybe shouldn’t be rated at all. There is also a team that I feel should be in the Top 25, but failed to make the latest poll. 

Providence (#11 AP/#10 Coaches) - I’ve talked about this group before. Obviously, at 22-3 straight up and leading the Big East, the Friars do deserve to be ranked. But it’s worth pointing out that KenPom has them at #46, which is one spot below where they are in my own personal power ratings. The Friars have the top luck rating at KenPom and are an unfathomable 10-1 SU in games decided by five points or less. In their last game, they came back from 19 down (in the second half!) to defeat Butler in overtime. It was Providence’s second OT win in the last three games and five of their last six wins have been by four points or less. I have them as only the SIXTH best team in the Big East! Be willing to consider an early exit from the Big East Tournament for this lucky group and I will certainly be looking to fade them in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.

Wisconsin (#13 AP/#12 Coaches) - Same thing as Providence here. The Badgers have been extremely lucky in close games this season as they are 12-1 SU in games decided by six points or less. They have the #7 luck rating at KenPom, who has them at #25 overall. So it’s not quite the discrepancy that exists with Providence. My own ratings are a little lower on Wisconsin, putting them at #30 and calling them just the SEVENTH best team in the Big 10. Note they were recently underdogs in a win at Indiana, who is not one of the six I have ahead. Again, look to fade when appropriate.

USC (#16 AP/#16 Coaches) - KenPom has the Trojans at #28 while I’ve got them at #25. They just pulled off a close one at home vs. Washington State on Sunday night, winning in the final second, 62-60. Thankfully, for me, Wazzu was still a winner plus the points. USC is now 7-1 SU in games decided by five points or less, so there’s a running theme in this “ranked too high” category. Eventually, these teams’ “luck” WILL run out.

Houston (#14 AP/#15 Coaches) - I had the Cougars in this spot back in December. They are a Top 7 team according to both KenPom and my own power ratings. ESPN’s BPI ratings have them at #3. I’d be stunned if the Cougars, who were a Final Four team last year, didn’t steamroll through their conference tournament (American) and earn a high seed.

Tennessee (#17 AP/#17 Coaches) - This isn’t too bad, but I thought it was harsh for the coaches to drop the Vols four spots in their latest poll. This is a Top 12 team in my eyes and KenPom’s. They just beat Kentucky last week (only to then lose at Arkansas). The Vols are #4 in the country in defensive efficiency.

Iowa (#25 AP/NR Coaches) - The Hawkeyes are top five in offensive efficiency and don’t turn the ball over very often. I think they’re a Top 16 team in the country and the third best team in the Big 10 (not that far off from Purdue and Illinois). KenPom agrees! It was rather shocking that they were 4-6 SU to start conference play. Expect a strong finish.

LSU - The Tigers have fallen out of both polls, but are considered top 18 by both KenPom and my ratings. There are six SEC teams that I feel belong amongst the Top 20 in the country (it’s a very strong league this year) and this is one of them. LSU is #3 in the country in defensive efficiency, which will serve them well come March.