NCAA Tournament Round 2 Data (1991 to 2021)

by Al McMordie

With the 2nd Round of the NCAA Tournament upon us, let's take a look at how the previous tournaments have gone -- from a point spread perspective.

There have been 30 NCAA Tournaments since 1991 (the 2020 event was cancelled due to COVID-19).  

Here are how the individual seeds have fared:

#1 seeds:  102-17 SU, 60-59 ATS
#2 seeds:  75-36 SU, 55-54-2 ATS
#3 seeds:  67-37 SU, 55-47-2 ATS
#4 seeds:  60-34 SU, 48-46 ATS
#5 seeds:  37-38 SU, 35-39-1 ATS
#6 seeds:  34-42 SU, 38-36-2 ATS
#7 seeds:  22-47 SU, 30-38-1 ATS
#8 seeds:  11-49 SU, 34-26 ATS
#9 seeds:  7-53 SU, 25-35 ATS
#10 seeds:  21-30 SU, 30-20-1 ATS
#11 seeds:  18-26 SU, 22-22 ATS
#12 seeds:  18-27 SU, 29-16 ATS
#13 seeds:  5-21 SU, 7-18-1 ATS
#14 seeds:  1-15 SU, 3-13 ATS
#15 seeds:  2-7 SU, 3-6 ATS
#16 seeds:  0-1 SU, 1-0 ATS

Four of the 480 games were Pk'em.  Of the remaining 476 games, favorites have had the historical edge, with a 252-219-5 ATS record.  As a point of comparison, the 1st round has largely been split down the middle, with the favorites owning a 478-474-17 ATS record.

Some other point spread categories to note:

Teams off an ATS loss (vs. foes not off an ATS loss):  108-79-1 ATS
Teams off back to back SU/ATS wins (vs. foes not off back to back SU/ATS wins):  56-89-3 ATS
Teams off back to back ATS losses (vs. foes not off back to back ATS losses):  76-51-1 ATS
Teams off back to back ATS wins (vs. foes not off back to back ATS wins):  68-95-3 ATS
Teams off three SU/ATS wins (vs. foes not off three SU/ATS wins:  41-70-3 ATS
Teams off three ATS wins (vs. foes not off three ATS wins):  55-79-3 ATS
Teams off three ATS losses (vs. foes not off three ATS losses):  28-18-1 ATS
Teams playing with revenge:  26-23-1 ATS
Teams off double-digit wins (vs. foes not off double-digit wins):  135-136-4 ATS
Teams that covered their previous game by 10+ points (vs. foes that didn't cover by 10+ points):  88-114-2 ATS

Favorites priced from -1 to -3.5 points:  65-58-3 ATS
Favorites priced from -4 to -6.5 points:  84-68-1 ATS
Favorites priced from -7 to -9.5 points:  58-53-1 ATS
Favorites priced from -10 to -12.5 points:  27-25 ATS
Favorites of -13 (or more) points:  18-14 ATS

Good luck, as always...
Al McMordie




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