by Chuck Sommers
Tuesday, Sep 07, 2021
Game time: 7 p.m. ET, Sept. 11, 2021
Venue: Riccardo Silva Stadium, Miami, FL
Where to watch: ESPN+
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: FIU -1; O/U 55; FIU -120, Texas State +100
BetMGM: FIU -1; FIU -115, Texas State +105
Caesars: FIU -1; O/U 55.5; FIU -120, Texas State +100
Season record
Texas State: 0-1
Florida International: 1-0
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Texas State - Florida International preview and analysis
Recent form
Texas State: lost 29-20 vs. Baylor on Sept. 4
FIU: won 48-10 vs. Long Island on Sept. 4
There aren’t many games this week where you can flip a coin and predict the right winner.
This is one of them with the Texas State Bobcats heading to Miami to face the Florida International Panthers in the first ever meeting between the schools.
The Bobcats are coming off a surprisingly hard-fought 29-20 loss to the Baylor Bears at home in Week 1. Although it might not be the same Baylor group that went to the Sugar Bowl two season ago, to hold the Bears to 148 passing yards is a major accomplishment.
Texas State, out of the Sun Belt Conference, had a 10-7 lead in the second quarter but never saw it again once Baylor’s defense took over the game. TSU quarterback Brady McBride was picked off three times, one of them returned for a touchdown by JT Woods.
In the grand scheme of things, it was Texas State’s 14th loss in 16 games but it was one of its better non-conference showings in a long time, and a good start to Year 3 under head coach Jake Spavital.
FIU took care of business Saturday against FCS Long Island in a resounding way, putting up 594 total yards in a 48-10 victory to end its seven-game losing streak dating back to 2019. Max Bortenschlager threw for 266 yards and two touchdowns, but also had an interception, which always makes you wonder how in these instances.
It’s likely that coach Butch Davis doesn’t care for such things, at least for now, but welcoming a tough Texas State team into the fray is dangerous. Even though the numbers weren’t great, the fact Texas State even played Baylor that tough speaks volumes.
Prediction
We wouldn’t be shocked if this moves to a Pick ‘Em at some point throughout the week. While FIU’s offense looked great, we have to remember FCS Long Island went winless not too long ago. Good on FIU getting in the win column, but this has the makings of Texas State going on the road and getting a victory. If that pass defense travels, the Bobcats could be in for a fun year. We like Texas State in a one-score game.
Betting trends
FIU is 6-11 the last 17 as a home favorite.
Texas State is 4-7 under Spavital as an away underdog.
Statistical leaders
Texas State:
Passing: Brady McBride -- 156 yards, 1 TD, 3 INT
Rushing: Jahmyl Jeter -- 45 yards, 1 TD
Receiving: Marcell Barbee -- 56 yards, 1 TD
Defense: Troy Lefeged Jr. -- 10 tackles
FIU:
Passing: Max Bortenschlager -- 266 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT
Rushing: D’Vonte Price -- 165 yards, 3 TD
Receiving: Bryce Singleton -- 149 yards, 1 TD
Defense: Richard Dames -- 8 tackles
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
