by Chuck Sommers
Tuesday, Aug 31, 2021
Game time: 5 p.m. ET; Sept. 4, 2021
Venue: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, CA
Where to watch: PAC-12 Network
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: USC -14; O/U 59.5; Moneyline: USC -630, San Jose State +450
BetMGM: USC -14; O/U 59.5; ML: USC -625, San Jose State +450
Caesars: USC -14; O/U 59.5; ML: USC -700, San Jose State +475
FanDuel: USC -14.5; O/U 59.5; ML: USC -750, San Jose State +490
Season record
San Jose State: 1-0 (last game, won 45-14 vs. Southern Utah)
USC: 0-0 (5-1 in 2020, lost Pac-12 championship to Oregon)
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San Jose State - USC preview and analysis
If not now, when for the USC Trojans?
When is it the time for the Trojans to return to consistent national prominence? When do they see their one good year and raise it another?
The No. 15-ranked Trojans are in that weird coasting mode where they could be national championship contenders this year or could just be a run-of-the-mill team in the Pac-12.
Such questions will need to be answered as we go, but USC’s quest back to the top of the mountain begins Saturday when they welcome the San Jose State Spartans at the Coliseum in Los Angeles.
This will be the first game in front of a home crowd for USC since the season finale in 2019 against rival UCLA. It’s when junior quarterback Kedon Slovis started showing his flashes of brilliance by setting a program record of 515 yards.
All eyes will be on Clay Helton entering his sixth season as the man to lead the Trojans, and his seat could be on a cozy warm with the itch to turn up the heat. Helton hasn’t been horrible since taking over full-time in 2016, but two bowl losses since winning the Rose Bowl in 2016, as well as a Pac-12 championship game loss in the shortened season in 2020 has put an uneasiness level in Southern California heading into this season, with a big question mark on USC’s Pac-12 title chances.
The Trojans played only six games last season, winning the first five to set up a the Pac-12 title game showdown against the Oregon Ducks, which they lost 31-24. But the offense did take some steps in the right direction behind Slovis. USC averaged 33.3 points per game last season, while USC’s defense held opponents to 26 per game (good for 47th in the country). In any previous season, that’d be enough to be top-notch.
Slovis will have leading receiver, 6-foot-5 playmaker Drake London back as a central component after he caught 33 passes for 502 yards and three touchdowns. The Trojans hope he can make up for the lack of touchdowns now that Amon-Ra St. Brown (who led the Trojans with seven a year ago) is now with the Detroit Lions. With former Texas Tech star quarterback Graham Harrell now the offensive coordinator, it may not matter the personnel.
Last year’s leading tackler Talanoa Hufanga, who also led USC with three interceptions, is still in California but playing more north with the San Francisco 49ers. Defensive lineman Nick Figueroa, who had 3.5 sacks in six games, returns to USC to anchor that defensive line.
There’s still talent on that defense with defensive coordinator Todd Orlando now getting his first full season in the role and having a talented defensive line duo of Nick Figueroa and Tuli Tuipulotu, as well as edge rusher Drake Jackson.
USC’s non-conference slate isn’t jampacked early. After San Jose State will be a home date with the Stanford Cardinal on Sept. 11. The other non-conference dates are at No. 9 Notre Dame (Oct. 23) and home against BYU (Nov. 27). That’s some adversity on the schedule.
The Trojans aren’t just welcoming a random San Jose State team to the fold. In what was perhaps the greatest definition of taking advantage of the schedule in front of you, the Spartans ran the table in the regular season to win their first Mountain West championship over Boise State to place as high as No. 19 in the AP Poll. It was their highest rank ever in the polls, and their first bowl appearance since winning the Cure Bowl in 2015 in San Jose State coach Brent Brennan’s fifth season.
SJSU lost to Ball State in the Arizona Bowl, but the Spartans are bringing back star and veteran quarterback Nick Starkel for another run. Starkel, who threw for 17 touchdowns last season, is already off to a rocking pace in 2021. The senior quarterback threw for 394 yards and four touchdowns in San Jose State’s season opener against the Southern Utah Thunderbirds last Saturday, a 45-14 win.
Four different receivers caught a touchdown pass from Starkel (14.6 yards per pass attempt) in the blowout of Southern Utah, including Sam Olson on a 70-yard score. Last year’s leading rusher Tyler Nevens chipped in with 91 yards and a touchdown, and the defense held Southern Utah quarterback Justin Miller to 117 yards on 29 attempts.
The Spartans have a road-heavy schedule to start the season. After their trip to USC, San Jose State begins conference play Sept. 18 at Hawaii, and then a road contest at Western Michigan. After a home meeting with New Mexico State, the Spartans will visit the Colorado State Rams on Oct. 9. That kind of schedule can be tamed with an aggressive pass rush, which the Spartans have, and it will be an immediate test.
Prediction
I don’t blame anyone for jumping on the San Jose State hype train. It’s exciting to see this program finally get some success and playing some top-tier teams, with the mindset that they could do well. USC should win this outright, but Spartans with the points is not a bad play, either. USC wins 31-21.
Betting trends
USC has won the last four meetings against San Jose State, all coming at the Coliseum.
San Jose State is 13-6 against the spread in its last 19 games when an underdog, and 13-8 straight up.
USC is 4-3 as a home favorite the last three seasons.
Players to watch
San Jose State: Watch for the Spartans to rely more on the ground game on the road. Tyler Nevens had only 12 carries last week. Expect him to get more and for San Jose State to work its leading rusher a lot.
USC: How will Kedon Slovis handle a swarming but risky San Jose State defense? The interceptions were projected to go up a tad in 2020. Can he keep the mistakes low and get the ball to his outstanding wide receiving corps? Will it just be a small sophomore slump?
Statistical leaders
San Jose State:
Passing: Nick Starkel -- 394 yards, 4 TD, 1 INT
Rushing: Tyler Nevens -- 91 yards, 1 TD
Receiving: Charles Ross -- 3 receptions, 77 yards, 1 TD
Defense: Kyle Harmon -- 9 tackles
USC (2020):
Passing: Kedon Slovis -- 1,921 yards, 17 TD, 7 INT
Rushing: Vavae Malepeai -- 238 yards, 3 TD
Receiving: Drake London -- 502 yards, 3 TD
Defense: Talanoa Hufanga -- 62 tackles, 3 sacks
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
