NCAA Football: Missouri Tigers vs Boston College Eagles Prediction, Odds and Preview - 09/25/2021
Game Time: noon, ET, Saturday, September 25th, 2021
Venue: Alumni Stadium, Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts
Where to Watch: ESPN 2
Opening NCAAF Odds at USA Sportsbooks
BetMGM: Spread: Missouri -2.5 O/U: 58.5 points
Caesars: Spread: Missouri -2.5, O/U: 59 points
DraftKings: Spread: Missouri -2.5, O/U: 58.5 points
Missouri: 2-1 (SEC)
Boston College: 3-0 (ACC)
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Missouri vs Boston College Preview and Analysis
Missouri opened their season with a nice and easy warmup against the Southeast Missouri State Redhawks. They won in a landslide 50-0. Then they rolled into the Central Michigan Chippewas for game 2. A slightly better matchup, but Missouri took it 34-24. Then they had to play for real… They got smacked by Kentucky. They lost game 3, 35-28. It was a double slide, as the competition improved over three games…Missouri struggled. Until finally they lost.
Boston College also started with a cake-walk. The Eagles won game 1 against Colgate 51-0. A quick visit to UMass in game 2 got them another win, 45-28. Game 3 was against Temple , not a usual college football powerhouse, and they won again 28-3. They are smiling at 3-0. A 3-0 that hasn’t been tested against quality competition. BC has taken it EZ. They also need this win because Clemson is coming the week after this game. They will lose to Clemson.
The Tigers have artificially inflated stats on offense, in the running game, on special teams, the offensive line, and the pass rush. The first game against Southeast Missouri State was a silly bit of beating up on a practice squad. Missouri is averaging 40.3 points per game, 10 less than the SMS goldmine of stats. Missouri is netting 513.7 yards per game. QB Connor Bazelak is 76-113, 9 touchdowns and 1 interception. The rushing is almost all RB Tyler Badie, who is averaging 7.2 yards per carry. The receivers are 8 to 9 guys deep. Outside of Tyler Badie who leads them all… Chance Luper has 8 catches for 122 yards, D’ionte Smith has 3 catches for 115 yards... 38.3 yards per catch!
BC also has inflated stats because of their first game. They are scoring 41.3 points per game. They are getting 407 yards per game. They played a lot of kids who would be better suited to tutoring trigonometry than getting sacks. As the home team, the BC offense will need to prove these numbers are real early or Missouri will run all over them.
Missouri is ranked 123rd on defense. They had a shut-out. They struggled against a creampuff, and they lost to kentucky.
BC is ranked 20th in the nation in defense. Yes, they had some easy games but they played hard-nosed D…. and those easy games weren’t Missouri easy.
Tigers vs Eagles Prediction
Our prediction for Saturday, September 25th is... Missouri 28 - BC 20
Missouri hasn’t proved anything so far except they can’t stop low-level offenses. They will score though.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Boston College has covered once in two games with a spread this year
Missouri’s games have gone over the point total twice this season
Saturday's total is 22.6 points lower than the two team's combined 81.6 points per game average
The average total in Tigers games this season is 58.7, 0.3 points fewer than Saturday's over/under of 59
Missouri: Zxaequan Reeves, Kyran Montgomery, and Jonathan Jones have all been ruled out for the season with injury.
BC: QB Jurkovec, Out for season
Players to Watch
Missouri: Tyler Badie is the only game to watch. He leads the team in rushing and receiving. He will have the ball all over the field. The other guys will and should defer to him.
BC: QB Phil Jurkovec. Whenever I watch Boston College I like to periodically yell “you’re no Flutie!!” at the screen. Regardless of what happens, this makes any BC game fun.
“Two roads diverged in a wood” - Robert Frost
Missouri: QB Connor Bazelak, RB Tyler Badie, WR Tauskie Dove, WR Keke Chism, WR Chance Luper, TE Daniel Parker Jr
BC: QB Dennis Grosel, RB Pat Garwo, WR CJ Lewis, WR Zay Flowers, WR Jaleen Gill, TE Joey Luchetti
Passing: Connor Bazelek 897 yards
Rushing: Tyler Badie 345 yards
Receiving: Tyler Badie 142 yards…. Yup he’s tops in both categories. Look out NFL.
Tackles: Blaze Aldredge 25
Interceptions: Jaylon Collins 2
Passing: Phil Jurkovec 325
Rushing: Pat Garwo 160 yards
Receiving: Zay Flowers
Missouri: Eliah Drinkwitz
BC: Jeff Hafley
Showers. 50% chance of precipitation all day. Soggy, wet… clam chowder weather.