Game Time: 4:00 pm ET, Saturday, September 18th, 2021 

Venue: Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium, Memphis, TN

Where to Watch: ESPN2

DraftKings:  Spread:  Miss State -3.5:  O/U: 64.5

BetMGM:  Spread:  Miss State -3.5:  O/U:  64

Caesars:  Spread: Miss State -3.5:  O/U: 64

MS State: 2-0 (SEC)

Memphis: 2-0 (AAC)

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Mississippi State won their first game by 1 point, a 35 -34 squeaker against Louisiana Tech.  It involved a 70 yard kick return from Lideatrick Griffin that started a 20 point comeback. The Bulldogs handled game 2 readily, a 24-10 decisive win over NC State. The Memphis game is a definite must win.  After this the Bulldogs will face LSU, Texas A&M, and Alabama all in a row. They need to face that murderers row undefeated (3-0) if they want to come out the other side still enjoying the season. If there is one thing I know about head coach Mike Leach's squad…  they will play hard or they’ll have to go stand in the shed.

The Memphis Tigers opened with a win over Nicholls State 42-17, it was a light stretch before the gruelling workout.  Game two was that workout.  Memphis faced Arkansas State and the touchdowns were apparently contagious.  When the dust cleared Memphis had won by a final score of 55-50. The Over hit big time!  It answered the question of what happens when both defenses have rough games and face an explosive offense… a combined 105 points happen. Memphis goes into the next game as a slight home underdog.  

Mississippi State is scoring 29.5 points per game, 375.5 YPG, but only 43.5 rushing yards per game.  They are focused on receptions, on racking up a giant total offense production from kickoff to final whistle. Mike Leach is and has always been obsessed with re-writing the school's record book wherever he coaches and trying to lead the FBS in offense.  Mike is not an aloof genius though, he recently called the sophomore tailback Dillon Johnson “bro”.  

Junior Grant Gunnell got injured. He was the quarterback.  To replace Grant they installed true freshman quarterback Seth Henigan and discovered outstanding play with lots of promise for repeat performances. Memphis averages 49.5 points per game, 633.5 yards per game

Both Mississippi State and Memphis have defensive units.  They go on the field after every time the offense scores, just like in regular football.  In Mississippi State’s case, the defensive unit is barely mentioned in game recaps and articles.    Of the two teams Mississippi State actually held an opponent to just 10 points.  The leading tackler for Mississippi State is Fred Peters he has 16 tackles.  The sack leader is Randy Charlton he has 1 sack, .. in fact the team has 5 sacks overall.. So a lot of other guys have ½ sacks attributed to them. The defense is not the focus of Mississippi State even though they have put some quality defensive players into the NFL….. 

With Memphis the defense has worked so far.  They are prone to offensive shootouts also but they have stopped the first two teams  The big tackler for the Tigers is Thomas Pickens, he wears the coveted “0” on his jersey, he has 9 tackles.  He is helped along by Quindell Johnson 7 tackles, Jacobi Francis 6 tackles, Greg Rubin 6 tackles.  The lone sack was by Jaylon Allen, 1 sack.   We know what to expect from this game.  The defenses will try and try and end up giving up about 400 yards on each side.  The question may be who scored last…. Or who gets caught in blown coverage last? Memphis gave up 50 points in a win!... That's the type of shootout we might get here from either side.

Our prediction for Saturday, September 18th is…  Memphis 42 - Miss State 36

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The Bulldogs average 114 yards per game fewer than the Tigers.

The Bulldogs not only covered the spread they won outright the last time they were underdogs.

Memphis is 0-2 ATS but 2-0 outright.

The Tigers average 633.5 yards per game, the Bulldogs give up only 352 yards per game… only one can happen.

Memphis: Grant Gunnell

Miss State:  N/A

Miss State: Dillon Johnson.  The backup RB is ready for a breakout game and Mike Leach’s game plan has been holding him back. The 6-foot 215-pound RB recently went through a “confidence thing” according to the Clarion-Ledger.  

Memphis: Quarterback Seth Henigan.  The 18-year-old Henigan, pride of Denton, Texas, logged the eighth-highest single-game yardage total in Tigers history.  22-33, 417 yards, and five touchdowns.  He took over when Grant Gunnell suffered a lower-body injury.  He won’t be giving the job back… unless he transfers to a better school.

“You go out and do the best you can and hope it works. You just try to improve."

- Mike Leach

“I think it’s a win-win for everybody. These players have the chance to benefit from their name, image and likeness,” -Memphis coach Ryan Silverfield.

Miss State:  QB Will Rogers, RB Jo’quavious Marks, WR Malik Heath, WR Makai Polk, WR Jamire Calvin, WR Austin Williams, LT Charles Cross, LG Kameron Jones, C LaQuinston Sharp, RG Kwatrivious Johnson, RT Scott Lashley

Memphis:  QB Seth Henigan, RB Brandon Thomas, TB Cameron Fleming, TE Sean Dykes, WR Calvin Austin III, WR Gabriel Rogers, WR Javon Ivory, LT Jonah Gambrill, LG Isaac Ellis, C Jacob Likes, RG Dylan Parham, RT Matt Dale

Memphis

Passing:  Seth Henigan  682

Rushing:  Brandon Thomas  338

Receiving:  Calvin Austin III  286

Tackles:  Quindell Johnson  16

Interceptions:  Sylvonta Oliver 1

Mississippi State:

Passing: Will Rogers 664

Rushing:  Jo’quavious  Marks  82

Receiving:  Jaden Walley  108

Tackles:  Fred Peters  15

Interceptions:  Jalen Green  1

Mississippi State: Mike Leach - the offense whisperer

Memphis:  second-year head coach Ryan Silverfield

Scattered thunderstorms.  High of 85*.  Precipitation 60%, Humidity 78%.  If you are in Memphis visit Graceland and while you're there,.. ask the tour guide “Who’s Elvis?”.  They don’t find that funny at all.