NCAA Football: LSU Tigers vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Prediction, Odds and Preview - 09/25/2021

by James Q


NCAA Football: LSU Tigers vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Prediction, Odds and Preview - 09/25/2021


Game Time: Noon ET, Saturday, September 25th, 2021 
Venue: Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, Mississippi
Where to Watch: ESPN

Opening NCAAF Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Spread: LSU -2.5:  O/U: 57
BetMGM:  Spread:  LSU -2.5:  O/U:  57
Caesars:  Spread: LSU -2.5:  O/U: 57

Season Record

LSU:  2-1 (SEC)
Miss ST: 2-1 (SEC)

An SEC matchup of teams on the brink. 

 LSU opened their college football season with a loss to underdog UCLA 38-27.  They followed that game with a win against total creampuff McNeese State, where they failed to cover the enormous 39 point spread.  Last week they got it right and beat the, also a total creampuff,  Central Michigan Chippewas.  They covered the spread and won the game in that one.  The end result is this 2-1 LSU team doesn’t look great this year.  The Baton Rouge fans at Tiger Stadium will have to hold their breath over the next three games (Auburn is coming) in hopes the Tigers don’t end up 3-3 with their entire season sunk before it gets going.

Mississippi State opened their season with an unlikely close game to the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs.  In the battle of the Bulldogs, Mississippi State was favored by 20.5 points.  The final score of 35-34 gave MS the win, but failed to cover the spread by 19.5 points.  They went on to game 2 against the North Carolina State Wolfpack where they won decisively 24-10.  They covered the spread and got the win.  Then they stumbled hard, In game 3 the Memphis Tigers played host to the favored Mississippi State and handed them their first loss, which was also a loss against the spread.  Mississippi fell for the oldest trick in the book.  They came in with a high powered offense, and failed to realize they were up against a higher powered offense (seriously, check out the Memphis quarterback… the Pride of Ryan high school from Denton Texas… a blazing freshman already displaying NFL Draft potential with pro-level skills.) 



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LSU vs Mississippi State Preview and Analysis

 

Offensive Analysis 
Myles Brennan is the quarterback who in 2020 took over for Joe Burrow at LSU when Joe moved on to the NFL.  Those were big shoes to fill.  This year the quarterback is Max Johnson… who is taking over for an injured Myles Brennan… he’ll get less comparisons.  He also has a loaded roster at his disposal, LSU always does.  They don’t get Alabama quality recruits, but aren’t far off. LSU is scoring 36.7 points per game and netting 389 yards per.  Both numbers are low considering the quality of competition they have faced so far.  The running game seems off with RB Corey Kiner only at 130 yards (23 carries) after 3 games… maybe that’s because RB Tyrion Davis-Price has had more carries (27) for less yards 72. The rushing game only has 2 touchdowns total.  WR Kayshon Boutte and WR Jack Beck have combined for 30 catches and 378 yards. The receiving corps is doing their part.

Mississippi State passes the ball!  It’s what they do and maybe all they want to do.  Quarterback Will Rogers is 122-163 for 1,083 yards, 8 touchdowns, 1 interception. The team is scoring a Mike Leach low of 29.3 points, 406.3 yards per game.  The problem may be that they also aren’t running the ball well or often enough.  RB Jo’quavious Marks leads the team with 83 yards over 3 games… RB Dillon Johnson comes in just behind with 79 yards over 3 games… The problem could be that both those running backs have as many pass receptions as carries. They have not and will not face a defense that isn’t privy to this information.



Defensive Analysis

LSU is the 48th ranked defense in the country.  That is not national championship level but it is early in the season.

Miss State is in a 3 way tie for 70th in the nation at defense.  That ranking is generous.  


 

Tigers vs Bulldogs Prediction 

Our prediction for Saturday, September 25th is…. LSU 42 - Miss St 24 

LSU has the corners it will take to get stops.  MS defense doesn’t have the secondary necessary.  

 


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NCAAF Betting Trends

LSU has covered the spread one time in 3 games.
LSU has 1 Over in 3 games.
Mississippi State has covered the spread once in 3 games.
Mississippi State has 1 Over in 3 games.


Key Injuries

LSU:  Myles Brennan, has been out so far all season, will be Out.

Players to Watch

LSU:  WR Koy Moore.  This back up wide receiver is a coiled spring of talent.  If this sophomore gets some big catches while Miss St is chasing the others around, LSU wins easily.

Miss St: Dillon Johnson.  He must be given more carries if just to keep the defense from dropping everybody into coverage. 


Notable Quotes

“Well you’re going to be dead in a hundred years anyway so live dangerously” - Mike Leach, showing blatant disregard for caution and immediate survival.

“Bring your ass on, in your sissy blue shirt.”  - Ed Orgeron to a UCLA fan.  Demonstrating the class and necessary polish it takes to be a college-level educator in the state of Louisiana. 


Starting Lineups

LSU:  QB  Max Johnson, RB Tyrion Davis-Price, WR Kayshon Boutte, WR Trey Palmer, WR Jaray Jenkins, TE Kole Taylor

Miss State:  QB Will Rogers, RB Jo’quavious Marks, WR Malik Heath, WR Makai Polk, WR Jamire Calvin, WR Austin Williams

 


Statistical Leaders 

Mississippi State: 
Passing: Will Rogers 1,083 yards
Rushing:  Jo’quavious Marks  83 yards
Tackles:  Jett Johnson  21
Interceptions:  Jalen Green 1

LSU:
Passing:  Max Johnson  863 yards
Rushing:  Corey Kiner  130 yards
Receiving:  Kayshon Boutte
Tackles:  Damone Clark  27
Interceptions:  Eli Ricks 1


 

Coaches:

LSU: Ed Orgeron.  Ed Orgeron is a fine head coach and has a National Championship to prove it. He’s not a cultured man or an erudite man or even a man whose mouth sounds free of marbles.  

Miss St:  Head coach Mike Leach brings his high powered “air raid” offense to every school he’s coached at.  They always score a bunch of points and set records for yardage.  What Mike doesn’t seem to see is his opponents are all now playing that way too. Throw the ball every time?.. As long as we are not Army… done.  Go deep with fast wide receivers and drop the ball off to a FB or TE if the Wide-outs don’t get open… yeah, we are all doing that now.

 

Weather Forecast 

Sunny.  High of 81*.  The ground will still be waterlogged around the stadium from all the recent rains which won’t clear until Wednesday night or Thursday morning. Humidity 63%.  Wear a mask if you are in Mississippi because almost no one there is vaccinated. 

 


James Q

About the Author:

James Q. has been involved with sports and gambling his entire life. A former division 1 scholarship basketball player, James understands sports (and especially basketball) inside-and-out. Following his basketball playing days, James parlayed his gambling skills into a semi-pro poker career. James resides in Los Angeles, and especially loves the Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Rams, and Los Angeles Dodgers. And when he isn't betting on sports (and writing about it), James can be found performing stand-up comedy on the Sunset Strip.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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