by Chuck Sommers
Tuesday, Sep 07, 2021
Game time: 7 p.m. ET, Sept. 11, 2021
Venue: Veterans Memorial Stadium, Troy, AL
Where to watch: ESPN+
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Liberty -4.5; O/U 61; Liberty -190, Troy +160
BetMGM: Liberty -5; O/U NA; Liberty -208, Troy +170
Caesars: Liberty -4.5; O/U 61; Liberty -200, Troy +170
Season record
Liberty: 1-0
Troy: 1-0
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Liberty - Troy preview and analysis
Recent form
Liberty: won 48-7 vs. Campbell on Sept. 4
Troy: won 55-3 vs. Southern on Sept. 4
The Hugh Freeze regime continues to take the college football world by storm.
His third year is off to a solid start after the Liberty Flames defeated Campbell 48-7 in Liberty’s home opener.
Freeze will try to become the fastest Flames coach to reach 20 wins on Saturday when the face the Troy Trojans in their first road game of the season.
The Flames didn’t start the season in the top-25, but after finishing No. 17 last season and winning the Cure Bowl, Liberty did receive votes and another win or two could vault the Flames into the top-25 with a win this week, and some help.
But the Flames are in a good spot after taking down FCS Campbell. Malik Willis threw for 217 yards, ran for 55, and had two total touchdowns in the victory. Demario Douglas had 84 yards on seven catches and a touchdown. Liberty’s defense held Campbell to 269 total yards and didn’t even require any turnovers to finish the job.
Liberty has the kind of schedule to run the table and play for one of the New Year’s Six bowls. That Nov. 6 game against Ole Miss could be the storybook of all games. Good thing we have three months to prepare for that.
The Trojans are coming off a 55-3 win over Southern on Saturday to get their season off on the right track. The Troy defense had a strong day by holding Southern to less than 300 yards and intercepting four passes between two quarterbacks.
Troy is no slouch, either. Although the Trojans have come close to a bowl game the last two seasons, falling short by one win, but is not that far removed from a 10-win season that ended in a victory in the Dollar General Bowl. Missouri transfer Taylor Powell is the mastermind behind that potential resurgence; he had 234 yards and two touchdowns.
Prediction
We have to think one of the hottest teams in the country can keep this gravy train moving. No idea what’s going on with Liberty at the moment and how they’ve turned into such a powerhouse on the Independent circuit, and on offense, but the more they keep reeling off wins, it’s hard to go against them until the end of the season. We like Liberty on the road getting the win by 10.
Betting trends
Liberty is 3-1 against the spread with Freeze on the road.
Troy is 3-6 against the spread as an underdog in the last nine.
Statistical leaders
Liberty:
Passing: Malik Willis -- 217 yards, 1 TD
Rushing: Joshua Mack -- 60 yards, 1 TD
Receiving: Demario Douglas -- 84 yards, 1 TD
Defense: Javon Scruggs -- 7 tackles
Troy:
Passing: Taylor Powell -- 234 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT
Rushing: Kimani Vidal -- 81 yards, 1 TD
Receiving: Tez Johnson -- 92 yards, 1 TD
Defense: Will Choloh -- 5 tackles, 1 sack
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
