NCAA Football: Iowa Hawkeyes vs Iowa State Cyclones Prediction, Odds and Preview - 09/11/2021

by James Q


NCAA Football:  Iowa Hawkeyes vs Iowa State Cyclones Prediction, Odds and Preview - 09/11/2021

 
Game Time:  4:30 pm ET, Saturday, September 11th, 2021
Venue:  Jack Trice Stadium, Ames, Iowa
Where to Watch:  ABC
 

Opening MLB Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Spread:  Iowa State -4.5; Over/Under:  44.5 points
BetMGM:  Spread:  Iowa State -4.5; Over/Under:  46.5 points
PointsBet:  Spread:  Iowa State -4.5; Over/Under:  46 points
 

Season Record

Iowa: 1-0 (Big Ten)  
Iowa State: 1-0 (Big-12)
Saturday will be the 68th meeting between Iowa and Iowa State.  The CY-Hawk game.  It will be the first time they are both ranked top 10.  One of them won’t be next week.
 
Larry delivered an 8-2, +$5,036 ($100/unit) 'beatdown' to the oddsmakers the 1st week of CFB 2021.  Get Larry’s picks, they’re available right now at the Shop Picks page, where you can find all of the Best Bets from our champion sports handicappers.

 

Iowa vs Iowa State Preview and Analysis

The best part of college football is when neighbors parlay the fans in attendance into a battle for state supremacy. Whatever Iowa you are from southern Iowa, northern Iowa, the silly corn-filled middle… your neighbors, kids, spouse , and that weird guy at your job,  has some vocal opinions among them over who should be the dominant school for the state.  This cy-hawk game 
 
Recent Form
   Iowa was 6-2 in 2020. They ranked 16th in the final AP poll.  It was of course a Big Ten only 6-2 because of Covid shortening the season.  They had wins against Michigan State, Minnesota, Penn State, Nebraska, Illinois, and Wisconsin.  Had they not opened 0-2 it would have been very tough for CFB to keep them out of the playoffs… but then we can say that about a dozen 2 loss teams.
Iowa State finished 2020 9-3.  An 8-2 Big 12 conference record.  They finished 9th in the final AP poll.  Lost the Big 12 Championship game to Oklahoma.  Won the Fiesta Bowl, beating a tough Oregon team.  Their regular season losses were to Louisiana and Oklahoma State.  They had big wins against traditional powerhouses Texas, Kansas, West Virginia, Kansas State, and even the first time they played Oklahoma.  

 

Offensive Analysis

 
The Iowa Hawkeyes offense averaged 31.8 points a game in a very successful 2020 season.  Their high placement in the AP was due to their two losses coming against Purdue and Northwestern… and those were very very close games.  Quarterback Spencer Petras is back from last season to lead Iowa and had 13 for 27 passing with 145 yards, 0 TD and 0 INT.  He has played quarterback in all or part of 12 Iowa games with career stats 56.2 completion percentage and 1,739 yards.  He is a classic game manager, doing enough in the passing game to keep the defense from cheating up on the run game.  Iowa will be looking to get the ball to TE Sam LaPorta.
 
Iowa State’s offense is helmed at QB by Brock Purdy who opened the season with 199 yards passing and 58 yards rushing.  He has a career 62 touchdown to 25 interception mark.  He is solid but not spectacular.  Brock doesn’t have to be spectacular with the Iowa State running game next to him.  RB Breece Hall is the best at the running back position in the Big-12.  His early production will open up the field for Iowa State.  They will have to lean on that strong Iowa State offensive line.
 
Defensive Analysis
 
 
Iowa State LB Mike Rose is the reigning Big 12 defensive player of the year is back.  This is great news since Iowa State’s defense is the strongest bone in the team’s skeleton.  Iowa State struggled against Northern Iowa to open the season.  The defense had to bring the win home. The lead tackler was Jake Hummel with 10.  DL Will McDonald has the Iowa State record for sacks in a season and he has never been a starter.  This year he will start in the place of JaQuan Bailey who left for the NFL.  The rest of the line will be sorted out using Isaiah Lee at Tackle and redshirt freshman J.R. Singleton (remember that name and the NFL draft in 2 years).   Coordinator Jon Heacock will have to be at the top of his game this year to match last season’s success. 
 
The Iowa defense ran over poor Indiana in the opener.  The D-line routinely busted through the o-line and into the backfield or quarterback's face.  Cornerback Riley Moss had an interception that he returned for a TD, then Riley Moss had another for a TD… Then Dane Belton got an interception but no TD.… so technically had Iowa never scored the Defense would have entirely won the game. Iowa defensive coordinator Phil Parker has a lot of talent on his hands and seems to know how to use it.   Plus the black shirts are some of the most intimidating uniforms on college gameday.  This defense is primed for giving Iowa a good season.  The only question is if the offense can do their part?

 

Hawkeyes Vs Cyclones Prediction

Our prediction for Saturday, September 11th is Iowa 28 - Iowa State 21.  
    This is a slight upset prediction with an Over attached.
 
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NCAAF Betting Trends

 Iowa is 45-22 in 67 head-to-head matchups against Iowa State.
 Iowa defeated Iowa State, 18-17, in their last meeting in 2019.
Iowa State is 6-0 in its last six home games.
The O/U has hit Under in 12 of Iowa's last 18 games.
 

Key Injuries

Iowa:  No injuries reported

Iowa State:  Charlie Kolar TE (lower body)  listed as Probable for Sat.:  Sean Shaw WR (upper body)  listed as Questionable for saturday (that's worse than probable I gather?)
 

Players to Watch

Iowa:  RB Tyler Goodson.  With 99 yards in the first game and now going against a stronger defense, Tyler will have to turn it on if the passing game struggles.  Tyler getting 100+ yards in this one would be a good bellwether on if Iowa is going to win.

Iowa State:  RB Breece Hall.  Literally the same reason.  This game will be a step up on the defensive side of the ball for both teams to struggle with.  The running game is of penultimate importance.  If Breece has a 100 yard day and Tyler doesn’t and vice versa I can tell you who wins from that stat alone.
 

Notable Quotes


“For the first time Iowa and Iowa State will be in the AP top 25 on Saturday.  They will also be in the top 10…” - reporter Holly Rowe in a boring, corporate tweet that states the obvious.

 

Starting Lineups

Iowa:  QB Spencer Petras, RB Tyler Goodson, WR Tyrone Tracy Jr, WR Nico Ragaini, TE Sam LaPorta, FB Monte Pottebaum, LT Mason Richman, LG Cody Ince, C Tyler Linderbaum, RG Justin Britt, RT Nick DeJong
 
Iowa State:  QB Brock Purdy, RB Breece Hall, WR Xavier Hutchinson, WR Joe Scates, WR Tarique Milton, TE Charlie Kosar, LT Sean Foster, LG Trevor Downing, C Colin Newell, RG Derek Schweiger, RT Jake Remsberg
 

Statistical Leaders

Iowa: 
Passing:  QB Spencer Petras 145 yards
Rushing:  RB Tyler Goodson 99 yards
Sacks:  Luke Van Ness  1 sack
 
Iowa State:
Passing:  QB Brock Purdy 199 yards.
Rushing:  RB Breece Hall 69 yards
Tackles:  Mike Rose  11 tackles
Sacks:  Will McDonald  1 sack
Interception:  Isheem Young  1 INT
 
 
Coaches:
Iowa: Kirk Ferentz
Iowa State: Matt Campbell 
 

Weather Forecast

Partly Cloudy.  Daytime high of 90* right about game time.  12 mph winds.


James Q

About the Author:

James Q. has been involved with sports and gambling his entire life. A former division 1 scholarship basketball player, James understands sports (and especially basketball) inside-and-out. Following his basketball playing days, James parlayed his gambling skills into a semi-pro poker career. James resides in Los Angeles, and especially loves the Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Rams, and Los Angeles Dodgers. And when he isn't betting on sports (and writing about it), James can be found performing stand-up comedy on the Sunset Strip.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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