NCAA Football: Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs Oregon State Beavers Prediction, Odds and Preview - 09/11/2021

by James Q

NCAA Football:  Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs Oregon State Beavers Prediction, Odds and Preview - 09/11/2021

Game Time: 11:00 pm ET, Saturday, September 11th, 2021
Venue:  Reser Stadium, Corvallis, Oregon
Where to Watch:  FS1


Opening NCAAF Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Spread: Oregon State -11; Over/Under:  64 points
BetMGM:  Spread: Oregon State -11; Over/Under:  64 points
PointsBet:  Spread:  Oregon State -11; Over/Under:  64 points

Season Record

Hawaii:  1-1 (mountain West)
Oregon State: 0-1 (Pac-12)
Hawaii has that extra game played because they kicked off college football early with a loss to UCLA. Oregon lost their season opener to Purdue.  One of these teams will leave this game with 2 losses on the season… 
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Hawaii vs Oregon State Preview and Analysis

Recent Form
 Hawaii went 5-4 in 2020, 4-4 in their conference.  They took losses off Wyoming, San Diego State, Boise State, San Jose State… They beat Fresno State, New Mexico, Nevada, UNLV, and got an invite to the New Mexico Bowl where they beat Houston 28-14.  They were up and down and all over the place just to land at .500.  
Oregon State went 2-4 in 2020.  A conference only season because of Covid is really tough for Oregon State. Oregon State needs out of conference games to begin with.  The two Pac-12 opponents they got wins from were the other Pac-12 doormats Washington State and Washington (doormats in 2020, not all the time).


Offensive Analysis

 In the last game Hawaii’s offense came alive (funny how you do that when it isn’t UCLA across the line of scrimmage) against Portland State. Quarterback Chevan Cordeiro torched Portland State for 302 yards passing, 3 TD’s.  Hawaii then rushed for 4 more TD’s.  Which goes to show if Hawaii is up against a weak defense they score and keep scoring.
The Beavers offense seemed to be spinning their wheels against Purdue.  Usually the formula for Oregon State is to get their offense moving and lose if they get outscored.  QB Sam Nolan started the game and threw 10-21 with 94 yards, 0TD and 1 Interception… then he was yanked and QB Chance Nolan went 10-16 157 yards, 0 TD, 0 Int.  RB Trey Lowe was the leading rusher with 6 attempts for 27 yards, a 4.5 yards average.  RB Bj Baylor had 9 carries for 24 yards and 2 TDs that's a 2.7 yards average.  (though the goal line was involved).  WR Tevon Bradford was the lone bright spot, catching 5 balls for 75 yards.  Not a lot of forward movement.

Defensive Analysis

Hawaii’s defense always has a great mix of big Island boys (physically big and some are from the Big Island) and kids smart enough to do college in Hawaii.  (seriously, Americans plan for years to take that Hawaiin vacation) .  This year is no different.  They had a big loss to UCLA and a big win against Portland State.  The juxtaposition of good and bad defensive stats implies this is a college football medium to medium low defense.  They have leaders emerging in Darius Muasau 13 tackles, Khoury Bethley 10 tackles, DJuan Matthews, Pavihi Penei.  All these guys need to see Oregon State as their chance to get above .500 and rack up those stats against a passing game that wasn’t last week.
Oregon State’s defensive coordinator Tim Tibesar must have been pulling his hair out by the root in frustration with the undisciplined defense on display against Purdue.  Penalties, arm-tackles, giving up 30 points.  It was also the first game of the season.  Oregon State does have some quality defenders they just need a restart maybe.  Omar Speights leads Oregon State with 12 tackles
Hawaii vs Oregon State Prediction
Oregon State is favored in this one. Hawaii should be exhausted with all that travel, they played UCLA on the West Coast, back to Hawaii to play Portland State at the Aloha Stadium, then back to the West Coast to play Oregon State… Still the Rainbow Warriors are better.  Oregon State’s defense will not hold against Hawaii’s air attack.
Our prediction for Saturday September 11th is the upset…  Hawaii 28 - Oregon State 24 
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NCAAF Betting Trends

The Hawai Rainbow Warriors are 0-3 in their last 3 road games.  (long flights too)
Hawaii are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games.
The total has hit UNDER in 5 of Hawaii's last 6 games.
Oregon State is 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games.
The total has hit OVER in 4 of Oregon State's last 6 games.
The Spread for Oregon State at -11 is the largest favorite against any FBS opponent in 8 years.

Key Injuries

Hawaii: N/A
Oregon State:  N/A

Players to Watch

Hawaii: Chevan Cordeiro, he is the show.  Hawaii will attack Oregon State through the air and he’ll have to deliver to get the win.
Oregon State:  WR Trevon Bradford.  The redshirt Senior was the only consistent part of Oregon State’s offense last week.  He’ll do it again if they can decide who will get him the ball.

Notable Quotes


Starting Lineups

Hawaii:  QB Chevan Cordeiro, RB Dae Dae Hunter, RB/WR Calvin Turner, WR Aaron Cephus, WR Jared Smart, TE Caleb Phillips, LT ILm Manning, LG Micah Vanterpool, C Kohl Levao, RG Solo Vaipulu, RT Gene Pryor
Oregon State: QB ?... is it Sam Noyer? Tristan Gebbia?  Chance Nolan?  RB BJ Baylor, WR Zeriah Beason, WR Trevon Bradford, WR Tyjon Lindsey, TE Teagan Quitoriano, LT Joshua Gray, LG Jake Levengood, C Nathan Eldridge RG Nous Keobounnam, RT Brandon Kipper

Statistical Leaders

Passing:  Chevan Cordeiro, averaging 262 yards per game
Rushing:  Dae Dae Hunter,  averaging 74 yards per game
Receiving:  Nick Mardner, averaging 18 yards per catch for 66 per game
Oregon State:
Passing: Chance Nolan 157 yards
Rushing: Trey Lowe 27 yards
Receiving: Trevon Bradford 75 yards

Weather Forecast

Mostly Sunny.  78* for a high, winds at 10 mph.

James Q

About the Author:

James Q. has been involved with sports and gambling his entire life. A former division 1 scholarship basketball player, James understands sports (and especially basketball) inside-and-out. Following his basketball playing days, James parlayed his gambling skills into a semi-pro poker career. James resides in Los Angeles, and especially loves the Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Rams, and Los Angeles Dodgers. And when he isn't betting on sports (and writing about it), James can be found performing stand-up comedy on the Sunset Strip.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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