by Chuck Sommers
Thursday, Sep 16, 2021
Game time: 10:10 p.m. ET, Sept. 18, 2021
Venue: LaVell Edwards Stadium, Provo, UT
Where to watch: ESPN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Arizona State -4.5; O/U 50.5; Arizona State -190, BYU +160
BetMGM: Arizona State -4; O/U 51.5; Arizona State -175, BYU +145
Caesars: Arizona State -4; O/U 51; Arizona State -180, BYU +155
Season record
No. 19 Arizona State: 2-0
No. 23 BYU: 2-0
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Arizona State - BYU preview and analysis
Recent form
Arizona State: won 37-10 vs. UNLV on Sept. 11
BYU: won 26-17 vs. Utah on Sept. 11
The Arizona State Sun Devils have not had a formidable opponent to this point. The BYU Cougars have played two teams from the Pac-12 and have won both.
Something has to give, right?
BYU, now No. 23 in the country, will welcome head coach Herm Edwards and his group to Provo in what will be unquestionably the toughest task for the Sun Devils three games into their season.
Coming into this week’s matchup, Arizona State is coming off a 37-10 win over the UNLV Rebels last Saturday. The score would indicate it was a blowout all the way through, and considering the opponent one wouldn’t be wrong in thinking that. But UNLV actually kept it close and led 10-7 at one point in the first half before the Rebels forgot how to play offense in the second half.
As Edwards said, they play college football and get scholarships, too. One would probably disagree with that, but I digress.
ASU quarterback Jayden Daniels accumulated 300 total yards and two touchdowns in the win, shaking off an interception on the game’s first drive.
Yet despite easy victories against UNLV and Southern Utah to begin the season, Arizona State comes into Provo as a one-score favorite against a BYU team that seems to be flying under the radar.
The post-Zach Wilson era has gotten off to as good of a start as the now-No. 23 Cougars could have asked for. It was a lackluster showing in Week 1 against the Arizona Wildcats in Las Vegas, but BYU returned home for a two-score victory against the Utah Utes in the Holy War this past Saturday. That’s the game that ultimately matters.
What’s scary about BYU being 2-0 is we have yet to see this offense click at its full potential. Quarterback Jaren Hall has been effective both through the air and on the ground, but not quite yet to the level that his predecessor showed. Perhaps that’s why BYU comes in as a home underdog, but the Cougars defense has held teams to 16.5 points per game and their competition has proven more difficult than what ASU had to deal with.
Prediction
Arizona State has won 20 of the last 25 meetings against BYU, but ASU hasn’t visited Provo since 1998. A lot has happened since then. If Hall wants to show the country that there is no dropoff between him and Wilson, this is one of the games to do it. BYU’s defense is physical up front and will play a huge role in the Cougars winning and continuing their ascension up the AP Top 25. BYU wins by 10
Betting trends
Arizona State was 3-0 against the spread on the road last season.
BYU has not covered in five of its last eight games as a home underdog.
ASU is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games.
BYU is 5-2 ATS and straight up in its last seven as an overall underdog.
Players to watch
Arizona State: While Daniels is the focal point of the offense, you can’t forget running back Rachaad White. The ASU tail back had 90 yards and two touchdowns against UNLV. The fact he got 22 carries shows he’s not forgotten in this offense.
BYU: Cougars receiver Neil Pau’u was held to only three catches for 19 yards against Utah, but he caught his third touchdown of the season. Whether it’s a huge day or even a quiet one, Pau’u will find the end zone with no problem.
Statistical leaders
Arizona State:
Passing: Jayden Daniels -- 307 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT
Rushing: Jayden Daniels -- 165 yards; Rachaad White -- 148 yards, 4 TD
Receiving: LV Bunkley-Shelton -- 65 yards, 1 TD
Defense: Darien Butler -- 13 tackles, 2 sacks, 2 INT
BYU:
Passing: Jaren Hall -- 347 yards, 5 TD, 0 INT
Rushing: Tyler Allgeier -- 196 yards, 1 TD
Receiving: Neil Pau’u -- 145 yards, 3 TD
Defense: Keenan Pili -- 24 tackles, 1.5 sacks
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
