NCAA Final Four Breakdown

by ASA, Inc.

Tuesday, Mar 28, 2023
CONNECTICUT – Stats per KenPom
Offensive Efficiency – 3rd / Defensive Efficiency – 11th 
Strength of Schedule – 25th
Overall Record – 29-8 SU / 25-11-1 ATS
Record vs Top 100 Teams – 17-8 SU
Over/Under Record – 20-17
UCONN BREAKDOWN - Most balanced team remaining ranking into the top 11 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency.  No other team remaining ranks in the top 25 in each.  Defense has been outstanding in the tourney allowing just 59 PPG thus far.  The Huskies have held their 4 NCAA tournament opponents (Iona, St Mary’s, Arkansas, & Gonzaga), a combined 74 points below their season scoring average which equates to 18.5 PPG below their average per team.  That includes holding the nation’s top scoring offense, Gonzaga, to just 54 points which is 34 points below their average.  The UConn offense has done their part as well scoring at least 82 points in 3 of their 4 tourney games.  They are shooting 49.5% in the Big Dance and they have out rebounded their opponents by 49 or +12.25 boards per game.  The Huskies do have a few weaknesses to note.  They foul too much with 24% of their opponent’s points coming from the FT line (7th most nationally) and they turn the ball over quite a bit (almost 19% TO rate).  They have won each of their NCAA tournament games by at least 15 points and their average scoring margin in the Dance is +22.5.   

FAU – Stats per KenPom
Offensive Efficiency – 24th / Defensive Efficiency – 29th  
Strength of Schedule – 114th 
Overall Record – 35-3 SU / 24-11-1 ATS
Record vs Top 100 Teams – 9-1 SU
Over/Under Record – 18-17-1
FAU BREAKDOWN – The Owls are quite balanced as one of only 2 teams remaining that rank in the top 30 in both offensive and defensive efficiency (UConn is the other).  They have had 4 tight games in the tourney with all of their wins coming by single digits.  The Owls average scoring margin in the Big Dance is +4.75 and they trailed with under 10 minutes remaining in all 4 of their games.  They rely very heavily on shooting the 3 with 37% of their points coming from deep (25th most nationally) and they shoot it well at 36.5% from beyond the arc.  FAU is a deep team with 9 players averaging double digit minutes on the season and they have only 1 senior in their regular rotation.  Their weaknesses would include not getting to the FT line very often (302nd nationally in points from the charity stripe) and the Owls don’t create many turnovers defensively (181st).  Their strength of schedule is the lowest remaining, however Conference USA has proven to be better than most anticipated.  As of Monday, CUSA is 15-1 SU and 13-3 ATS in post-season tournament play with FAU, Charlotte, UNT, and UAB all playing in the NCAA, NIT, or CBI.  
MIAMI FL – Stats per KenPom
Offensive Efficiency – 5th / Defensive Efficiency – 104th  
Strength of Schedule – 65th 
Overall Record – 29-7 SU / 22-14 ATS
Record vs Top 100 Teams – 17-5 SU
Over/Under Record – 17-18-1
MIAMI BREAKDOWN – This is a veteran team that made it to the Elite 8 last season so they know what a deep run in the tourney is all about.  Their guard play is among the best in the country with Isaiah Wong (16 PPG) and Nigel Pack (14 PPG) both able to score from deep each hitting over 38% from 3 point land.  The Canes had the toughest run through the Sweet 16 / Elite 8 having to take out both Houston (the #2 overall seed in the tournament) and Texas (the #6 overall seed in the tournament).  This is a high level offensive team averaging 80 PPG on the season along with being one of the most efficient teams in the country (5th).  They have scored at least 85 points in each of their last 3 games vs Indiana, Houston, and Texas with the last 2 opponents each ranking inside the top 15 in defensive efficiency.  The obvious weakness for the Canes is on the defensive end.  They are the only team remaining that does not rank inside the top 30 in defensive efficiency and the actually fall outside the top 100 in that statistic.  Miami isn’t a big team with no starter taller than 6’7 and opponents have been able to score both midrange (277th)  and at the rim (96th) on this team.  They have been a bit unlucky with opponents making nearly 75% of their FT’s this season.  The Hurricanes have been a fantastic underdog going 20-5 ATS in that role the last 2 seasons.  
SAN DIEGO STATE – Stats per KenPom
Offensive Efficiency – 75th / Defensive Efficiency – 4th   
Strength of Schedule – 35th
Overall Record – 31-6 SU / 19-15-2 ATS
Record vs Top 100 Teams – 17-6 SU
Over/Under Record – 14-22
SAN DIEGO STATE BREAKDOWN – The Aztecs live and die with their defense which is one of the best in the country ranking 4th in efficiency while allowing 64 PPG.  Because of that defense this team has been an Under machine down the stretch with each of their last 12 games going Under the total.  The strength of their outstanding defense is at the 3 point line where they hold opponents to just 27% shooting on the season (2nd nationally).  SDSU has allowed only 57 PPG in the Big Dance with 3 of their 4 opponents failing to reach 60 points.  Their 4 opponents in the NCAA tournament have attempted a combined 94 three pointers and made only 16 of those shots (17%).  They’ve held their opponents to just 34% shooting overall in the Big Dance.  The Aztecs defense needs to be very good because their offense isn’t great.  They rank outside the top 200 nationally in eFG% and they are making less than 42% of their shots in the tourney thus far.  SDSU is a deep, veteran team with 9 players averaging more than 10 minutes per game and all are upperclassmen.  They play at a slow tempo and really make teams work for good shots with opponents averaging nearly 19 s 

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